WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4343
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#21 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jul 01, 2025 8:24 am

06Z Euro, landfall over extreme northern Luzon...
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145232
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2025 10:50 am

Looks like PAGASA has upgraded 98W.

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1940049044912623623

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145232
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2025 1:14 pm

Upgraded to medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.4N 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.0E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CASIGURAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011123Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDING AND BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF (30-31 C). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS OVERALL AGREE ON A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145232
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2025 7:46 pm

18z Euro.

Image

18z GFS.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4343
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#25 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jul 01, 2025 8:03 pm



The Euro run is still 12z
1 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145232
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2025 8:41 pm

Hayabusa wrote:


The Euro run is still 12z


Now this is the 18z. Only goes to 144 hours and is weaker than past run.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145232
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2025 10:20 pm

The waters in the area are very warm and will help the system develop with that fuel.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4343
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#28 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jul 02, 2025 2:05 am

Weaker on the 00z run too...
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4343
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#29 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jul 02, 2025 5:14 am

Latest GFS either a center relocation to the west or a new invest...
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4343
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#30 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jul 02, 2025 8:24 am

06z eps, maybe the Euro AI was onto something despite its recent failed hype (97W)
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145232
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2025 10:36 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145232
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2025 11:44 am

Look at the loop 12z GFS has. :D

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145232
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#33 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2025 3:15 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.3N 123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 121.7E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLC. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM CALAYAN, PHILIPPINES REPORT
WESTERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH FROM A SHIP IS
REPORTING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 14 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20
KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, WITH ECENS TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD AND GEFS
SHOWING ERRATIC, SLOW TRACK MOTION. IN GENERAL, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SLOW, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4343
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#34 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jul 03, 2025 7:06 am

Looks improving on the satellite... while Euro 06z makes it a TS within the next 24hours
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145232
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#35 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2025 2:08 pm

TCFA issued.

WTPN21 PGTW 031900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 155 NM RADIUS OF 19.4N 119.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.3N 123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VIGAN, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER AND AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING DEVELOPING ON THE OUTER PERIMETER OF THE
LLCC. PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES AT 031305Z AND 031356Z OUTLINE THE OUTERMOST
EDGES OF THE CIRCULATION, HOWEVER NOT THE CIRCULATION ITSELF WHICH
WAS IN THE NADIR GAP, AND INDICATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND
BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 VWS),
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS GFS, ECMWF AND CMC AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD, WHILE TAKING THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TRACK AS WELL, ENCENS MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AND
GEFS MOVES MORE NORTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT
TIMELINE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041900Z.//
NNNN


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145232
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#36 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2025 3:28 pm

Looks ready to be a TC.

Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#37 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 03, 2025 5:04 pm

This is a full on TC lol
3 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4343
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#38 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jul 03, 2025 5:23 pm

18z JMA
WWJP27 RJTD 031800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 119E ALMOST STATIONARY.
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
StormWeather
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:34 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - Discussion

#39 Postby StormWeather » Thu Jul 03, 2025 5:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:Looks ready to be a TC.

https://i.imgur.com/eZvtyTr.gif

It looks like it is getting even better defined. This has got to be a TC, but it is up to JMA (and the JTWC)
0 likes   
Just your average cyclone tracker

Cyclones experienced;

Debby 24’

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145232
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 05W - Discussion

#40 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2025 8:07 pm

JTWC up to TD.

05W FIVE 250704 0000 19.7N 118.7E WPAC 25 1001
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2025”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests