WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hayabusa]

06Z Euro, landfall over extreme northern Luzon...

[cycloneye]

Looks like PAGASA has upgraded 98W.

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1940049044912623623

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.4N 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.0E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CASIGURAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011123Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDING AND BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF (30-31 C). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS OVERALL AGREE ON A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

18z Euro.



18z GFS.

[Hayabusa]

18z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/etd7kli.gif

18z GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/wKUTpUG.gif

The Euro run is still 12z

[cycloneye]

18z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/etd7kli.gif

18z GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/wKUTpUG.gif

The Euro run is still 12z

Now this is the 18z. Only goes to 144 hours and is weaker than past run.

[cycloneye]

The waters in the area are very warm and will help the system develop with that fuel.

[Hayabusa]

Weaker on the 00z run too...

[Hayabusa]

Latest GFS either a center relocation to the west or a new invest...

[Hayabusa]

06z eps, maybe the Euro AI was onto something despite its recent failed hype (97W)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1940411506635735401

[cycloneye]

Look at the loop 12z GFS has.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.3N 123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 121.7E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLC. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM CALAYAN, PHILIPPINES REPORT
WESTERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH FROM A SHIP IS
REPORTING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 14 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20
KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, WITH ECENS TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD AND GEFS
SHOWING ERRATIC, SLOW TRACK MOTION. IN GENERAL, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SLOW, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

Looks improving on the satellite... while Euro 06z makes it a TS within the next 24hours

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

WTPN21 PGTW 031900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 155 NM RADIUS OF 19.4N 119.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.3N 123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VIGAN, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER AND AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING DEVELOPING ON THE OUTER PERIMETER OF THE
LLCC. PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES AT 031305Z AND 031356Z OUTLINE THE OUTERMOST
EDGES OF THE CIRCULATION, HOWEVER NOT THE CIRCULATION ITSELF WHICH
WAS IN THE NADIR GAP, AND INDICATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND
BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 VWS),
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS GFS, ECMWF AND CMC AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD, WHILE TAKING THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TRACK AS WELL, ENCENS MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AND
GEFS MOVES MORE NORTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT
TIMELINE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041900Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Looks ready to be a TC.

[Kingarabian]

This is a full on TC lol

[Hayabusa]

18z JMA

WWJP27 RJTD 031800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 119E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[StormWeather]

Looks ready to be a TC.

https://i.imgur.com/eZvtyTr.gif

It looks like it is getting even better defined. This has got to be a TC, but it is up to JMA (and the JTWC)

[cycloneye]

JTWC up to TD.

05W FIVE 250704 0000 19.7N 118.7E WPAC 25 1001