ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2025071418, , BEST, 0, 296N, 780W, 20, 1016, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 100, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, SPAWNINVEST, al772025 to al932025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932025.dat

[Stratton23]

I see what looks to be a MLC to the east of palm bay, more convection focused in that area, might be an area to watch for consolidation of a new center, if thats the case that would be further south than even the ICON suggests

[BobHarlem]

[TallyTracker]

Just looking at the overall environment and current condition of the disturbance in marginal conditions, I think the development potential is much higher than 30%. The models don’t seem to have a good grasp on this one. I’d say it’s got at least a 50% chance of development. Even the NHC is saying conditions look favorable for development despite the 30%. The ICON’s prediction of a TS to Cat 1 Hurricane seems a reasonable outcome.

[BobHarlem]

PTC or TD first? (or neither or jump to Dexter)

[cycloneye]

PTC or TD first? (or neither or jump to Dexter)

It depends on what recon finds in terms of organization and intensity.

[Nimbus]

I see what looks to be a MLC to the east of palm bay, more convection focused in that area, might be an area to watch for consolidation of a new center, if thats the case that would be further south than even the ICON suggests

The northern apex of the visible circulation center is closer to the Cape Canaveral buoy where surface pressure was recently 1015.4 mb. surface pressure off Sebastian Inlet closer to 1014 mb. Probably defines a surface trough that may consolidate near the lowest surface pressure. Have to see what the models do with it but that was what I was seeing this morning before the visible imagery and NHC making it an invest off the east coast of Florida.

[BobHarlem]

Banding starting to appear along in the Florida thunderstorms.



I'd imagine with the evening stuff, it'll look a bit wild in a few spots in a few hours.

[Sciencerocks]

I'd go 70% in the next 2 days and this will possibly become a tropical storm before landfall on florida. Models are all over the place once in the gulf but if it does form into Dexter before florida landfall. Well, I think I'll remain Tropical storm Dexter to its second landfall and ICON becomes very much more likely.

[Woofde]

Just looking at the overall environment and current condition of the disturbance in marginal conditions, I think the development potential is much higher than 30%. The models don’t seem to have a good grasp on this one. I’d say it’s got at least a 50% chance of development. Even the NHC is saying conditions look favorable for development despite the 30%. The ICON’s prediction of a TS to Cat 1 Hurricane seems a reasonable outcome.

Haven't had the time to really dive into the details of this one, but I took a look at the floater imagery and 30% seem bearishly low. There's quite strong convection and some spiraling already present.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1944834723928240437

[Ivanhater]

Banding is increasing. Not sure why they kept it at 30 percent. The good news, should have plenty of surface obs being close to shore

[cycloneye]

Maybe they do a STWO to upgrade the percentage?

[BobHarlem]

[cycloneye]

Josh is anxious to chase. Will he get a chance to do it?

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1944831880253030588

[hurricane2025]

Yeah models have done a bad job

[TampaWxLurker]

Interesting spot/direction for cyclogenesis and supposed eventual movement. Homegrown systems from stalled fronts that end up moving west usually seem to form more often in the eastern Gulf. Stuff like this forming just off the east coast of FL (in my somewhat hazy memory) seem to generally move north/northeast. Hopefully it doesn't get too much time to develop before moving over us.

Looking at the SST's, it's right over the Gulf stream, in water currently at ~29.5° C, warm but not super hot. JUST to the west of where it is though is a relatively cool area of SST's, offshore of Canaveral and the Treasure Coast. SST's in the 26-28° C range. Will have to see if the blob continues due south over the warmer gulf stream or tracks closer to those cooler waters near the coast.

[BobHarlem]

A little pop up tower or something due east of Cape Canaveral.

[Steve]

Picture didn't come through, but it can't have an eyewall at this stage. It can have a center of circulation of course.