Low Pressure Area off the SE U.S. Coast (Is Invest 95L)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Western Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form on Saturday along a
frontal system off of the southeastern coast of the United States.
Additional slow development could occur through early next week as
the system moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Beven

[TomballEd]

Been a solid ensemble signal for a week. Most are quite week, most move NE away from all land.

Close to closing off a circulation at some level. Low ceiling but I think current 10/20 probs may be a bit pessimistic.

[TomballEd]

I posted a loop of the Carolinas lemon in that thread. That thing is close to closing off a low. Not much suggesting a strong system or a land impact but I think it is breaking off from the trough that spawned it.

Strong hints on the ensembles (and I consider a 15 day run of the op as just another ensemble) The Atlantic MDR one seems most favored. But seeing seeing support for a Caribbean/Gulf system coming from the wave ahead of and behind the most favored wave. Euro 2 storms simultaneously and GFS developing system approaching Florida at ensemble range time suggests a switch does flip in about two weeks for systems of tropical origin.

[BobHarlem]

Already looks half decent on radar:

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's getting there, but it is still connected to the front. It will need to break away from that.

[floridasun]

this likely going gave rip current to beach off north Carolina and north that it maybe Bermuda need watch it

[NDG]

18z GFS is very aggressive with another low pressure forming in the area after the current low pressure exits to the east, from another piece of energy left behind.
CMC and ICON also show a weak of low pressure forming next week but not as aggressive as the GFS.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1951776366011077068

[BobHarlem]

Interesting 18z gfs run in the wake of the 30% lemon,
Gets a hurricane very close to the Outer Banks, then gets near Cape Cod before heading up toward the Canadian Maritimes.

[AnnularCane]

Interesting 18z gfs run in the wake of the 30% lemon,
Gets a hurricane very close to the Outer Banks, then gets near Cape Cod before heading up toward the Canadian Maritimes.

https://i.postimg.cc/vB7mBGhd/gfs-mslp-wind-eus-fh96-246.gif

Giving the Delmarva a little kiss before heading out.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is a pretty big blowup right over where the rotation center is located. Looks much better than this morning

[AJC3]

Invest 95L is up