Low Pressure Area off the SE U.S. Coast (Is Invest 95L)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Western Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form on Saturday along a
frontal system off of the southeastern coast of the United States.
Additional slow development could occur through early next week as
the system moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Beven

[TomballEd]

Been a solid ensemble signal for a week. Most are quite week, most move NE away from all land.

Close to closing off a circulation at some level. Low ceiling but I think current 10/20 probs may be a bit pessimistic.

[TomballEd]

I posted a loop of the Carolinas lemon in that thread. That thing is close to closing off a low. Not much suggesting a strong system or a land impact but I think it is breaking off from the trough that spawned it.

Strong hints on the ensembles (and I consider a 15 day run of the op as just another ensemble) The Atlantic MDR one seems most favored. But seeing seeing support for a Caribbean/Gulf system coming from the wave ahead of and behind the most favored wave. Euro 2 storms simultaneously and GFS developing system approaching Florida at ensemble range time suggests a switch does flip in about two weeks for systems of tropical origin.

[BobHarlem]

Already looks half decent on radar:

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's getting there, but it is still connected to the front. It will need to break away from that.

[floridasun]

this likely going gave rip current to beach off north Carolina and north that it maybe Bermuda need watch it

[BobHarlem]

Interesting 18z gfs run in the wake of the 30% lemon,
Gets a hurricane very close to the Outer Banks, then gets near Cape Cod before heading up toward the Canadian Maritimes.

[AnnularCane]

Interesting 18z gfs run in the wake of the 30% lemon,
Gets a hurricane very close to the Outer Banks, then gets near Cape Cod before heading up toward the Canadian Maritimes.

https://i.postimg.cc/vB7mBGhd/gfs-mslp-wind-eus-fh96-246.gif

Giving the Delmarva a little kiss before heading out.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is a pretty big blowup right over where the rotation center is located. Looks much better than this morning

[AJC3]

Invest 95L is up