WPAC: PODUL - Post-Tropical

[StormWeather]

From the most recent JTWC discussion on 16W

EXCEPT FOR THE COAMPS-TC (GFS) WHICH INSISTS THAT THIS WILL BE A SUPER-TYPHOON ONE DAY

[ElectricStorm]

6z HWRF has around 125kts Cat 4, while HAFS-A has a high-end Cat 2 with a large core. 12z runs will be out in a couple hours to compare

[ElectricStorm]

12z HWRF much weaker. HAFS-A about the same. GFS slightly weaker as well but still probably Cat 3 range

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS PODUL.

T2511(Podul)
Issued at 2025/08/07 19:05 UTC
Analysis at 08/07 18 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°50′ (18.8°)
E146°20′ (146.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 165 km (9

[cycloneye]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS and ECMWF show near-dissipation before it even reaches Taiwan.... so much for that. Shear essentially kills the system it seems

[Hayabusa]

I guess it depends how north it goes, Euro AI is not showing a dissipation scenario

[mrbagyo]

It's totally naked right now hence agencies are pumpingbthe breaks on RI

[cycloneye]

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS once again very weak. Looks like the chance for a strong typhoon might be diminishing, especially if it takes a track further to the north.

[Hayabusa]

Looks like the center may now be under the deep convection, watch if it tries to rapidly develop tonight...

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/frontierfcst/status/1953879942631915998

[sasha_B]

Between the latest microwave imagery and the steadily rising ADT numbers, I think Podul is quite possibly stronger than the 45 kts / 999 hPa currently listed on ATCF Best Track for 18z & continuing to strengthen. It would have to make it to 65 knots by 0z tomorrow (or 70 kts by 12z) to meet the minimal 24hr RI threshold, however. For what it's worth, the last update from the JMA has intensity at 45 knots (10-minute sustained) and 994 hPa, closer to the recent objective & subjective Dvorak estimates of T3.5.

[cycloneye]

[Hayabusa]

Another attempt this night

[Hayabusa]

Up to STS

T2511(Podul)
Issued at 2025/08/09 12:50 UTC
Analysis at 08/09 12 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°05′ (21.1°)
E140°35′ (140.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 220 km (120 NM)

[Hayabusa]

12z Euro AI is still on a track towards south of Taiwan/Luzon Strait

[cycloneye]

[Hayabusa]

JMA up to TY

T2511(Podul)
Issued at 2025/08/10 00:45 UTC
Analysis at 08/10 00 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°05′ (21.1°)
E138°30′ (138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 95 km (50 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE280 km (150 NM)
SW220 km (120 NM)

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro now intensify before a Taiwan landfall