WPAC: PODUL - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: 16W - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby StormWeather » Thu Aug 07, 2025 9:43 am

From the most recent JTWC discussion on 16W

EXCEPT FOR THE COAMPS-TC (GFS) WHICH INSISTS THAT THIS WILL BE A SUPER-TYPHOON ONE DAY
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Re: WPAC: 16W - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Aug 07, 2025 10:32 am

6z HWRF has around 125kts Cat 4, while HAFS-A has a high-end Cat 2 with a large core. 12z runs will be out in a couple hours to compare
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Re: WPAC: 16W - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Aug 07, 2025 1:40 pm

12z HWRF much weaker. HAFS-A about the same. GFS slightly weaker as well but still probably Cat 3 range
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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2025 3:14 pm

JMA upgrades to TS PODUL.

T2511(Podul)
Issued at 2025/08/07 19:05 UTC
Analysis at 08/07 18 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°50′ (18.8°)
E146°20′ (146.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 165 km (9
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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2025 3:28 pm

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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Aug 07, 2025 5:55 pm

GFS and ECMWF show near-dissipation before it even reaches Taiwan.... so much for that. Shear essentially kills the system it seems
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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Aug 07, 2025 7:15 pm

I guess it depends how north it goes, Euro AI is not showing a dissipation scenario
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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Aug 07, 2025 8:35 pm

It's totally naked right now hence agencies are pumpingbthe breaks on RI
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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2025 9:43 pm

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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Aug 07, 2025 11:42 pm

0z GFS once again very weak. Looks like the chance for a strong typhoon might be diminishing, especially if it takes a track further to the north.
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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Aug 08, 2025 6:39 am

Looks like the center may now be under the deep convection, watch if it tries to rapidly develop tonight...
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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Aug 08, 2025 1:24 pm

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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby sasha_B » Fri Aug 08, 2025 2:39 pm

Between the latest microwave imagery and the steadily rising ADT numbers, I think Podul is quite possibly stronger than the 45 kts / 999 hPa currently listed on ATCF Best Track for 18z & continuing to strengthen. It would have to make it to 65 knots by 0z tomorrow (or 70 kts by 12z) to meet the minimal 24hr RI threshold, however. For what it's worth, the last update from the JMA has intensity at 45 knots (10-minute sustained) and 994 hPa, closer to the recent objective & subjective Dvorak estimates of T3.5.
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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 09, 2025 5:23 am

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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Aug 09, 2025 6:03 am

Another attempt this night
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Aug 09, 2025 8:36 am

Up to STS
T2511(Podul)
Issued at 2025/08/09 12:50 UTC
Analysis at 08/09 12 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°05′ (21.1°)
E140°35′ (140.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 220 km (120 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Aug 09, 2025 12:28 pm

12z Euro AI is still on a track towards south of Taiwan/Luzon Strait
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 09, 2025 4:10 pm

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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Typhoon

#39 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Aug 09, 2025 9:02 pm

JMA up to TY
T2511(Podul)
Issued at 2025/08/10 00:45 UTC
Analysis at 08/10 00 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°05′ (21.1°)
E138°30′ (138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 95 km (50 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE280 km (150 NM)
SW220 km (120 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Aug 10, 2025 8:30 pm

Latest Euro now intensify before a Taiwan landfall
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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