Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 97L)

[OuterBanker]

Models are all over the place. GFS alone went from TX landfall to OTS around 70 w from 12 z to 18z. What's that some couple thousand mile difference.

Euro also all over the place including the Euro AI.

Thank God they all have moved away from the nightmare scenario OBX to Boston hitting the east coast heavily populated major cities.

[REDHurricane]

I see a pretty formidable moisture envelope headed out into the most favorable MDR conditions we've seen to date and a decent-looking low-level vorticity already... maybe it won't develop quite as rapidly as the GFS is forecasting, but I'd guess that this one has better odds than not of eventually becoming our first hurricane this year.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT captures a good circulation around 10N.

[StormWeather]

ASCAT captures a good circulation around 10N.

https://i.imgur.com/dzxFfaP.jpeg

If it already has a circulation getting going, that’s not good.

[ROCK]

Haha that 12Z GFS puts a 933 Cat 5 into West end of Galveston on Aug 22nd them the 18Z sends it OTS…talk about opposite runs…

[cycloneye]

[LarryWx]

ASCAT captures a good circulation around 10N.

https://i.imgur.com/dzxFfaP.jpeg

If it already has a circulation getting going, that’s not good.

Not necessarily because a stronger system might tend to recurve sooner. That’s not always the case by any means but it’s often the case. A weaker system in the E ATL might portend more danger to the W ATL.

[Cpv17]

I personally think some of the models are strengthening this too quickly.

[SconnieCane]

18Z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/UWu1qGM.gif

No posts dismissing it as the "happy hour run" when it doesn't show a high-impact outcome...

[Keldeo1997]

New GFS is running and the ridge is much stronger this run. Storm way further south than 18Z at 132 H and looks like it might take a Irma path

[LarryWx]

0Z UK has it again and it’s stronger (TS) though it’s further N:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.0N 54.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2025 132 22.0N 54.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 15.08.2025 144 23.3N 57.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 156 25.5N 59.1W 1007 41
0000UTC 16.08.2025 168 26.8N 61.6W 1006 44

[Keldeo1997]

Now sure how this thing avoids land this run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1311237382682447893/1403595840945393725/Screenshot_2025-08-08_232826.png?ex=68981ffe&is=6896ce7e&hm=b54b66a7551be41696a19478856a43343bfa84a7161b85407e1fa5c71773c00b&

Now sure how this thing avoids land this run.

Idk if anybody has noticed, but these runs have been hinting at a slight WSW dip before the islands. A scaled down version of the motion of an "I" storm in 2017.

[Kohlecane]

New GFS is running and the ridge is much stronger this run. Storm way further south than 18Z at 132 H and looks like it might take a Irma path

yeah, just a touch more South and stronger at 204 than the 06/12z runs, albeit both those having two completely different scenarios GOM v. coast rider/OTS

[Hurricaneman]

The 0z GFS seems to be starting the turn in or near the Bahamas this run, possibly even similar to the 12z Euro

[Fancy1002]

Doubt North Carolina is getting out of this run unscathed.

[Beef Stew]

0z GFS into NC after turning north near the Bahamas. Welcome back Fran.

[Hurricaneman]

Actually it’s not far off from the 12zEuro especially if it doesn’t take that suspicious NNW bend on the 0zGFS

the 0zGFS seems very Gloria or Floyd like, this will need to be watched the next few days and see if we can hone in on potential locations especially the northern lesser Antilles

Turns east at the end of the run and misses the New York and New England area

[canebeard]

It's not going to take any other previous storm's path. No two snowflakes are alike.

[Category5Kaiju]

Most recent GFS run is very ugly for North Carolina and Virginia.