BobHarlem wrote:Last frame of 12z Canadian, large left (SW) shift from 0z which was east of the Bahamas.
https://i.imgur.com/2lTQErB.png
Canadian is developing it more slowly, 1003 mb in 168 hours versus 971 mb. A shallow system doesn't feel the weakness the strong GFS system feels. It starts feeling the weakness and bending N only after it starts strengthening after Puerto Rico. I think the Canadian keeping the system weak until 60W is wrong. The GFS does have an ensemble member that is only 1005 mb approaching the NE Caribbean similar to the Canadian and then starts turning NW as it strengthens. That particular ensemble hits Puerto Rico, probably as a Cat 1.
Florida/Gulf threat is low but could happen if 97L stays weak. I expect ensembles will show that.