ATL: ERIN - Models

[TomballEd]

Last frame of 12z Canadian, large left (SW) shift from 0z which was east of the Bahamas.
https://i.imgur.com/2lTQErB.png

Canadian is developing it more slowly, 1003 mb in 168 hours versus 971 mb. A shallow system doesn't feel the weakness the strong GFS system feels. It starts feeling the weakness and bending N only after it starts strengthening after Puerto Rico. I think the Canadian keeping the system weak until 60W is wrong. The GFS does have an ensemble member that is only 1005 mb approaching the NE Caribbean similar to the Canadian and then starts turning NW as it strengthens. That particular ensemble hits Puerto Rico, probably as a Cat 1.

Florida/Gulf threat is low but could happen if 97L stays weak. I expect ensembles will show that.

[BobHarlem]

6z (not 12!) google deepmind set (blue)

link: https://deepmind.google.com/science/go/sQ2U8OfxhHbyGaTl

[BobHarlem]

12z euro recurves 97L just east of Bermuda. The system behind it gets over NE Caribbean and into the Bahamas though.

[CycloysisNegative]

12z Euro AI very similar to the 12z GFS track wise

[chris_fit]

12z EURO will put a cap on this thread

[Stratton23]

Still a very large spread in the AIFS/ EPS ensembles, global model runs have to be taking with a massive grain of salt

[Fancy1002]

Kind of appropriate that the first intensity models for this storm will be happy hour.

[TomballEd]

Some ensembles threaten the East Coast, more curve safely out to sea.

[zzzh]

12Z EPS trended a bit north compared to the 00z EPS.

[TomballEd]

Some ensembles threaten the East Coast, more curve safely out to sea. https://i.imgur.com/HFzxSNj.png

Page 2 of the thread. For posterity. Euro family similar. I do believe I mentioned in other posts ensembles can and probably will change.

[chris_fit]

18z GFS even slightly more N through 162 hrs than 12z.

[tiger_deF]

18z GFS even slightly more N through 162 hrs than 12z.

Ridge is definitely stronger later in the run - went from being well to the North at 128 to almost at the same latitude at 162

[cycloneye]

In a few days, the gulfstream jet will fly and sample the upper atmosphere and that data will feed the models to see how the ridge is and the upper winds.

[Jxdama]

every run this goes further and further north.....looks like an easy recurve to me

[TampaWxLurker]

Oh trust me there is plenty of time for the models to windshield wiper back the other way. And then windshield wiper back to where they are now.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 18z GFS has this thing getting extremely close to North Carolina.

[Stratton23]

Jxdama its far from a easy recurve with this one, too many variables in play , even just a slight change in ridge orientation and strength over the SE US and any changes with shortwaves can drastically alter 97L’s path

[TampaWxLurker]

In the last few frames so far, the 18z GFS wants to go full Hurricane Bob on New England.

Edit: Yup. Landfall Newport/Martha's Vinyard as a 959/964 mb hurricane.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS landfalls in Massachusetts. New Bedford/Martha's Vineyard.

[ScottNAtlanta]

18z GFS landfalls in Massachusetts. New Bedford/Martha's Vineyard.

https://i.imgur.com/67eKhqR.png

JB must be gettin' the shakes from that one
That's like Carol