Wave Over the North Central Gulf

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've been watching this wave as it has been moving over the Atlantic and is now close to or over Florida. Yesterday there was a distinct wind shift between the east and west coast. Today the convection is really blowing up off the east coast. There doesn't seem to be much model support, but waves in this area with the amount of oceanic heat should always be watched, especially so close to the coast where things can unexpectedly spin up

[Steve H.]

I’ve been watching it too. Has a bit of a spin to it. Reminds me of ts Jerry in 95, though probably just a lot of rain.

[ronjon]

Definitely a rotation SW of Naples now in the GOM on radar. Can't tell if it's mid-level or at the surface.

[Nimbus]

Gulf buoys are not showing any major surface pressure drops ~29.92.
Might be something small southeast of buoy 42001 which has been reporting winds from 20 degrees.

[stormhunter7]

Looks like a high has built over the top of this mid level low. Will it work down to the surface in SE Gulf???

[Tailgater33]

Yes it clearly has an upper high over top but any surface feature is weak and stretched out. Something to watch though, .97L is too far out to concern me

[HurricaneBelle]

Radar showing about 10" of rain around Sanibel from this system, quite an impressive display right now.

[ronjon]

Big blowup of convection off SW coast of FL this morning. Some hint of rotation. Upper level high overhead. Lowest pressure is bouy about 50 mi SW of Ft Myers at 29.95 which is reporting SW winds. Lowest air pressure from coastal stations at Sarasota and Placida.

[BobHarlem]

It shows decently (but not great) on the 850 vorticity charts

[BobHarlem]

A few more are picking up on this

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1954516821299679578


 https://x.com/cfhc/status/1954519217417429468


 https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/1954518226261406066

[ChrisH-UK]

Radar out of Key West is showing it starting to curl up to get a circulation and on satellite it looks to be blooming up. To me it has that look of a pop up storm with the waters nice and toastie.

[redingtonbeach]

Rainmaker, for sure.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/sfwmd-forecast-qpf1

[ronjon]

Convection still expanding on VIS SAT. Definitely being aided by Upper level high overhead it. These home grown systems can sometimes surprise us. NWS Tampa indicating it's an inverted trough in their forecast discussions.

[MississippiWx]

Zero model support for this. Not sure why because it has good convergence at the surface and upper level anticyclone over the top. Models apparently see something to make them unenthusiastic. Hopefully it will bring some much needed rain to my house.

[StormWeather]

Zero model support for this. Not sure why because it has good convergence at the surface and upper level anticyclone over the top. Models apparently see something to make them unenthusiastic. Hopefully it will bring some much needed rain to my house.

Have we ever had a TC form with no model support before?

[Nimbus]

Looks like a high has built over the top of this mid level low. Will it work down to the surface in SE Gulf???

Surface pressures were starting to drop in the area but have not dropped below 29.9 with background high pressure of ~30.07.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... m=E&tz=CST

Lower shear at least from what we can see from the convection so maybe worth watching.

[MississippiWx]

Zero model support for this. Not sure why because it has good convergence at the surface and upper level anticyclone over the top. Models apparently see something to make them unenthusiastic. Hopefully it will bring some much needed rain to my house.

Have we ever had a TC form with no model support before?

I’m sure we have, but in today’s modern technology it would be quite the surprise. Not even mesoscale models spin it up into anything.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Zero model support for this. Not sure why because it has good convergence at the surface and upper level anticyclone over the top. Models apparently see something to make them unenthusiastic. Hopefully it will bring some much needed rain to my house.

Have we ever had a TC form with no model support before?

Hurricane Oscar last year was pretty close. It had like a 10% chance of development with pretty much no model support until recon flew in to find a robust tropical storm on the verge of becoming a hurricane.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If you look at the low level flow, it is starting to bend into the convection

[BobHarlem]

Zero model support for this. Not sure why because it has good convergence at the surface and upper level anticyclone over the top. Models apparently see something to make them unenthusiastic. Hopefully it will bring some much needed rain to my house.

Have we ever had a TC form with no model support before?

Its been off/on some ensembles. Part of this area was once 94l