ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/qzRokcW.png

It's closed

Convection is still pretty disorganized though. Probably another day before the NHC can pull the trigger.

[TampaWxLurker]

https://i.imgur.com/qzRokcW.png

Looking pretty healthy already.

Don’t think I’d ever say this but; the GFS might have been right for once (for how quickly it spun up)

That's what stands out to me. The GFS has done very well in the near short-term with this storm to this point on organization, intensity and direction.

I was skeptical a few days ago when it was adamant on multiple runs that the system would make a quick beeline almost directly northwest to the Cabo Verde Islands as a borderline tropical depression/storm. But here we are.

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/qzRokcW.png

It's closed

Convection is still pretty disorganized though. Probably another day before the NHC can pull the trigger.

*cough* *cough* BARRY *cough*

[ouragans]

https://i.imgur.com/qzRokcW.png

It's closed

Convection is still pretty disorganized though. Probably another day before the NHC can pull the trigger.

Maybe PTC at 15z. And if so, I think it would be the easternmost PTC since 2017

[WeatherBoy2000]

The real question is if TCG can be completed in the short term. It's currently over a pool of warmer ssts right off Africa, but it'll be traveling over more marginal ssts very soon:



There is also drier and stabler air further north as well.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's gonna be a very interesting week coming up to watch how future Erin unfolds.

I think at this point, it's pretty evident that the GFS may have actually been correct in calling for this system to rapidly spin up into a bona fide tropical storm near the Cape Verde Islands. While convection has some work to do, it's got a healthy structure already, and I think this thing will be declared as at least a TD fairly soon.

For the near future, what we know is that there seems to be a sprawling ridge in place, so this system is likely going to track westward or WNW for quite some time while over the open Atlantic as opposed to immediately being pulled poleward like Kirk or Lorenzo. There also seems to be decent consensus that this will miss islands like Puerto Rico and some of the more eastern islands that were ravaged by Irma 8 years ago at least just to the north.

Beyond that is a complete mystery. However, the one thing I will say is this doesn't seem to be as clear cut of a case as storms like Teddy, Sam, or Lee given the time of year and how there still seem to be certain ensembles and operational runs that, if showing a recurve, do so west of Bermuda as opposed to east. This could be OTS, for sure. But if the right steering currents fall into place at the right time, which we don't know for sure at this point, then this could also become a menace to the East Coast. We'll simply have to monitor in real time.

You know, I know it's not possible given such technology didn't exist back then, but it would be interesting to see how the current models we have would've interpreted a storm like the 1938 New England Hurricane, Hugo, or Edouard 1996. Which might give us more reliable examples to look at as a barometer of what could happen with 97L.

[cheezyWXguy]

It's gonna be a very interesting week coming up to watch how future Erin unfolds.

I think at this point, it's pretty evident that the GFS may have actually been correct in calling for this system to rapidly spin up into a bona fide tropical storm near the Cape Verde Islands. While convection has some work to do, it's got a healthy structure already, and I think this thing will be declared as at least a TD fairly soon.

For the near future, what we know is that there seems to be a sprawling ridge in place, so this system is likely going to track westward or WNW for quite some time while over the open Atlantic as opposed to immediately being pulled poleward like Kirk or Lorenzo. There also seems to be decent consensus that this will miss islands like Puerto Rico and some of the more eastern islands that were ravaged by Irma 8 years ago at least just to the north.

Beyond that is a complete mystery. However, the one thing I will say is this doesn't seem to be as clear cut of a case as storms like Teddy, Sam, or Lee given the time of year and how there still seem to be certain ensembles and operational runs that, if showing a recurve, do so west of Bermuda as opposed to east. This could be OTS, for sure. But if the right steering currents fall into place at the right time, which we don't know for sure at this point, then this could also become a menace to the East Coast. We'll simply have to monitor in real time.

You know, I know it's not possible given such technology didn't exist back then, but it would be interesting to see how the current models we have would've interpreted a storm like the 1938 New England Hurricane, Hugo, or Edouard 1996. Which might give us more reliable examples to look at as a barometer of what could happen with 97L.

Not sure about 1938, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if the latter cases you mention have enough observational data from the time that could be fed into today’s models to see how they would have performed. It would be cool to see someone do this, unless it’s already been done and we just haven’t seen it.

[aspen]

The real question is if TCG can be completed in the short term. It's currently over a pool of warmer ssts right off Africa, but it'll be traveling over more marginal ssts very soon:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_sst_tropatl.png

There is also drier and stabler air further north as well.

Probably nothing stronger than an upper-end TS until it hits 50W or so. Which is what most of the models show so far.

Still impressive that we may be about to see a MDR long-tracker in mid-August in a year like this. Other recent seasons with more favorable indicators and SSTA configurations have failed to yield something similar.

[Sciencerocks]

LLC based on satellite and Ascat. Looks broaderline deserving at this point of an upgrade. I'd like to see tropical storm warnings for the cape verdes.

[StormWeather]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6246/ghO4ur.gif

LLC based on satellite and Ascat. Looks broaderline deserving at this point of an upgrade. I'd like to see tropical storm warnings for the cape verdes.

The convection is still sloppy-looking, so I would wait to upgrade until maybe tonight.

[MGC]

Headed into cooler waters and dry air looks to be ingested into the circulation. System is too close to Africa for a rapid spin up. If the LL circulation can remain intact the next few days the disturbance should find better conditions. Likely a fish storm at this time, but we shall see.......MGC

[convergencezone2]

Guess I need to shift my focus on waves behind this one now and see which one might be potential long-trackers. I thought I had read prior to the season starting that there was a potential for long-trackers because of the Atlantic setup expected, but it's possible that I mis-read it.

[Nuno]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6246/ghO4ur.gif

LLC based on satellite and Ascat. Looks broaderline deserving at this point of an upgrade. I'd like to see tropical storm warnings for the cape verdes.

This is where you'd expect a PTC...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd say odds of a recurve out-to-sea and away from CONUS are about 75% right now. Bermuda will have to watch it. Should become a beautiful, first hurricane of the season.

[cycloneye]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a well-defined low pressure area located about
100 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Only a small increase in
the organization could lead to the formation of a tropical
depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo Verde
Islands tonight and on Monday. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday across
the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear very conducive for later
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[TomballEd]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6246/ghO4ur.gif

LLC based on satellite and Ascat. Looks broaderline deserving at this point of an upgrade. I'd like to see tropical storm warnings for the cape verdes.

This is where you'd expect a PTC...

We may see one in about 3 hours.

[weeniepatrol]

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear very conducive for later
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Emphasis mine. Unusually strong wording.

[StormWeather]

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear very conducive for later
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Emphasis mine. Unusually strong wording.

“Very conducive”

It’s not often you see that kind of wording.

[cycloneye]

18x Best Track: Is the 15.7N latitud is too high in terms of intensifying down the road?

AL, 97, 2025081018, , BEST, 0, 157N, 215W, 30, 1006, LO

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My track analog right now for track is a fairly obscure one -- 2009 Hurricane Bill. Same time of year too.