ouragans wrote:zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qzRokcW.png
It's closed
Convection is still pretty disorganized though. Probably another day before the NHC can pull the trigger.
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ouragans wrote:zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qzRokcW.png
It's closed
StormWeather wrote:
Don’t think I’d ever say this but; the GFS might have been right for once (for how quickly it spun up)
aspen wrote:ouragans wrote:zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qzRokcW.png
It's closed
Convection is still pretty disorganized though. Probably another day before the NHC can pull the trigger.
aspen wrote:ouragans wrote:zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qzRokcW.png
It's closed
Convection is still pretty disorganized though. Probably another day before the NHC can pull the trigger.
Category5Kaiju wrote:It's gonna be a very interesting week coming up to watch how future Erin unfolds.
I think at this point, it's pretty evident that the GFS may have actually been correct in calling for this system to rapidly spin up into a bona fide tropical storm near the Cape Verde Islands. While convection has some work to do, it's got a healthy structure already, and I think this thing will be declared as at least a TD fairly soon.
For the near future, what we know is that there seems to be a sprawling ridge in place, so this system is likely going to track westward or WNW for quite some time while over the open Atlantic as opposed to immediately being pulled poleward like Kirk or Lorenzo. There also seems to be decent consensus that this will miss islands like Puerto Rico and some of the more eastern islands that were ravaged by Irma 8 years ago at least just to the north.
Beyond that is a complete mystery. However, the one thing I will say is this doesn't seem to be as clear cut of a case as storms like Teddy, Sam, or Lee given the time of year and how there still seem to be certain ensembles and operational runs that, if showing a recurve, do so west of Bermuda as opposed to east. This could be OTS, for sure. But if the right steering currents fall into place at the right time, which we don't know for sure at this point, then this could also become a menace to the East Coast. We'll simply have to monitor in real time.
You know, I know it's not possible given such technology didn't exist back then, but it would be interesting to see how the current models we have would've interpreted a storm like the 1938 New England Hurricane, Hugo, or Edouard 1996. Which might give us more reliable examples to look at as a barometer of what could happen with 97L.
WeatherBoy2000 wrote:The real question is if TCG can be completed in the short term. It's currently over a pool of warmer ssts right off Africa, but it'll be traveling over more marginal ssts very soon:
https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_sst_tropatl.png
There is also drier and stabler air further north as well.
Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6246/ghO4ur.gif
LLC based on satellite and Ascat. Looks broaderline deserving at this point of an upgrade. I'd like to see tropical storm warnings for the cape verdes.
Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6246/ghO4ur.gif
LLC based on satellite and Ascat. Looks broaderline deserving at this point of an upgrade. I'd like to see tropical storm warnings for the cape verdes.
Nuno wrote:Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6246/ghO4ur.gif
LLC based on satellite and Ascat. Looks broaderline deserving at this point of an upgrade. I'd like to see tropical storm warnings for the cape verdes.
This is where you'd expect a PTC...
weeniepatrol wrote:Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear very conducive for later
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Emphasis mine. Unusually strong wording.
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