ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[zzzh]

[Canelaw99]

00z Best Track now moving WNW.

AL, 97, 2025081100, , BEST, 0, 165N, 234W, 30, 1006, LO

https://i.imgur.com/wEbobpd.png

Do these waves usually gain that much latitude so quickly? I feel like I usually see them chugging west, maybe WNW, a bit longer.

[CrazyC83]

https://i.imgur.com/lymGUl1.png

With that wind barb and the low resolution, I'd go 35 kt for the initial intensity. If this was 24 hours ago, I'd classify it as TS Erin now to get the warnings out. But with the storm leaving the islands, there may be a bit of time to wait. If this trend continues, I'd start advisories early tomorrow (EDT), which I believe is 8 am CVT if 0900Z.

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1954719713000554813

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track now moving WNW.

AL, 97, 2025081100, , BEST, 0, 165N, 234W, 30, 1006, LO

https://i.imgur.com/wEbobpd.png

Do these waves usually gain that much latitude so quickly? I feel like I usually see them chugging west, maybe WNW, a bit longer.

In this case, there was an upper trough near the Canary Islands that caused that not usual movement to the north.

[Blown Away]

I don’t believe many of the 18z models depicted this persistent convective ball. 97L appears to be on the S side of the ensemble spread.

[Landy]

Center is embedded well within the deep convection if the station data is to be believed.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just a quick reminder that this is happening in 25-26 C waters. This demonstrates that while important, raw sea surface temperatures are only one aspect of the picture when it comes down to maintaining a tropical cyclone. The June-July chatter about this season struggling with stability in August, Atlantic Nina, lukewarm tropical sea surface temperatures, etc. now feels like ancient history.

[Beef Stew]

I think this is one of those systems that would already be classified if it weren't 1000+ miles away from the Caribbean and CONUS. Regardless, I expect the NHC to probably bump the 48 hour odds up to 70 or 80% in the next advisory, following with an upgrade at some point to TS Erin later in the day tomorrow (Aug 11th).

[ElectricStorm]

Up to 70/90

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a well-defined low pressure area located near
the northwestern Cabo Verde Islands. The system will likely become
a tropical depression within the next day or so while it moves
generally westward. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected to continue today across portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by the
middle to latter portion of this week while moving westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[WaveBreaking]

The edges of this proto-CDO are fanning out in nearly every direction. I wonder if this convection can sustain itself by sunrise.

[sasha_B]

From the latest (08.11/06z) Dvorak fix from NOAA/OSPO:

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED UNDER A LARGE COLD
OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. THE MET AND PT ARE 1.5 BASED ON THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT TREND WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC POSITION.

Deep convection has persisted for more than 12 hours now, and - as has been noted by meteorologists and other users here - ASCAT data suggests that there's a closed circulation. Surface observations from earlier this evening also suggest that that circulation is located under the cold overcast. It seems there just isn't enough confidence in that position yet for a tropical cyclone to be designated.

[cycloneye]

Looks like a TC and surely will be officially later today.

[Nimbus]

Model runs are still calling for recurve so Gulf, Florida and Georgia interests are feeling more comfortable.
Big islands Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico need to watch the ridge evolution but unless this starts tracking WSW soon it should miss the 20N at 60W benchmark to the NW.

Looking like Erin might be a serious storm and NHC is sparing their budget resources, so that scenario doesn't disappoint me at all!

[Jr0d]

This may have a similar track to 2001 Erin except making it a bit further west before recurving. 2001 Erin was a little further south at this stage as well.

[GCANE]

Interesting.
An upper-level high is situated NW of the convection.
It is creating upper-level shear and could affect the forecast track.
Also, needs to run through a lot of SAL
Need to see how this evolves in the next couple days.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1954858040093548696

[mrjet]

Flooding associated with this 97L disturbance caused six deaths tonight in São Vicente, Cape Verde. Four of the victims were children.

Link 1

Link 2

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1954843773311029494

[tolakram]

Pretty good lightening going on right now also. Following the lightening it seems to be continuing wnw.

https://weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/25881439.gif?0.7663449496460294

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