2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1952886993651941790


 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1952889571169210503

This feels like jumping the gun, no? I know Webb has been persistently bearish on his seasonal outlook but there's been model/ensemble support for TCG in the tropical Atlantic for the first two weeks of this month for a while now. If there were nothing in the pipeline appearing on the guidance I would agree, but that's not the case.

Wait, I'm kind of scratching my head here; is he being bearish and bullish simultaneously?

But yeah I do agree, nothing solid yet, but there's literal model support all over the place for activity to pick up in the coming weeks. In fact, 2025 seems to be outperforming 2022 and 2024 by this measure alone, interestingly enough.

[cycloneye]

Breaking=Looking like a backloaded season.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1953112580047946007

[cycloneye]

Agree 1,000% with Eric Webb about is now or never for the 2025 season to put a solid performance or if not, then you know the rest. And yes, that number begins to flourish, 2013. And another yes, those season cancel posts would be prevalent.

@webberweather
Rarely do things line up as favorably for tropical development subseasonally as they will next week in the East Atlantic

Hard to get the MJO, a CCKW, & an Eq Rossby Wave this strong to all line up at once

This will be a good litmus test of how favorable the Atlantic is this yr

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1953599802362802228

[Spacecoast]

Pure fantasyland, but here is the 4 week (840Hr) GEFS run from last night 0z...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pure fantasyland, but here is the 4 week (840Hr) GEFS run from last night 0z...

https://i.ibb.co/TMYNLBvY/floop-gefsens-2025080700-sfcmslp-meanmem-atl.gif

Looks like a bunch of bugs

[chaser1]

Sure appears that our typically strong West Atlantic ridge, is well north and east of the norm. That could present a heightened threat to New England, Bermuda, and the Canadian Maritines (perhaps the Azores while we're at it).


May just be a primarily big recurve season.

[Hurrilurker]

Sure appears that our typically strong West Atlantic ridge, is well north and east of the norm. That could present a heightened threat to New England, Bermuda, and the Canadian Maritines (perhaps the Azores while we're at it).


May just be a primarily big recurve season.

Maybe...but near the end of the forecast, early September, it starts building back in on the west side, which could cap off the north exit and funnel some later storms into CONUS. And maybe having it so far east keeps some long-trackers from going fishing early.

It definitely looks weird to have the high that much offset though (but it's still huge, covering almost all of the North Atlantic).

[WeatherBoy2000]

Unsurprisingly, there will likely be more development opportunities after 97l as we enter the peak:

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1954889249167429736

[Category5Kaiju]

We're now looking at the very real possibility of a long-tracking major hurricane and what also looks to be a heightened period of possible tropical cyclogenesis to close out the month. Mind you too, it's currently August 11; bell-ringing isn't even supposed to happen for another 9 days.

It's somewhat ironic that the year that was allegedly supposed to have stability issues, struggles with Atlantic Nina, etc. also managed to defy the recent patterns of an unfavorable mid-August (mayyybeee with the exception of 2021). I didn't want to speak too soon, but it's looking ever so likely that some of those talks were *slightly* overblown and that the June/July we had this year was fairly normal in the grand scheme of things.

And, of course, I think at this point we can safely say that the specter of 2013 will never get to haunt the 2025 season

[tolakram]

We're now looking at the very real possibility of a long-tracking major hurricane and what also looks to be a heightened period of possible tropical cyclogenesis to close out the month. Mind you too, it's currently August 11; bell-ringing isn't even supposed to happen for another 9 days.

It's somewhat ironic that the year that was allegedly supposed to have stability issues, struggles with Atlantic Nina, etc. also managed to defy the recent patterns of an unfavorable mid-August (mayyybeee with the exception of 2021). I didn't want to speak too soon, but it's looking ever so likely that some of those talks were *slightly* overblown and that the June/July we had this year was fairly normal in the grand scheme of things.

And, of course, I think at this point we can safely say that the specter of 2013 will never get to haunt the 2025 season

Same as every year, fighting the most recent years battles, making bad comparisons, etc. Fun, sometimes, accurate, rarely.

The Atlantic has had below normal stability going on 15 years now. I worry when I see some continuing to ignore this broken metric.

[chaser1]

Interesting flare up suddenly appearing in the W. Caribbean. I only mention this because there appears to be evidence of rotation at some level right at about 12.5 N and 82.5 W. This likely to prove to be transitory in light of the entire area of disturbed weather moving off to the west/wnw. Along with Erin forming in the far E. Atlantic today, this might be indicative of our basin trying to wake up. One thing for sure, there's no problem with SST's west of 60W.

[Category5Kaiju]

So, here's what piques my curiosity in the meantime.

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1953896423683965298



Of course, this is simply one example of people's interpretations of some of the recent models that showed persistent ridging (and, therefore, a more dangerous pattern for landfalling storms). I also recall Webb doing an analysis of it some days ago, as well as much general talk on it in the wx community. With Erin's predicted track though, is it safe to say that these models busted? Did they simply not catch the trough that is expected to pull Erin OTS, or were there other variables at play?

[WeatherBoy2000]

So, here's what piques my curiosity in the meantime.

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1953896423683965298



Of course, this is simply one example of people's interpretations of some of the recent models that showed persistent ridging (and, therefore, a more dangerous pattern for landfalling storms). I also recall Webb doing an analysis of it some days ago, as well as much general talk on it in the wx community. With Erin's predicted track though, is it safe to say that these models busted? Did they simply not catch the trough that is expected to pull Erin OTS, or were there other variables at play?

"Limits the opportunity" doesn't mean no opportunity, I think we need to see more storms before we can declare anything. 2017 had a pattern that favored fewer recurves, but it still had them (Gert, Jose, and Lee).

[Kingarabian]

If the models are right, the last two weeks of August seem to be quite busy with Erin and another system. Atlantic would be behaving like its a cool neutral ENSO year.

[Category5Kaiju]

With Erin officially being a 155-mph hurricane, 2025 continues a whopping 11-year streak where the strongest storm of the year is at least a 155-mph Category 4 hurricane or a bona-fide Category 5 hurricane.

[LarryWx]

1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep.

2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20.

3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20.

4. 2020 (180) 8/26

5. 2019 (132) 8/30

6. 2018 (133) 9/10

7. 2017 (225) 8/25

8. 2016 (141) 8/30

———

 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%).

[MarioProtVI]

Atlantic beating WPac once again to the punch in getting a Cat 5

[Teban54]

Something something cool MDR, something something warm subtropics inducing stability:

(15-day mean chosen to reduce the effects of Erin's cold wake)



Something something inactive deep tropics:

[Category5Kaiju]

To say that I'm concerned about the future of this season is....an understatement.

With Erin already reaching Category 5 status by mid-August and with rumblings of yet another storm originating in the deep tropics in the coming days/weeks that potentially looks to be more of a land threat than Erin, there's no telling what September and October are going to look like. The fact that we're getting such formidable activity in what recently has been a relatively dead period in the Atlantic, combined with the expected -ENSO trend, makes me think that we still have a lot of season left and that Erin may not be the only Category 5 hurricane we see this season.

I know there's been a lot of mixed signals early on this hurricane season, but at this point I think the tropics have really shown how they would like to proceed forward in terms of activity. Buckle up, and be prepared.

[Pas_Bon]

To say that I'm concerned about the future of this season is....an understatement.

With Erin already reaching Category 5 status by mid-August and with rumblings of yet another storm originating in the deep tropics in the coming days/weeks that potentially looks to be more of a land threat than Erin, there's no telling what September and October are going to look like. The fact that we're getting such formidable activity in what recently has been a relatively dead period in the Atlantic, combined with the expected -ENSO trend, makes me think that we still have a lot of season left and that Erin may not be the only Category 5 hurricane we see this season.

I know there's been a lot of mixed signals early on this hurricane season, but at this point I think the tropics have really shown how they would like to proceed forward in terms of activity. Buckle up, and be prepared.

Agreed. It’s going to be a rough go the next several weeks. Eat your Wheaties, folks.