ATL: ERIN - Models

[BobHarlem]

last frame of the 12z Canadian Gem. Canadian is slower, and sw of the 0z

(0z was nw of Bermuda this far out)

[Category5Kaiju]

12z CMC

Getting uncomfortably close the the Carolinas

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

last frame of the 12z Canadian Gem. Canadian is slower, and sw of the 0z

https://i.imgur.com/x6eWPy7.png (0z was nw of Bermuda this far out)

This is great news for Bermuda

[syfr]

last frame of the 12z Canadian Gem. Canadian is slower, and sw of the 0z

https://i.imgur.com/x6eWPy7.png (0z was nw of Bermuda this far out)

This is great news for Bermuda

And potentially bad news for those of us in the Carolinas.

But... it's a ways away.....

[TampaWxLurker]

Still heading NW at 150 hours, due south of Bermuda. Could get decently west of Bermuda this run. But maybe close to the Carolinas.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

last frame of the 12z Canadian Gem. Canadian is slower, and sw of the 0z

https://i.imgur.com/x6eWPy7.png (0z was nw of Bermuda this far out)

This is great news for Bermuda

And potentially bad news for those of us in the Carolinas.

But... it's a ways away.....

Hopefully it shoots the gap and gives us both good surfing.

[hurricane2025]

last frame of the 12z Canadian Gem. Canadian is slower, and sw of the 0z

https://i.imgur.com/x6eWPy7.png (0z was nw of Bermuda this far out)

This is great news for Bermuda

CMC is wrong 99 percent of the time


And potentially bad news for those of us in the Carolinas.

But... it's a ways away.....

[BobHarlem]

12z / 6z GFS nearly identical out to 180 hours.

[TampaWxLurker]

Maybe spoke too soon. Headed due north just west of Bermuda, same as the last run.

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS nearest to Bermuda. Almost eerily similar to the 6z this far out. Honestly if this continues all the way to the end I'm going think the 12z run is a bit botched. (update: it starts to diverge later, no Canada landfall either.)

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro AI is strikingly similar to the 0z and 6z runs also. Gets close to the Bahamas then recurves between NC and Bermuda with no Canadian landfall either.

[ElectricStorm]

HAFS are running now, HWRF and HMON are not. Both are approaching hurricane strength in the next 48-54 hours

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: best of both worlds with it well away from US and also ~250 miles W of Bermuda

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro closest approach to Bermuda (west).

[BobHarlem]

Despite the consistency in the operationals, there's still a lot of spread in the GFS ensembles

[Stratton23]

their has been a noticeable shift SW today on the ensembles, the east coast is definitely not even close to being out of the woods with ERIN

[syfr]

pic

That is quite a low in the eye, and with beautiful symmetry in this model.

[ElectricStorm]

Both HAFS models fluctuate between 105-120kts for the remainder of the run.

[cycloneye]

18z SHIPS data.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED *
* ERIN AL052025 08/11/25 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 54 59 68 74 81 89 94 98 104 106 105 110 112 112
V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 54 59 68 74 81 89 94 98 104 106 105 110 112 112
V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 53 57 65 73 81 89 96 99 101 100 98 97 100 102
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 7 10 7 6 9 9 13 16 22 18 10 13 10 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 2 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 3 7
SHEAR DIR 60 74 97 83 70 95 57 360 346 313 299 284 292 297 329 331 296
SST (C) 26.4 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.0 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 120 120 122 127 126 135 141 144 150 154 156 154 154 160 162
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.4
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9
700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 59 57 56 52 50 50 50 55 56 58 61 64 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 16 18 17 19 21 23 24 28 30 29 34 35 37
850 MB ENV VOR 106 118 122 125 122 104 86 67 42 39 19 21 5 -1 0 -6 37
200 MB DIV 87 74 52 37 28 -18 -24 -13 23 16 24 19 29 4 10 16 49
700-850 TADV -6 -4 1 4 1 4 2 0 0 -3 3 -1 5 0 6 10 22
LAND (KM) 1290 1496 1702 1899 2097 1871 1682 1444 1174 980 721 511 441 449 516 722 970
LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.2 20.1 21.0 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 29.3 31.2 33.2 35.1 37.0 40.3 43.2 46.8 49.9 52.6 55.4 58.4 61.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 18 17 15 16 16 15 14 14 15 12 7 8 13 14
HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 2 3 5 11 18 25 29 33 36 39 42 40 36 27

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=620)

[BobHarlem]

12z GEFS Ensemble tracks (animated). Slight left overall shift since the 6z.