ATL: ERIN - Models

[BobHarlem]

12z euro ensemble animated tracks. Slight right shift from 0z (still a few US hits)

[DunedinDave]

Still very far out. If I had $100 to wager, I’d put $70 on that it curves out to sea, $20, that it comes close enough to the US to clip Hatteras or the Cape Cod region, and $10 that it stays south and somehow rams into Florida and/or hits the Gulf.

look at Irmas early runs and get back to me.

I looked and there were a few that had it taking the southern route. The vibe here so far is that most are in agreeement it won’t do that.

Not saying by any means that won’t change…just saying if I had $100, that’s where my money would go as of now. And hopefully I’m right because I don’t want a US hit.

[LarryWx]

12z GEFS Ensemble tracks (animated). Slight left overall shift since the 6z.
https://i.postimg.cc/nrSsjNRG/87542089.gif

I counted 6 of 30 (20%) 12Z GEFS members hitting the Conus. I’m not worried about it and am pretty optimistic the U.S. will not be hit, especially considering the current 17.4N latitude so far E in the MDR. But though still small, 20% is the highest since at least 6Z of yesterday fwiw. Likely will go back down later runs of today.

[floridasun]

12z GEFS Ensemble tracks (animated). Slight left overall shift since the 6z.
https://i.postimg.cc/nrSsjNRG/87542089.gif

I counted 6 of 30 (20%) 12Z GEFS members hitting the Conus. I’m not worried about it and am pretty optimistic the U.S. will not be hit, especially considering the current 17.4N latitude so far E in the MDR. But though still small, 20% is the highest since at least 6Z of yesterday fwiw. Likely will go back down later runs of today.

Larry nhc saying high maybe strong expect not have weakness so not saying we east coast are not safe we still watch close by weekend so whole east coast and Bermuda need eye on it i know you good but disagree with this

[BobHarlem]

18z icon matches 12z position (slightly stronger) at 120 hours (which is as far out as the 18z icon goes).

[floridasun]

18z icon matches 12z position (slightly stronger) at 120 hours (which is as far out as the 18z icon goes).
[list=][/list]

https://i.imgur.com/Wk1XfoX.png

what i see last part loop of run look like want get close to Bahama

[Mouton]

Early on with the projections of Cat 3, my sense is it goes poleward lots of model support for near Bermuda. If it does not develop, and there are indications it may not due to conditions, it could end up somewhere in Florida say north of Palm Beach as a low range Cat 1.

Long range forecast now is for the ridge to the west to go west forming an L over south Florida. Hense my suggestion of north of Palm Beach.

[hohnywx]

12z GEFS Ensemble tracks (animated). Slight left overall shift since the 6z.
https://i.postimg.cc/nrSsjNRG/87542089.gif

I counted 6 of 30 (20%) 12Z GEFS members hitting the Conus. I’m not worried about it and am pretty optimistic the U.S. will not be hit, especially considering the current 17.4N latitude so far E in the MDR. But though still small, 20% is the highest since at least 6Z of yesterday fwiw. Likely will go back down later runs of today.

Larry, going back a while at this point, but I believe you had data showing how a WSW movement in the MDR greatly increased the chance of U.S. impacts? I tried searching but came up empty.

[hohnywx]

18z icon matches 12z position (slightly stronger) at 120 hours (which is as far out as the 18z icon goes).


https://i.imgur.com/Wk1XfoX.png

Slightly west of 12z

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1955019995278164218

[CrazyC83]

Even if it recurves, there's still land sitting there (Bermuda).

[LarryWx]

Even if it recurves, there's still land sitting there (Bermuda).

The 12Z JMA hits Bermuda directly.

[hurricane2025]

Tbh longs way out don’t be surprise of a close USA landfall on these 18z runs always happens

[cycloneye]

18z GFS a little bit closer to the northern Leewards, BVI, USVI and Puerto Rico.

[chris_fit]

On my phone so cant post graphic but GFS notable massive shift W for the 18z run. Almost in the Bahamas.

[Cat5James]

This 18Z GFS run will have people talking. Huge shift SW by day 7

[Category5Kaiju]

Ooh, this 18z GFS run is looking....interesting, to say the least.

At least by hour 174, this is the furthest south and west that Erin has been projected to be since the 0z/6z runs on August 9.

[BobHarlem]

Furthest Southwest the GFS has been since the Saturday 0z. No landfall however.

[LarryWx]

12z GEFS Ensemble tracks (animated). Slight left overall shift since the 6z.
https://i.postimg.cc/nrSsjNRG/87542089.gif

I counted 6 of 30 (20%) 12Z GEFS members hitting the Conus. I’m not worried about it and am pretty optimistic the U.S. will not be hit, especially considering the current 17.4N latitude so far E in the MDR. But though still small, 20% is the highest since at least 6Z of yesterday fwiw. Likely will go back down later runs of today.

Larry, going back a while at this point, but I believe you had data showing how a WSW movement in the MDR greatly increased the chance of U.S. impacts? I tried searching but came up empty.

Yes, I remember doing that study. The reason for this appears to be that when there’s a strong enough E Atlantic/Azores high to cause WSW motion in the E MDR, it often teleconnects with less protection for the Conus from steering than usual for a TCG in the E Atlantic.

I’d like to find the actual details. Examples of E Atlantic WSW motion that hit the Conus include:
-#6 of 1893
-#4 of 1928
-#4 of 1947
-#2 of 1952
-#6 of 1964
-Hugo of 1989
-Isabel of 2003
-Ivan of 2004

Note though that these were all S of 16N and almost all S of 15N when they made their WSW motion.

(Irma of 2017’s WSW motion was W of 40W)

[AxaltaRacing24]

it’ll recurve this run, but compare this to the 18Z yesterday and look at the trend.

[StormWeather]

it’ll recurve this run, but compare this to the 18Z yesterday and look at the trend.

Compared to the 00Z, 06Z and 12Z runs of the GFS today by 120+ hours, that is a huge trend southwards.