ATL: ERIN - Models

[LarryWx]

18z Euro is a bit more SW at hour 72 compared to the 12z run.

Thanks, King.
At 144, the 18Z Euro is slightly SE of the 12Z at 150.

[cycloneye]

00z SHIPS run.

[BobHarlem]

TVCN consensus trend since the start, 0z shifts left again.

[cycloneye]

00z Spaghetti models are clear from the islands and also from CONUS and Bermuda.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/reid_lt/status/1955726619944870213

[Teban54]

GFS trend over the past 6 runs. The 18z run is notably slower and more west, despite still further away from US than other global models.

[Iceresistance]

18z EPS has a 897 mb member, the first sub-900 member for Erin


https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bN4rL.png

[Teban54]

18z EPS has a 897 mb member, the first sub-900 member for Erin

https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bN4rL.png
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bN4rL.png

Meanwhile, there are three 1000+ mb members to the east. That's a model spread of more than 100 mb!

[BobHarlem]

0z icon is left of the 18z at the same time frame, close enough for the Bahamas to feel it here. At 150 hours out its getting close to cat 5 again.



Ridge situation is very different than the GFS

[caneseddy]

Still looking to recrurve but that ICON run is getting a bit too close to the coast for my liking...also bombing it out to Cat 5 just north of the Bahamas (918 mb)

[Kingarabian]

Another S/SW shift on the 00z ICON.

[Fancy1002]

Is it just me, or is a brush or direct impact on the edge of North Carolina looking a bit more likely with each run, at least on the icon and euro, wish we could se further out on the haps’s

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon, Left of 18z and 12z. Cat 4/5 waaay too close to the OBX.


Looking at the ridging on that model if it shifts left again like that again, it's landfall.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is it just me, or is a brush or direct impact on the edge of North Carolina looking a bit more likely with each run, at least on the icon and euro, wish we could se further out on the haps’s

If anything, the east of Bermuda scenario is becoming less likely.

[Sailingtime]

One other thing.
If anyone has a Caribbean cruise slated for this weekend, I suggest that you cancel.

Ships will go around the storm/change up their itinerary but in general, no cruising August - October time frame if you want to play it safe.
The models have been consistent with the turn and keeping Erin well off the U.S. coast but you never really know until the storm actually does what it's "predicted" to do.

[Keldeo1997]

Uhhh don't look at the ICON ensembles

 https://x.com/FLStormChasers_/status/1955842062617862291

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET is similar to 12Z with recurve at 71.7W

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 45.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2025 0 16.4N 45.8W 1007 31
1200UTC 14.08.2025 12 16.7N 48.8W 1006 31
0000UTC 15.08.2025 24 17.8N 51.8W 1006 32
1200UTC 15.08.2025 36 19.0N 55.5W 1006 32
0000UTC 16.08.2025 48 20.0N 58.9W 1005 33
1200UTC 16.08.2025 60 20.5N 62.6W 1002 33
0000UTC 17.08.2025 72 20.4N 65.4W 999 32
1200UTC 17.08.2025 84 20.6N 67.2W 997 34
0000UTC 18.08.2025 96 22.3N 68.2W 994 40
1200UTC 18.08.2025 108 24.2N 69.6W 992 44
0000UTC 19.08.2025 120 26.1N 70.6W 989 46
1200UTC 19.08.2025 132 27.9N 71.3W 986 50
0000UTC 20.08.2025 144 30.0N 71.7W 982 52
1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 32.5N 71.5W 979 58

0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 35.0N 70.3W 972 62

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC shifting west as well. Similar to the 8/12 00z run through hour 84.

[IsabelaWeather]

0Z UKMET is similar to 12Z with recurve at 71.7W

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 45.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2025 0 16.4N 45.8W 1007 31
1200UTC 14.08.2025 12 16.7N 48.8W 1006 31
0000UTC 15.08.2025 24 17.8N 51.8W 1006 32
1200UTC 15.08.2025 36 19.0N 55.5W 1006 32
0000UTC 16.08.2025 48 20.0N 58.9W 1005 33
1200UTC 16.08.2025 60 20.5N 62.6W 1002 33
0000UTC 17.08.2025 72 20.4N 65.4W 999 32
1200UTC 17.08.2025 84 20.6N 67.2W 997 34
0000UTC 18.08.2025 96 22.3N 68.2W 994 40
1200UTC 18.08.2025 108 24.2N 69.6W 992 44
0000UTC 19.08.2025 120 26.1N 70.6W 989 46
1200UTC 19.08.2025 132 27.9N 71.3W 986 50
0000UTC 20.08.2025 144 30.0N 71.7W 982 52
1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 32.5N 71.5W 979 58
0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 35.0N 70.3W 972 62

Looks closer than I remember other runs. Places it just 130 miles from me. Looks like another southward jog. I think the last one was near 22N at 67W

[convergencezone2]

interesting trends with some of the models today / tonight. It will also interesteing to see how much this affects wave action along the east coast if it gets a bit closer.