ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[SpaceCowboy]

Am I the only person that feels like none of the models (not the actual data being collected but the forecast models and trajectories) are completely out of wack?

I am no meteorologist like half of you, and have even less formal education or study than all of you lol… but from 31 years experience of hurricanes, this one is really shaping out weird. And for some reason I can’t fight the gut feeling that provided the data collected today, either something isn’t being said (or projected), and this thing might smack right into somewhere on the east coast somewhere north of Broward or up in NC near MB.

Quoting this because that same “gut” feeling, is getting “guttier”…

Looks like that one EU model + the ICON have been the most accurate indicating models so far; I remember seeing on Tidbits or one of the random Facebook pages several EU models that put this thing through the Caribbean & possibly hitting the south east US.

I don’t know, man. If I there isn’t a jog or some wobble to the WNW soon, I’m starting to think I better go do some prepping.

Keeping everyone on the islands; SXM + SBH, PR, Bahamas - in my prayers.

[tropicwatch]

So far it looks like Erin doesn't want to go right. Very disturbing trend at this point. As usual hurricanes like throwing wrenches where they don't need to be

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1956696717937590459

[MarioProtVI]

I knew Erin was gonna blow when I went to bed at 3 this morning but I wasn’t expecting it THIS intense…we likely have our first August Cat 5 since KATRINA. Absolutely insane. Feels like watching Milton explode all over again.

[msbee]

Hi, just a quick update from St Maarten.
The north eastern Caribbean islands really lucked out on this one. I couldn’t believe when I woke up this morning that she was a cat four.
It was a total nonevent for us. We got some rain but not much. We heard some thunder but not much and we got no wind basically.
We needed the rain so that was a blessing. And it looks like we’ll get some light rain off and on today, which we can certainly use.
I am hoping Erin stays far away from all land.

[eastcoastFL]

Erin also appears to be south of track as well.

At 5am she was at 19.8N 61.1W she's now slightly south of that and about 1 degrees west. I wonder how that will factor into models later today.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Erin looks pretty big on satellite. The fact it's forecast to double or triple in size is insane.

The predicted satellite presentation in the subtropics is near comical:

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1956702490289635409

[WeatherBoy2000]

I knew Erin was gonna blow when I went to bed at 3 this morning but I wasn’t expecting it THIS intense…we likely have our first August Cat 5 since KATRINA. Absolutely insane. Feels like watching Milton explode all over again.

The last August cat 5 was actually Dean in 2007. This is also the first mid-August major since the 2000s as well.

[BobHarlem]

200-700mb steering right now from https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Just a heads up, this changes fairly rapidly, so its more for the very near term. But the intensity changes is going to make these kinda worthless.

[NDG]

Hopefully the NHC on their next update will finally recognize the almost due west heading during past 12+ hours and will start putting less confidence on the right biased models like the GFS.

[KeysRedWine]

200-700mb steering right now from https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Just a heads up, this changes fairly rapidly, so its more for the very near term.

https://i.imgur.com/922w4aA.gif

[Fancy1002]

I went to bed with a cat two, and woke up to a near cat five, nice job Erin.

[KeysRedWine]

200-700mb steering right now from https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Just a heads up, this changes fairly rapidly, so its more for the very near term.

https://i.imgur.com/922w4aA.gif

That's quite scary....might continue westward a while longer

[TampaWxLurker]

Very interested to see what NHC does with the track and watches/warnings at 11am. Everything probably shifts a bit west and the USVI/PR get a watch/warning.

[GCANE]

Right now the anti-cyclone associated with Erin and an ULL to the west in the southern Bahamas is creating a strong shear gradient west of Erin.
Max shear is currently over DR.

[FrontRunner]

And here I am, violently refreshing the NHC's page waiting for an Update Statement

I don't think we will get one until the 11am update. Mainly since it's not currently a direct threat to land.

It's more timing than anything. They did an update this morning when she went to Cat 4, but that's because it was so soon after the prior advisory. They probably figure they're close enough to 15z to just wait for that advisory.

[Teban54]

[Woofde]

Frankly almost unbelievable to be looking at a likely Cat 5 hurricane this soon. I knew it poised to blowup yesterday but not this much... Yet another case of ERI, is this the new normal going forward?

[HurricaneRyan]

My Isabel comparison yesterday suddenly not so extreme anymore

[eastcoastFL]

Very interested to see what NHC does with the track and watches/warnings at 11am. Everything probably shifts a bit west and the USVI/PR get a watch/warning.

I would think so too. It's getting hard to ignore the western component. It's been due west so long now the entire visible loop is just one long loop heading due west.