ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[sponger]

Assuming no gets a direct hit, this storm is a gift! Heat has to move North and this storm is doing an excellent job of doing just that. This may save someone in Late August or early September. Of course, the Gulf of America is still plenty warm!

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like we're past from her peak. So sad we missed it.

[Fancy1002]

As the eye seems to collapse, the Dvorak ring solidifies.

[Fancy1002]

Looks like we're past from her peak. So sad we missed it.

Never know, her second peak may be greater than the first.

[zzzh]

Where is the double wind maxima

[GCANE]

Looks like they will tag this just south of 20N

[Fancy1002]

Looks like she’s definitely weakened from the eye wall collapse, but I don’t expect that weakness to last very long once the new eye takes control.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1956847126895530365


Very reasonable statement... I'd put the peak at around 145 kt/913 mb

[floridasun]

it is bit south of nhc tracking line?

[aspen]

Looks like we're past from her peak. So sad we missed it.

Erin seemed to be leveling off in the mid to low 910s during the final passes this morning, so I don’t think its true peak was much stronger. Probably 145 kt and 910-913 mbar based on that final pass.

[abajan]

Assuming no gets a direct hit, this storm is a gift! Heat has to move North and this storm is doing an excellent job of doing just that. This may save someone in Late August or early September. Of course, the Gulf of America is still plenty warm!

Well, it's certainly a gift to surfers (one of which you appear to be).

[Kohlecane]

That shrink was impressive wonder what the NM was at the last slice of this image before it started occluding

[CrazyC83]

Looks like we're past from her peak. So sad we missed it.

Erin seemed to be leveling off in the mid to low 910s during the final passes this morning, so I don’t think its true peak was much stronger. Probably 145 kt and 910-913 mbar based on that final pass.

Looking back, I think the last pass WAS the peak, which I would move to 1630Z in the BT, at 145 kt / 913 mb (based on the 919/59 dropsonde). I'd have the 18Z intensity at 140 kt / 918 mb, extrapolating the current weakening.

[Kingarabian]

Continues to stairstep WNW

[Travorum]

Looks like the inner eyewall is still 6nm in diameter, the outer eyewall is down to 24nm diameter but no obvious double wind maxima (at least in the NE and SW).

[Hurricane2022]

In fact the EWRC may have been postponed again, due to undercutting Wind Shear.
 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1956858660065587446

[TampaWxLurker]

Assuming no gets a direct hit, this storm is a gift! Heat has to move North and this storm is doing an excellent job of doing just that. This may save someone in Late August or early September. Of course, the Gulf of America is still plenty warm!

On the other hand, if some of the long-term models are to be believed, it may cause hell with the strong ridge building back behind it and blocking the out to sea path for anything that follows for a bit.

But the heat transfer all in one go for basically the entire western Atlantic north of the Caribbean, west of Bermuda. east of the CONUS and south of Atlantic Canada is ultimately a positive.

[Travorum]

In fact the EWRC may have been postponed again, due to undercutting Wind Shear.
https://x.com/WxTca/status/195685866006 ... Eo0dg&s=19

That's a notable degradation in the outer eyewall on the TDR reflectivity, the 14z pass from the last recon flight had a basically complete outer ring. Looks like that shear hit at a really opportune time in the ERC process.

[floridasun]

we have gulfstream want up earlyer will see that input into models later and see how doing plus ballon in area trough tell us if weaking still strong come off coast

[Nuno]

Seems weird PR isnt under a TS Watch at least given the band passing through absolutely has TS conditions. I dont quite understand the watches/warnings logic of recent seasons if someone more knowledgeable is willing to explain?