ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

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sponger
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#801 Postby sponger » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:25 pm

Assuming no gets a direct hit, this storm is a gift! Heat has to move North and this storm is doing an excellent job of doing just that. This may save someone in Late August or early September. Of course, the Gulf of America is still plenty warm!
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#802 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:26 pm

Looks like we're past from her peak. So sad we missed it.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#803 Postby Fancy1002 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:28 pm

As the eye seems to collapse, the Dvorak ring solidifies.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#804 Postby Fancy1002 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:28 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:Looks like we're past from her peak. So sad we missed it.

Never know, her second peak may be greater than the first.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#805 Postby zzzh » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:29 pm

Where is the double wind maxima
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#806 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:38 pm

Looks like they will tag this just south of 20N
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#807 Postby Fancy1002 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:42 pm

Looks like she’s definitely weakened from the eye wall collapse, but I don’t expect that weakness to last very long once the new eye takes control.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#808 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:45 pm

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1956847126895530365


Very reasonable statement... I'd put the peak at around 145 kt/913 mb
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#809 Postby floridasun » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:46 pm

it is bit south of nhc tracking line?
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#810 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:46 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:Looks like we're past from her peak. So sad we missed it.

Erin seemed to be leveling off in the mid to low 910s during the final passes this morning, so I don’t think its true peak was much stronger. Probably 145 kt and 910-913 mbar based on that final pass.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#811 Postby abajan » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:51 pm

sponger wrote:Assuming no gets a direct hit, this storm is a gift! Heat has to move North and this storm is doing an excellent job of doing just that. This may save someone in Late August or early September. Of course, the Gulf of America is still plenty warm!

Well, it's certainly a gift to surfers (one of which you appear to be).
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#812 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:53 pm

Image
That shrink was impressive wonder what the NM was at the last slice of this image before it started occluding
Last edited by Kohlecane on Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#813 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:56 pm

aspen wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:Looks like we're past from her peak. So sad we missed it.

Erin seemed to be leveling off in the mid to low 910s during the final passes this morning, so I don’t think its true peak was much stronger. Probably 145 kt and 910-913 mbar based on that final pass.


Looking back, I think the last pass WAS the peak, which I would move to 1630Z in the BT, at 145 kt / 913 mb (based on the 919/59 dropsonde). I'd have the 18Z intensity at 140 kt / 918 mb, extrapolating the current weakening.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#814 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 16, 2025 6:08 pm

Continues to stairstep WNW
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#815 Postby Travorum » Sat Aug 16, 2025 6:08 pm

Looks like the inner eyewall is still 6nm in diameter, the outer eyewall is down to 24nm diameter but no obvious double wind maxima (at least in the NE and SW).
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#816 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 6:30 pm

In fact the EWRC may have been postponed again, due to undercutting Wind Shear.
 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1956858660065587446

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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#817 Postby TampaWxLurker » Sat Aug 16, 2025 6:33 pm

sponger wrote:Assuming no gets a direct hit, this storm is a gift! Heat has to move North and this storm is doing an excellent job of doing just that. This may save someone in Late August or early September. Of course, the Gulf of America is still plenty warm!


On the other hand, if some of the long-term models are to be believed, it may cause hell with the strong ridge building back behind it and blocking the out to sea path for anything that follows for a bit.

But the heat transfer all in one go for basically the entire western Atlantic north of the Caribbean, west of Bermuda. east of the CONUS and south of Atlantic Canada is ultimately a positive.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#818 Postby Travorum » Sat Aug 16, 2025 6:37 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:In fact the EWRC may have been postponed again, due to undercutting Wind Shear.
https://x.com/WxTca/status/195685866006 ... Eo0dg&s=19


That's a notable degradation in the outer eyewall on the TDR reflectivity, the 14z pass from the last recon flight had a basically complete outer ring. Looks like that shear hit at a really opportune time in the ERC process.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#819 Postby floridasun » Sat Aug 16, 2025 6:40 pm

we have gulfstream want up earlyer will see that input into models later and see how doing plus ballon in area trough tell us if weaking still strong come off coast
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#820 Postby Nuno » Sat Aug 16, 2025 7:16 pm

Seems weird PR isnt under a TS Watch at least given the band passing through absolutely has TS conditions. I dont quite understand the watches/warnings logic of recent seasons if someone more knowledgeable is willing to explain?
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