2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
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TomballEd
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Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
I don't think there will be anything after the current AOI which will almost certainly recurve E of CONUS. Euro weeklies see Erin, then see the AOI at lower probs as a fish storm, then a fairly quiet week, 70% normal ACE (which is 70% of early September which isn't chicken feed). The week August 8th ACE returns to almost normal levels of ACE (for peak season) so the pause doesn't last long.
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WeatherBoy2000
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Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
TomballEd wrote:I don't think there will be anything after the current AOI which will almost certainly recurve E of CONUS. Euro weeklies see Erin, then see the AOI at lower probs as a fish storm, then a fairly quiet week, 70% normal ACE (which is 70% of early September which isn't chicken feed). The week August 8th ACE returns to almost normal levels of ACE (for peak season) so the pause doesn't last long.
https://i.imgur.com/f1dvrpc.png
Too soon to say this, the gfs/icon still has the further west/landfall possibility.
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Cachondo23
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Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
TomballEd wrote:I don't think there will be anything after the current AOI which will almost certainly recurve E of CONUS. Euro weeklies see Erin, then see the AOI at lower probs as a fish storm, then a fairly quiet week, 70% normal ACE (which is 70% of early September which isn't chicken feed). The week August 8th ACE returns to almost normal levels of ACE (for peak season) so the pause doesn't last long.
https://i.imgur.com/f1dvrpc.png
Way too early to determine the new AOI route.
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