2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[TomballEd]

I don't think there will be anything after the current AOI which will almost certainly recurve E of CONUS. Euro weeklies see Erin, then see the AOI at lower probs as a fish storm, then a fairly quiet week, 70% normal ACE (which is 70% of early September which isn't chicken feed). The week August 8th ACE returns to almost normal levels of ACE (for peak season) so the pause doesn't last long.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I don't think there will be anything after the current AOI which will almost certainly recurve E of CONUS. Euro weeklies see Erin, then see the AOI at lower probs as a fish storm, then a fairly quiet week, 70% normal ACE (which is 70% of early September which isn't chicken feed). The week August 8th ACE returns to almost normal levels of ACE (for peak season) so the pause doesn't last long.




https://i.imgur.com/f1dvrpc.png

Too soon to say this, the gfs/icon still has the further west/landfall possibility.

[Cachondo23]

I don't think there will be anything after the current AOI which will almost certainly recurve E of CONUS. Euro weeklies see Erin, then see the AOI at lower probs as a fish storm, then a fairly quiet week, 70% normal ACE (which is 70% of early September which isn't chicken feed). The week August 8th ACE returns to almost normal levels of ACE (for peak season) so the pause doesn't last long.




https://i.imgur.com/f1dvrpc.png

Way too early to determine the new AOI route.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1958160845692670034

[LarryWx]

Based on the ensembles and European Weeklies, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s quiet for a couple of weeks starting August 24th. If so, this could somewhat resemble 2024’s very quiet 19 day period (late August through early Sept.). If so, I’d then be expecting an active 2nd half of Sept. and probably into early Oct. (also similar to 2024 ).

Other opinions?

[LarryWx]

The brand new Euro Weeklies continue with yesterday’s run’s idea of a more active 3rd week of Sept than the first half, somewhat resembling 2024 especially considering the possible relative quiet for next week based on quiet ensembles:

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 4
9/8-14: 10-11
9/15-21: 13-15

Edit: Keep in mind that the EW did well last year with the lull.

[TomballEd]

The brand new Euro Weeklies continue with yesterday’s run’s idea of a more active 3rd week of Sept than the first half, somewhat resembling 2024 especially considering the possible relative quiet for next week based on quiet ensembles:

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 4
9/8-14: 10-11
9/15-21: 13-15

Edit: Keep in mind that the EW did well last year with the lull.

Looking at the probability of being within a certain range of a tropical storm, the week of September 1 is almost dead, and it looks like the CV season gets going the third week of September. There have been October hurricanes in Texas, 1949 and 1989, but hurricane season very unofficially ends for MBY at the equinox.

[IcyTundra]

The brand new Euro Weeklies continue with yesterday’s run’s idea of a more active 3rd week of Sept than the first half, somewhat resembling 2024 especially considering the possible relative quiet for next week based on quiet ensembles:

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 4
9/8-14: 10-11
9/15-21: 13-15

Edit: Keep in mind that the EW did well last year with the lull.

Looking at the probability of being within a certain range of a tropical storm, the week of September 1 is almost dead, and it looks like the CV season gets going the third week of September. There have been October hurricanes in Texas, 1949 and 1989, but hurricane season very unofficially ends for MBY at the equinox.
https://i.imgur.com/LO2Em1M.png

The risk of an October hurricane for the Upper Texas coast is incredibly low. The risk is pretty darn low for the last week of September too with Rita probably being the latest forming storm in recent memory to threathen us in that last week of September. The guys at Spacecityweather always have a post during the 4th week in September basically saying the hurricane season is over for us. I am feeling pretty good for the rest of the season based on what the Euro weeklies are forecasting for the next 2 weeks. By the time we get to the 2nd week of September we will effectively only have 2 weeks maybe 3 if you are being generous left for our hurricane season.

[wwizard]

The brand new Euro Weeklies continue with yesterday’s run’s idea of a more active 3rd week of Sept than the first half, somewhat resembling 2024 especially considering the possible relative quiet for next week based on quiet ensembles:

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 4
9/8-14: 10-11
9/15-21: 13-15

Edit: Keep in mind that the EW did well last year with the lull.

Looking at the probability of being within a certain range of a tropical storm, the week of September 1 is almost dead, and it looks like the CV season gets going the third week of September. There have been October hurricanes in Texas, 1949 and 1989, but hurricane season very unofficially ends for MBY at the equinox.
https://i.imgur.com/LO2Em1M.png

The risk of an October hurricane for the Upper Texas coast is incredibly low. The risk is pretty darn low for the last week of September too with Rita probably being the latest forming storm in recent memory to threathen us in that last week of September. The guys at Spacecityweather always have a post during the 4th week in September basically saying the hurricane season is over for us. I am feeling pretty good for the rest of the season based on what the Euro weeklies are forecasting for the next 2 weeks. By the time we get to the 2nd week of September we will effectively only have 2 weeks maybe 3 if you are being generous left for our hurricane season.

Though true about Texas and October, it has happened. Just 2 known upper Texas coast landfalls in October with both happening on the 16th (Jerry, 1989, striking Galveston Island & a 1912 hurricane striking Freeport), but there have been a few brush byes with the last of those being Delta in 2020.

Unofficially there’s possibly 2 hurricanes that have struck Texas in November, with one of those being in 1527 anywhere from Matagorda to Galveston.

So overall, yes, very low risks for Texas beyond September 30. But very low risks does not mean no risks and Texans can feel effects from something passing by from time to time as well.