2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3550
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#21 Postby Teban54 » Sun Jul 06, 2025 4:15 pm

ljmac75 wrote:Stating the obvious here but with Barry it's gonna depend on how much people associate the flooding with Barry and how many people are actually killed. It has some parallels with Dora and the Hawaii wildfire, although I think Barry is more involved in the flooding that Dora was with the fire. Unlike with Dora this won't be the worst natural disaster in the state and people might generally move on from it after a few months even with the loss of life.

If anything, I'd say that Barry is more similar to Lee 2011, which caused flooding in NE US as a remnant and became a billion-dollar storm (which was still relatively rare back then). Lee wasn't retired, likely because the coverage and discussions about its flooding were not really associated with the storm's name.

Dora was really an odd-ball, IMO. Speculation about Dora having an impact on the Hawaiian wildfires was unusually widely covered, far more than an average case of "storm impacts areas far from landfall". This is in part due to how severe and anomalous the impacts are in Hawaii.

Closest modern analogies to Dora are probably Helene (flooding in western NC/SC) and Ida (flooding in NY), although both were already worthy of retirements in the states they landfalled in.
0 likes   

aaaaaa
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:08 pm

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#22 Postby aaaaaa » Mon Jul 07, 2025 9:37 pm

if hurricane dora was retired for wildfire in hawaii, i think tropical storm barry should be retired if really tropical storm barry remnant moisture caused Guadalupe tragedy
3 likes   

User avatar
wwizard
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 75
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:28 pm
Location: TEXAS

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#23 Postby wwizard » Tue Jul 08, 2025 5:38 am

Nobody, other than us weather nerds, are associating Barry with the Texas floods. The name Barry is never mentioned in the discussion. 5 years from now no one is saying remember when Barry flooded the Texas Hill Country?
3 likes   
Alicia, Allison, Ike, Harvey, Beryl

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4230
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#24 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 08, 2025 7:14 pm

Wow, just wow. I've been reading some of the recent news about the Texas floods, and it unfortunately keeps getting worse by the day with more and more deaths being confirmed. This is looking likely to be the US's deadliest hydrological disaster in years.

Unfortunately, I don't think many in the general public are going to associate "Barry" with these floods, and I don't know how well the media is portraying this to have been tropical-related as well. Because of that, I don't think the name is going to be retired (or at least I'd be pleasantly surprised if it is). However, from a meteorological standpoint, Barry is a very strong candidate for retirement (as well as Debby from last year).

I know there are some comparisons being brought up with Dora in 2023, but I do think that this may not be a good comparison as there may have been some additional underlying factors to the decision to nix that name besides the wildfires, including to avoid confusion with retired Atlantic Dora that happened in 1964, as well as the EPAC's general lower bars for retirement than the Atlantic (for instance, if John happened on the Atlantic side with its 30 deaths and 2 billion dollars in damage, then I highly doubt it would've been retired; Karl 2010 caused 22 deaths and 4 billion dollars in damage but wasn't retired).
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

User avatar
Ulf
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2024 9:32 pm

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#25 Postby Ulf » Wed Jul 30, 2025 5:34 am

Tropical Storm Wipha (Crising) is the first candidate for possible retirement for the WPAC basin this year with 34 killed and 7 missing along with $177 million damage in the Philippines.

The chance this actually gets axed however is between low and toss up since it was not a direct Philippines landfall similar to Gaemi (Carina) last year. FWIW, Saola (Goring) in 2023 got retired for doing much less damage and only 3 deaths in the country so who knows.
1 likes   

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4230
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#26 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 16, 2025 11:27 am

So, here's a question I have for ya'll; would the heavy flooding and displacement in the Cape Verde islands already warrant possible retirement of "Erin," even if the storm decides to harmlessly curve on out to sea in the coming days?
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

User avatar
Ulf
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2024 9:32 pm

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#27 Postby Ulf » Sat Aug 16, 2025 1:47 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:So, here's a question I have for ya'll; would the heavy flooding and displacement in the Cape Verde islands already warrant possible retirement of "Erin," even if the storm decides to harmlessly curve on out to sea in the coming days?


I believe there has never been a storm getting retired for impact in Cape Verde alone. Also, very few storms actually caused deaths in Cape Verde.

Tropical Storm Fran (1984) caused between 29 to 32 fatalities there and that is the highest by far.

Hurricane Fred in 2015 was the most easternmost forming hurricane and placed all of the country under hurricane warning for the first time in its history. It caused 9 deaths and $2.5 million in damage

Erin caused 9 deaths with maybe 5 missing and $10 million in damage which might be a lot for a small developing country. Not sure.

So I would put its retirement at a low 20% but it would definitely be unprecedented.

Edit: that monetary value is the amount the World Bank has allocated to Cape Verde for recovery from Erin, not the actual damage amount which is still unknown.
Last edited by Ulf on Sun Aug 17, 2025 5:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
2 likes   

MadaTheConquistador
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 28
Age: 21
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2025 4:58 pm

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#28 Postby MadaTheConquistador » Sat Aug 16, 2025 3:32 pm

Ulf wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:So, here's a question I have for ya'll; would the heavy flooding and displacement in the Cape Verde islands already warrant possible retirement of "Erin," even if the storm decides to harmlessly curve on out to sea in the coming days?


I believe there has never been a storm getting retired for impact in Cape Verde alone. Also, very few storms actually caused deaths in Cape Verde.

Tropical Storm Fran (1984) caused between 29 to 32 fatalities there and that is the highest by far.

Hurricane Fred in 2015 was the most easternmost forming hurricane and placed all of the country under hurricane warning for the first time in its history. It caused 9 deaths and $2.5 million in damage

Erin caused 9 deaths with maybe 5 missing and $10 million in damage which might be a lot for a small developing country. Not sure.

So I would put its retirement at a low 20% but it would definitely be unprecedented.


I think Erin getting retired is a possibility, but yeah it's too early to tell if it will or not. It all depends on if it makes landfall on the east coast of the U.S. or Canada, how severe the damage is in the Caribbean, or if even Cape Verde decides to request Erin for retirement depending on how severe the damage is for their standards. If Erin does happen to get retired, possible replacements include Eva, Eleanor, Evelyn, Esther, Elizabeth, Evie, Eugenia, and Edith. (I am also pretty sure some of said names were used pre-1979).
1 likes   

User avatar
wwizard
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 75
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:28 pm
Location: TEXAS

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#29 Postby wwizard » Sat Aug 16, 2025 3:59 pm

It wasn’t even named when it went through the islands. I see no chance of retirement.
1 likes   
Alicia, Allison, Ike, Harvey, Beryl

User avatar
Ulf
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2024 9:32 pm

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#30 Postby Ulf » Sun Aug 17, 2025 5:39 pm

Australia should be making retirements for their previous season in a couple months. Robyn, Zelia, and Alfred are definitely getting axed. Highly doubt Errol gets retired but since it made landfall, still a possibility.

Cyclone Alfred was supposed to be named Anthony but got changed due to the latter being the first name of the current Prime Minister.
2 likes   

HurricaneRyan
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 831
Age: 31
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#31 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Aug 18, 2025 2:21 am

Erin could still make a legitimate run for retirement if it defies all the models and makes landfall in a significant way in the US/Canada like someone else said.
0 likes   
Kay '22 Hilary '23

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4230
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#32 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 19, 2025 6:56 am

Here are some interesting stats in the event Erin recurves north safely and avoids inflicting much damages on land. I also looked at the 9 Category 5 hurricanes that happened pre-1953 and, looking at damages and/or death toll, presumed that all of them were impactful enough to warrant retirement in their era had they had names.

- Erin would be the 7th Category 5 hurricane to not get its name retired. There have been 43 recorded Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic thus far, so this isn't exactly a common occurrence.

- Erin would fall under the "female Category 5 E curse" as of the 7 un-retired Category 5 hurricanes, 4 of them had female names that started with E (Esther, Edith, and Emily are the others).

- Erin would be the most intense Category 5 hurricane to not get its name retired (with a pressure of 915 mbar).

- Erin would be one of 5 un-retired Category 5 hurricanes to have their Category 5 status last for 6 hours or less.
3 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

Hurricane Mike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#33 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sat Aug 23, 2025 1:11 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Here are some interesting stats in the event Erin recurves north safely and avoids inflicting much damages on land. I also looked at the 9 Category 5 hurricanes that happened pre-1953 and, looking at damages and/or death toll, presumed that all of them were impactful enough to warrant retirement in their era had they had names.

- Erin would be the 7th Category 5 hurricane to not get its name retired. There have been 43 recorded Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic thus far, so this isn't exactly a common occurrence.

- Erin would fall under the "female Category 5 E curse" as of the 7 un-retired Category 5 hurricanes, 4 of them had female names that started with E (Esther, Edith, and Emily are the others).

- Erin would be the most intense Category 5 hurricane to not get its name retired (with a pressure of 915 mbar).

- Erin would be one of 5 un-retired Category 5 hurricanes to have their Category 5 status last for 6 hours or less.



I don't think Erin will be retired. It is ironic that sometimes the more memorable storm is not the one that warranted retirement.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ulf
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2024 9:32 pm

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#34 Postby Ulf » Wed Sep 03, 2025 3:41 am

The fatalities and damage from Tropical Storm Wipha (Crising) in the Philippines now stand at 40 deaths with 8 missing and $434 million.

Wipha is the only storm with a good chance of retirement in the WPAC basin this year so far. I would give it 75% chance of retirement especially if the basin continues to abnormally produce relatively weak slops instead of super typhoons.

Co-May’s deaths were split between the Philippines and China.

Kajiki did not cause many deaths in Vietnam despite initial fears thanks to evacuation efforts.
0 likes   

Torino
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 101
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:34 am

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#35 Postby Torino » Sat Sep 20, 2025 8:47 pm

Meanwhile in Australia, the names Zelia and Alfred were retired and replaced with Zhu and Akio. Freddy's replacement has also been announced. It's...Frederic :?:
3 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34141
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#36 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 21, 2025 10:39 pm

We're still on track for a zero-retirement Atlantic season as we head into late September...but there's still more of the season to go.
0 likes   

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4230
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#37 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 23, 2025 7:46 pm

Ok...so let me preface things with saying that while I'm not expecting it, I think there's a small but nonzero chance that Erin is going to get retired. While this might sound silly as it barely impacted the Caribbean Islands and the Eastern CONUS and turned out to sea harmlessly, the key part of the story lies with the Cape Verde Islands. Let me explain.

https://community.wmo.int/en/hurricane-committee

Take a look at the list of WMO Hurricane Committee countries. Cape Verde actually joined the committee in 2021, so they're the most recent addition to the group. It's very rare for TSs and hurricanes to directly impact the islands, but in 2015, Hurricane Fred caused 9 deaths and 2.5 million dollars in damage (the last time a hurricane moved through the islands like that was in 1892!). By Cape Verde standards, this was a bad hurricane. But because Cape Verde wasn't a part of the hurricane committee in 2015, there was little they could've done to have "Fred" retired (not to mention it was a Category 1 hurricane, so it probably didn't raise many eyebrows across the wx community simply due to its category even though it was, by Cape Verde standards, a very bad storm).

So, with that in mind, Cape Verde now has the ability to request retirement in the (albeit rare) event they are hit hard by a TS/hurricane. Which brings us to Erin. Per Wikipedia, Erin's precursor caused massive flooding in the islands, displacing 1,500 people, washing away roads, and damaging homes. The flooding event in the Cape Verde islands was notable enough that the World Bank Group gave the island $10 million to recover.


But wait, you may wonder. If that was Erin' precursor, then wouldn't there be a lack of association between the name and the destruction? Well....I'll show you these (not an exhaustive list).

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87eyv810jyo

https://reliefweb.int/report/cabo-verde/cape-verde-africa-floods-response-emergency-appeal-operational-strategy-mdrcv005

https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/eye-on-africa/20250822-cape-verde-recovers-from-deadly-floods-caused-by-storm-erin

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-08-11-tropical-storm-erin-deadly-flooding-cabo-verde


Multiple articles reporting on the event mentioned the name "Erin," so there seems to some sort of general awareness that the cyclone itself was responsible for the horrific floods and subsequent destruction. This seems to have been one of the most notable weather-related disasters in the Cape Verde islands in recent memory.

So, with all of that being said, it's definitely possible that nothing happens and that for whatever reason, Cape Verde doesn't submit a request for Erin's retirement. However, this is perhaps the storm with the strongest retirement candidacy specifically due to Cape Verde impacts at least since 2021, and combined with its naturally memorable (at least in terms of scientific record books) feat of achieving Category 5 status, I wouldn't rule out a "dark horse retirement," kind of like Nate from 2017 or Dora from 2023.
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

User avatar
wwizard
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 75
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:28 pm
Location: TEXAS

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#38 Postby wwizard » Wed Sep 24, 2025 1:40 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Ok...so let me preface things with saying that while I'm not expecting it, I think there's a small but nonzero chance that Erin is going to get retired. While this might sound silly as it barely impacted the Caribbean Islands and the Eastern CONUS and turned out to sea harmlessly, the key part of the story lies with the Cape Verde Islands. Let me explain.

https://community.wmo.int/en/hurricane-committee

Take a look at the list of WMO Hurricane Committee countries. Cape Verde actually joined the committee in 2021, so they're the most recent addition to the group. It's very rare for TSs and hurricanes to directly impact the islands, but in 2015, Hurricane Fred caused 9 deaths and 2.5 million dollars in damage (the last time a hurricane moved through the islands like that was in 1892!). By Cape Verde standards, this was a bad hurricane. But because Cape Verde wasn't a part of the hurricane committee in 2015, there was little they could've done to have "Fred" retired (not to mention it was a Category 1 hurricane, so it probably didn't raise many eyebrows across the wx community simply due to its category even though it was, by Cape Verde standards, a very bad storm).

So, with that in mind, Cape Verde now has the ability to request retirement in the (albeit rare) event they are hit hard by a TS/hurricane. Which brings us to Erin. Per Wikipedia, Erin's precursor caused massive flooding in the islands, displacing 1,500 people, washing away roads, and damaging homes. The flooding event in the Cape Verde islands was notable enough that the World Bank Group gave the island $10 million to recover.


But wait, you may wonder. If that was Erin' precursor, then wouldn't there be a lack of association between the name and the destruction? Well....I'll show you these (not an exhaustive list).

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87eyv810jyo

https://reliefweb.int/report/cabo-verde/cape-verde-africa-floods-response-emergency-appeal-operational-strategy-mdrcv005

https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/eye-on-africa/20250822-cape-verde-recovers-from-deadly-floods-caused-by-storm-erin

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-08-11-tropical-storm-erin-deadly-flooding-cabo-verde


Multiple articles reporting on the event mentioned the name "Erin," so there seems to some sort of general awareness that the cyclone itself was responsible for the horrific floods and subsequent destruction. This seems to have been one of the most notable weather-related disasters in the Cape Verde islands in recent memory.

So, with all of that being said, it's definitely possible that nothing happens and that for whatever reason, Cape Verde doesn't submit a request for Erin's retirement. However, this is perhaps the storm with the strongest retirement candidacy specifically due to Cape Verde impacts at least since 2021, and combined with its naturally memorable (at least in terms of scientific record books) feat of achieving Category 5 status, I wouldn't rule out a "dark horse retirement," kind of like Nate from 2017 or Dora from 2023.


Referring to it as Erin then isn't much different than all those referring to 91L as Gabrielle, other than the fact the Cabo Verde system did go on to become Erin, and shortly after exiting the Cabo Verde system. I get there was a lot of damage done in Sao Vicente and Santo Antao but if the remnants of 91L had gone in and caused massive flooding in say North Carolina, they wouldn't be referring to that as Gabrielle at the time. And if they did, then imagine the confusion of the storm heading toward the Azores as we speak. What became Erin could have fizzled out like 91L did and Erin would have been the fish spinning tropical storm that Fernand was, having nothing to do with the Cabo Verde islands.

This is why it's such a pet peeve of mine for the weather community to put names on these systems before they qualify for a name. If 94L brings torrential flooding to The Bahamas before it forms, then gets shredded apart by 93L and never forms, it won't be referred to as Humberto or Imelda. And no one should be calling either one of these systems Humberto or Imelda right now.
0 likes   
Alicia, Allison, Ike, Harvey, Beryl

User avatar
Travorum
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 543
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2023 9:36 am
Location: Dunedin, FL

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#39 Postby Travorum » Wed Sep 24, 2025 12:29 pm

wwizard wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:But wait, you may wonder. If that was Erin' precursor, then wouldn't there be a lack of association between the name and the destruction? Well....I'll show you these (not an exhaustive list).

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87eyv810jyo

https://reliefweb.int/report/cabo-verde/cape-verde-africa-floods-response-emergency-appeal-operational-strategy-mdrcv005

https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/eye-on-africa/20250822-cape-verde-recovers-from-deadly-floods-caused-by-storm-erin

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-08-11-tropical-storm-erin-deadly-flooding-cabo-verde


Multiple articles reporting on the event mentioned the name "Erin," so there seems to some sort of general awareness that the cyclone itself was responsible for the horrific floods and subsequent destruction. This seems to have been one of the most notable weather-related disasters in the Cape Verde islands in recent memory.

So, with all of that being said, it's definitely possible that nothing happens and that for whatever reason, Cape Verde doesn't submit a request for Erin's retirement. However, this is perhaps the storm with the strongest retirement candidacy specifically due to Cape Verde impacts at least since 2021, and combined with its naturally memorable (at least in terms of scientific record books) feat of achieving Category 5 status, I wouldn't rule out a "dark horse retirement," kind of like Nate from 2017 or Dora from 2023.


Referring to it as Erin then isn't much different than all those referring to 91L as Gabrielle, other than the fact the Cabo Verde system did go on to become Erin, and shortly after exiting the Cabo Verde system. I get there was a lot of damage done in Sao Vicente and Santo Antao but if the remnants of 91L had gone in and caused massive flooding in say North Carolina, they wouldn't be referring to that as Gabrielle at the time. And if they did, then imagine the confusion of the storm heading toward the Azores as we speak. What became Erin could have fizzled out like 91L did and Erin would have been the fish spinning tropical storm that Fernand was, having nothing to do with the Cabo Verde islands.

This is why it's such a pet peeve of mine for the weather community to put names on these systems before they qualify for a name. If 94L brings torrential flooding to The Bahamas before it forms, then gets shredded apart by 93L and never forms, it won't be referred to as Humberto or Imelda. And no one should be calling either one of these systems Humberto or Imelda right now.


I hate when media "pre-names" storms and forecasts track/intensity far too early as well (see Accuweather's forecast for 91L to hit the islands as a Category 2), but in this case it is a little bit different. The articles linked were all published after Erin was already named, so the question then becomes if damage and deaths from a storm's precursor are associated by the public with the subsequent storm. Similar to damage from a storm's remnants but with a little bit more uncertainty as there isn't reliable media in the leadup to the event calling the storm by its future name.
2 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3550
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2025 Tropical Cyclone Name Retirements (Including but not limited to the Atlantic Basin)

#40 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 24, 2025 12:55 pm

Travorum wrote:
wwizard wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:But wait, you may wonder. If that was Erin' precursor, then wouldn't there be a lack of association between the name and the destruction? Well....I'll show you these (not an exhaustive list).

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87eyv810jyo

https://reliefweb.int/report/cabo-verde/cape-verde-africa-floods-response-emergency-appeal-operational-strategy-mdrcv005

https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/eye-on-africa/20250822-cape-verde-recovers-from-deadly-floods-caused-by-storm-erin

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-08-11-tropical-storm-erin-deadly-flooding-cabo-verde


Multiple articles reporting on the event mentioned the name "Erin," so there seems to some sort of general awareness that the cyclone itself was responsible for the horrific floods and subsequent destruction. This seems to have been one of the most notable weather-related disasters in the Cape Verde islands in recent memory.

So, with all of that being said, it's definitely possible that nothing happens and that for whatever reason, Cape Verde doesn't submit a request for Erin's retirement. However, this is perhaps the storm with the strongest retirement candidacy specifically due to Cape Verde impacts at least since 2021, and combined with its naturally memorable (at least in terms of scientific record books) feat of achieving Category 5 status, I wouldn't rule out a "dark horse retirement," kind of like Nate from 2017 or Dora from 2023.


Referring to it as Erin then isn't much different than all those referring to 91L as Gabrielle, other than the fact the Cabo Verde system did go on to become Erin, and shortly after exiting the Cabo Verde system. I get there was a lot of damage done in Sao Vicente and Santo Antao but if the remnants of 91L had gone in and caused massive flooding in say North Carolina, they wouldn't be referring to that as Gabrielle at the time. And if they did, then imagine the confusion of the storm heading toward the Azores as we speak. What became Erin could have fizzled out like 91L did and Erin would have been the fish spinning tropical storm that Fernand was, having nothing to do with the Cabo Verde islands.

This is why it's such a pet peeve of mine for the weather community to put names on these systems before they qualify for a name. If 94L brings torrential flooding to The Bahamas before it forms, then gets shredded apart by 93L and never forms, it won't be referred to as Humberto or Imelda. And no one should be calling either one of these systems Humberto or Imelda right now.


I hate when media "pre-names" storms and forecasts track/intensity far too early as well (see Accuweather's forecast for 91L to hit the islands as a Category 2), but in this case it is a little bit different. The articles linked were all published after Erin was already named, so the question then becomes if damage and deaths from a storm's precursor are associated by the public with the subsequent storm. Similar to damage from a storm's remnants but with a little bit more uncertainty as there isn't reliable media in the leadup to the event calling the storm by its future name.

FYI, the situation here with Erin is very similar, if not identical, to Nate 2017. Costa Rica requested its retirement due to flooding, but the impacts started when it was just an unnamed disturbance. Nate's center never came close to Costa Rica.

That said, its damage was still ongoing when Nate was named on October 5, 2017. A state of emergency was declared for the entire country the next day.

On the other hand, Erin was named on August 11 (15z), and Wikipedia said this:

After heavy rainfall inundated the island on August 11, vehicles were swept away and several homes sustained damage.


Evacuation efforts also continued through August 16, the day when Erin peaked as a Cat 5.

Based on this, it appears quite plausible for the impacts in Cabo Verde to be attributed to Erin locally, even though the storm was only named when it was NW of the islands.
2 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 67 guests