ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[sasha_B]

Extratropical storm surge page indicates tides 1-2 ft above normal as Erin passes. Surf's up Tue-Wed. I still see nothing to indicate Erin is still a Cat 3. The NHC always plays it safe and never downgrades a storm that's impacting any land areas. Can't fault them for that. It's quite normal for a hurricane's wind field to expand after an eyewall replacement. Erin's going to get very large by the time it passes between Bermuda and the OB.

https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etss/index.php?glat=All&display=0&type=stormtide&base=Ocean/World_Ocean_Base

Recon will be able to confirm current intensity soon, and since it's only 1930z now, they should be able to factor that in on the 21z complete advisory. The 18z subjective Dvorak fix was a 5.0 (albeit with objective satellite estimates remaining a little higher), so if recon doesn't find strong support for 100-kt surface winds a downgrade to 90～95 kts would be justified. I do agree that it's hard to fault them for playing it safe here - with land impacts ongoing it's better than the alternative.

[Teban54]

Extratropical storm surge page indicates tides 1-2 ft above normal as Erin passes. Surf's up Tue-Wed. I still see nothing to indicate Erin is still a Cat 3. The NHC always plays it safe and never downgrades a storm that's impacting any land areas. Can't fault them for that. It's quite normal for a hurricane's wind field to expand after an eyewall replacement. Erin's going to get very large by the time it passes between Bermuda and the OB.

https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etss/index.php?glat=All&display=0&type=stormtide&base=Ocean/World_Ocean_Base

Recon will be able to confirm current intensity soon, and since it's only 1930z now, they should be able to factor that in on the 21z complete advisory. The 18z subjective Dvorak fix was a 5.0 (albeit with objective satellite estimates remaining a little higher), so if recon doesn't find strong support for 100-kt surface winds a downgrade to 90～95 kts would be justified. I do agree that it's hard to fault them for playing it safe here - with land impacts ongoing it's better than the alternative.

With the EWRC now seemingly concrete, it's also very possible for Erin to regain strength significantly by the time of the next advisory, or at least for the rest of the day.

[sasha_B]

Extratropical storm surge page indicates tides 1-2 ft above normal as Erin passes. Surf's up Tue-Wed. I still see nothing to indicate Erin is still a Cat 3. The NHC always plays it safe and never downgrades a storm that's impacting any land areas. Can't fault them for that. It's quite normal for a hurricane's wind field to expand after an eyewall replacement. Erin's going to get very large by the time it passes between Bermuda and the OB.

https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etss/index.php?glat=All&display=0&type=stormtide&base=Ocean/World_Ocean_Base

Recon will be able to confirm current intensity soon, and since it's only 1930z now, they should be able to factor that in on the 21z complete advisory. The 18z subjective Dvorak fix was a 5.0 (albeit with objective satellite estimates remaining a little higher), so if recon doesn't find strong support for 100-kt surface winds a downgrade to 90～95 kts would be justified. I do agree that it's hard to fault them for playing it safe here - with land impacts ongoing it's better than the alternative.

With the EWRC now seemingly concrete, it's also very possible for Erin to regain strength significantly by the time of the next advisory, or at least for the rest of the day.

That's also true. Weakening may already have levelled off already though it's not clear yet whether reintensification has started.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BobbyWTSP/status/1957185458628341835

[Travorum]

State of emergency declared for part of the OBX with a mandatory evacuation for Hatteras in zone A:

 https://x.com/ZachHolderWx/status/1957194894734500327

[emeraldislenc]

I knew that was probably coming I imagine they might do same for Ocracoke which is in Hyde County!

[weeniepatrol]

[OuterBanker]

Hmmmm!

NCC055-182101-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Local Area Emergency
NC Dare County Emergency Management
Relayed by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
601 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...DARE COUNTY EM: MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERED OF DARE COUNTY
HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE A (HATTERAS ISLAND)...

The following message is transmitted at the request of Dare County
Emergency Management.

DARE COUNTY EM: STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED WITH MANDATORY
EVACUATION OF DARE COUNTY HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE A (HATTERAS
ISLAND). VISITORS MUST EVACUATE STARTING AT 10AM 8/18/25.
RESIDENTS START AT 8AM 8/19/25. MORE AT DARENC.GOV/HURRICANEERIN

[syfr]

When that last ferry leaves Ocracoke, you're committed.

[aspen]

Recon was just about to make a SE to NW pass but suddenly turned around. Wonder what’s going on. Hopefully nothing serious.

[Hurricane2022]

Sunset over Cat 3 Typhoon Erin after a tough EWRC.

[abajan]

Sunset over Cat 3 Typhoon Erin after a tough EWRC.
https://i.imgur.com/DwmaWfc.gif

Good one.
Seems likely to re-intensify during the night. I'd wager we'll see the MSW at 150 mph in the 5 AM advisory. Roughly at what time does D-Max occur at that latitude, though?

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1957214777089892593


Or maybe they forgot somebody in the base

[eastcoastFL]

Sunset over Cat 3 Typhoon Erin after a tough EWRC.
https://i.imgur.com/DwmaWfc.gif

Looks like the eye is starting to clear out at the end of that loop.

[Category5Kaiju]

Hot waters lie ahead of Erin. The storm hasn't even reached the true 30 C waters yet.

[emeraldislenc]

It is getting that look that it may be getting stronger

[aspen]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1957214777089892593


Or maybe they forgot somebody in the base

My guess is that they got struck by lightning when trying to enter the more convectively active western eyewall. Lightning strikes have caused similar turnarounds in the past, most notably Willa in 2018 (and I think at least one of the 5 failed Eta flights on November 2nd 2020).

Fortunately, unlike Eta, we’re not currently at risk of missing Erin’s peak. Hopefully whatever happened either gets fixed or doesn’t endanger the crew.

[dukeblue219]

It is getting that look that it may be getting stronger

Certainly a big eye is clearing out.

[eastcoastFL]

The storm definitely looks to be getting better organized again quickly.