ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

[Stratton23]

12z Euro gets a little closer to development with 99L, stronger surface reflection on this run, still goes into CA, but seems global models are slowly starting to catch on

[Teban54]

Model tracks are trending less towards recurves, though that may be due to a lack of (depicted) development altogether.

[TomballEd]

12z Euro gets a little closer to development with 99L, stronger surface reflection on this run, still goes into CA, but seems global models are slowly starting to catch on

The Gulf scenario needs it to stay weak long enough to avoid the trough that will capture 90L, but get strong enough to feel the trough it needs to elude and come N. If it waits for the sweet spot in the SW Caribbean where the trades slow and converge, steering would take it due W and into CA. If the models don't change.

ICON gets it to the Gulf because it developed early enough to get pulled up.

[LAF92]

[Stratton23]

That would be quite something else if this became a hurricane lol, unlikely to happen, but can’t say impossible either considering models have whiffed on 99L so far

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON is running. Let's see if it's consistent.

[LAF92]

18z ICON is running. Let's see if it's consistent.

Looks like the 18z ICON still has it through 120 hours albeit no closed circulation but still the wave is making its way through the eastern Caribbean

[Stratton23]

18z ICON only goes only 120 hours , but looks very similar to the 12z run at hour 120, i have no doubt if this run went the full 180 hours it would show a TS

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, the 12Z JMA very similarly to the 12Z Icon has a TD that forms on 8/29 in the NW Caribbean and moves NW toward the N. Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1959010761612627972

[Stratton23]

18z GFS takes 99L into the eastern pacific, then loops it back into the BOC and starts developing it, wonky

[TomballEd]

18z GFS takes 99L into the eastern pacific, then loops it back into the BOC and starts developing it, wonky

I haven't seen the end of the run but Epac waves crossing into the BoC seems like an early season (Alison) or late season (October 1949) thing. There isn't usually anything far enough S in August to pull a system N and back into the Atlantic Basin.

[LAF92]

18z GFS takes it into south Texas as TS but then kinda stalls out. I’m guessing the steering breaks down as it weakens

[AnnularCane]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1959010761612627972

Apparently the notion of general 99L trickiness goes beyond Storm2k.

[LAF92]

00z ICON again showing a tropical storm approaching the Yucatan

[LAF92]

12z ICON still holding to its guns, with a strengthing Tropical Storm going through the Yucatan and into the Gulf.

[Weathertracker96]

https://i.postimg.cc/3xnbbPtT/IMG-5367.jpg

12z ICON still holding to its guns, with a strengthing Tropical Storm going through the Yucatan and into the Gulf.

Does the icon have a good track record at sniffing stuff out before other models join?
Also, what does the steering look like on this?

[LAF92]

https://i.postimg.cc/3xnbbPtT/IMG-5367.jpg

12z ICON still holding to its guns, with a strengthing Tropical Storm going through the Yucatan and into the Gulf.

Does the icon have a good track record at sniffing stuff out before other models join?
Also, what does the steering look like on this?

I feel like there’s not one model that does better than the other ones. Everynow and then a model will sniff it out early but who knows if the ICON is on to something or not.

[Stratton23]

too early to determine steering, but i will say the 12z global models are getting closer to showing a low closing off just before the leeward islands

[WeatherBoy2000]

too early to determine steering, but i will say the 12z global models are getting closer to showing a low closing off just before the leeward islands

99l is much more convectively healthy compared to yesterday so it may have another shot at being a short-lived td/ts before entering the proverbial "graveyard." 99l isn't going down easy.