ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
12z Euro gets a little closer to development with 99L, stronger surface reflection on this run, still goes into CA, but seems global models are slowly starting to catch on
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Model tracks are trending less towards recurves, though that may be due to a lack of (depicted) development altogether.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Stratton23 wrote:12z Euro gets a little closer to development with 99L, stronger surface reflection on this run, still goes into CA, but seems global models are slowly starting to catch on
The Gulf scenario needs it to stay weak long enough to avoid the trough that will capture 90L, but get strong enough to feel the trough it needs to elude and come N. If it waits for the sweet spot in the SW Caribbean where the trades slow and converge, steering would take it due W and into CA. If the models don't change.
ICON gets it to the Gulf because it developed early enough to get pulled up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
That would be quite something else if this became a hurricane lol, unlikely to happen, but can’t say impossible either considering models have whiffed on 99L so far
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
18z ICON is running. Let's see if it's consistent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Kingarabian wrote:18z ICON is running. Let's see if it's consistent.
Looks like the 18z ICON still has it through 120 hours albeit no closed circulation but still the wave is making its way through the eastern Caribbean
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
18z ICON only goes only 120 hours , but looks very similar to the 12z run at hour 120, i have no doubt if this run went the full 180 hours it would show a TS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Fwiw, the 12Z JMA very similarly to the 12Z Icon has a TD that forms on 8/29 in the NW Caribbean and moves NW toward the N. Yucatan.
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ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion (30/40)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
18z GFS takes 99L into the eastern pacific, then loops it back into the BOC and starts developing it, wonky
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Stratton23 wrote:18z GFS takes 99L into the eastern pacific, then loops it back into the BOC and starts developing it, wonky
I haven't seen the end of the run but Epac waves crossing into the BoC seems like an early season (Alison) or late season (October 1949) thing. There isn't usually anything far enough S in August to pull a system N and back into the Atlantic Basin.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
18z GFS takes it into south Texas as TS but then kinda stalls out. I’m guessing the steering breaks down as it weakens
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion (30/40)

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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
00z ICON again showing a tropical storm approaching the Yucatan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

12z ICON still holding to its guns, with a strengthing Tropical Storm going through the Yucatan and into the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
LAF92 wrote: https://i.postimg.cc/3xnbbPtT/IMG-5367.jpg
12z ICON still holding to its guns, with a strengthing Tropical Storm going through the Yucatan and into the Gulf.
Does the icon have a good track record at sniffing stuff out before other models join?
Also, what does the steering look like on this?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Weathertracker96 wrote:LAF92 wrote: https://i.postimg.cc/3xnbbPtT/IMG-5367.jpg
12z ICON still holding to its guns, with a strengthing Tropical Storm going through the Yucatan and into the Gulf.
Does the icon have a good track record at sniffing stuff out before other models join?
Also, what does the steering look like on this?
I feel like there’s not one model that does better than the other ones. Everynow and then a model will sniff it out early but who knows if the ICON is on to something or not.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
too early to determine steering, but i will say the 12z global models are getting closer to showing a low closing off just before the leeward islands
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Stratton23 wrote:too early to determine steering, but i will say the 12z global models are getting closer to showing a low closing off just before the leeward islands
99l is much more convectively healthy compared to yesterday so it may have another shot at being a short-lived td/ts before entering the proverbial "graveyard." 99l isn't going down easy.
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