2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Pelicane]

I think you’re missing the point.

What did I miss? The brewing in the Gulf does not yield a pot of tropical coffee.

The point is that just about the entire Gulf will be at least somewhat favorable for development beginning mid month.

Right on cue, the GFS has something trying to form in the WCAR in around 8-10 days.

[TomballEd]

What did I miss? The brewing in the Gulf does not yield a pot of tropical coffee.

The point is that just about the entire Gulf will be at least somewhat favorable for development beginning mid month.

Right on cue, the GFS has something trying to form in the WCAR in around 8-10 days.

1008 mb depression for Florida. 12Z GFS members are a little better as far as members, there is even a Lake Charles/Cameron landfall perturbation. I view ensembles beyond 10 days for entertainment purposes.

[LAF92]

12z GEFS has a stronger signal that the last few runs. Funny enough it might have a stronger signal than future Gabbriel in the Caribbean

[Stratton23]

Might have to watch that area of convection to the SW of 91L , seems like some ensemble members are picking up on that developing in the western caribbean in 9-10 days, far out and a pretty low signal, but worth keeping a lazy eye on for sure lol

[zzzh]

Might have to watch that area of convection to the SW of 91L , seems like some ensemble members are picking up on that developing in the western caribbean in 9-10 days, far out and a pretty low signal, but worth keeping a lazy eye on for sure lol

100%. It actually has a way better structure than 91L. A closed circulation with plenty of convection.

[zzzh]

Monsoon trough break downs are tricky to forecast. I remember no models showed Franklin'23 developing until about 2~3 days before it reached TS intensity. It should be noted that Franklin was also in the western edge of the monsoon trough.

[Teban54]

Might have to watch that area of convection to the SW of 91L , seems like some ensemble members are picking up on that developing in the western caribbean in 9-10 days, far out and a pretty low signal, but worth keeping a lazy eye on for sure lol

100%. It actually has a way better structure than 91L. A closed circulation with plenty of convection.
https://i.imgur.com/k0wujU7.png

:uarrow: Monsoon trough break downs are tricky to forecast. I remember no models showed Franklin'23 developing until about 2~3 days before it reached TS intensity. It should be noted that Franklin was also in the western edge of the monsoon trough.

I made a new post for this area, with some more discussions of how it was portrayed in the 12z model runs.

[Teban54]

18z GFS brings back the MDR storm behind 91L, but it takes one of the most bizarre tracks that I've seen (even for a fantasy-range storm). Lifts almost due north to 22N, only to do the classic WSW dive towards the islands.

[LarryWx]

From something well to the W of 91L coming out of the Caribbean in 6-7 days, the 6Z GEFS is pretty active mainly in the Gulf with a couple E of FL. Some of these members are hurricanes.

*Edit: The GEFS/EPS of the last few days have had the MJO then in or near the most dangerous phase for July-Sept CONUS H hits, phase 2.

Edit: 6Z GEFS suggests there could be another TC coming out of the W Caribbean later.