2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Pelicane]

I think you’re missing the point.

What did I miss? The brewing in the Gulf does not yield a pot of tropical coffee.

The point is that just about the entire Gulf will be at least somewhat favorable for development beginning mid month.

Right on cue, the GFS has something trying to form in the WCAR in around 8-10 days.

[TomballEd]

What did I miss? The brewing in the Gulf does not yield a pot of tropical coffee.

The point is that just about the entire Gulf will be at least somewhat favorable for development beginning mid month.

Right on cue, the GFS has something trying to form in the WCAR in around 8-10 days.

1008 mb depression for Florida. 12Z GFS members are a little better as far as members, there is even a Lake Charles/Cameron landfall perturbation. I view ensembles beyond 10 days for entertainment purposes.

[LAF92]

12z GEFS has a stronger signal that the last few runs. Funny enough it might have a stronger signal than future Gabbriel in the Caribbean

[Stratton23]

Might have to watch that area of convection to the SW of 91L , seems like some ensemble members are picking up on that developing in the western caribbean in 9-10 days, far out and a pretty low signal, but worth keeping a lazy eye on for sure lol

[zzzh]

Might have to watch that area of convection to the SW of 91L , seems like some ensemble members are picking up on that developing in the western caribbean in 9-10 days, far out and a pretty low signal, but worth keeping a lazy eye on for sure lol

100%. It actually has a way better structure than 91L. A closed circulation with plenty of convection.

[zzzh]

Monsoon trough break downs are tricky to forecast. I remember no models showed Franklin'23 developing until about 2~3 days before it reached TS intensity. It should be noted that Franklin was also in the western edge of the monsoon trough.

[Teban54]

Might have to watch that area of convection to the SW of 91L , seems like some ensemble members are picking up on that developing in the western caribbean in 9-10 days, far out and a pretty low signal, but worth keeping a lazy eye on for sure lol

100%. It actually has a way better structure than 91L. A closed circulation with plenty of convection.
https://i.imgur.com/k0wujU7.png

:uarrow: Monsoon trough break downs are tricky to forecast. I remember no models showed Franklin'23 developing until about 2~3 days before it reached TS intensity. It should be noted that Franklin was also in the western edge of the monsoon trough.

I made a new post for this area, with some more discussions of how it was portrayed in the 12z model runs.

[Teban54]

18z GFS brings back the MDR storm behind 91L, but it takes one of the most bizarre tracks that I've seen (even for a fantasy-range storm). Lifts almost due north to 22N, only to do the classic WSW dive towards the islands.

[LarryWx]

From something well to the W of 91L coming out of the Caribbean in 6-7 days, the 6Z GEFS is pretty active mainly in the Gulf with a couple E of FL. Some of these members are hurricanes.

*Edit: The GEFS/EPS of the last few days have had the MJO then in or near the most dangerous phase for July-Sept CONUS H hits, phase 2.

Edit: 6Z GEFS suggests there could be another TC coming out of the W Caribbean later.

[TomballEd]

From something well to the W of 91L coming out of the Caribbean in 6-7 days, the 6Z GEFS is pretty active mainly in the Gulf with a couple E of FL. Some of these members are hurricanes.

*Edit: The GEFS/EPS of the last few days have had the MJO then in or near the most dangerous phase for July-Sept CONUS H hits, phase 2.

Edit: 6Z GEFS suggests there could be another TC coming out of the W Caribbean later.

Looking at the op, the attempt as TCG in the Gulf is thwarted by a Pacific system that develops first. I'm assuming the members showing a storm develop the EPac system farther W or even earlier, or maybe not at all.

[Stratton23]

Still a CAG signal on the GEFS, a couple of really strong members in the gulf around day 9-10 ish

[Category5Kaiju]

For what it’s worth, the latest GEFS ensembles show an explosion of MDR activity around the September 15 timeframe, as well as a few strong members in the Gulf, which would also be on par with the upcoming predicted favorable phase of the MJO.

I will admit, the 91L bust made me realize that perhaps the background state right now simply isn’t conducive for deep tropical activity. At least not yet.

But we still have 25 days left this month, and seasons with a quiet/dead climatological peak season and activity ramping up in mid-late September are not unheard of, especially as of recently. I don’t see how or why 2025 would not be able to accomplish something like this, especially when instability rises during the fall and after literally generating a powerhouse Category 5 hurricane in August.

[Stratton23]

EPS kind of hints at what the GEFS is showing in the western half of the basin, in the 10-12 day range, but with the MJO going into 1/2 and potentially stalling in those phases, I wouldnt be the least bit surprised to see a signal for the western caribbean/ grow in the coming days, those phases typically favor US landfalls , and id argue it favora more chances for gulf/ w. caribbean activity in relation to the CAG

[Hurricaneman]

Might have to watch that area of convection to the SW of 91L , seems like some ensemble members are picking up on that developing in the western caribbean in 9-10 days, far out and a pretty low signal, but worth keeping a lazy eye on for sure lol

100%. It actually has a way better structure than 91L. A closed circulation with plenty of convection.
https://i.imgur.com/k0wujU7.png

Wouldn’t be surprised if models drop 91L for this feature but the area at 25W is interesting as there is turning there too, that could be an unmodeled sleeper

[Teban54]

I know that "the next wave" is crying wolf now, but FWIW, 18z GEFS shows pretty good support in the Eastern Atlantic:



EPS has the wave much further south in the MDR. Much weaker support, but still shows some developing members (and the previous 0z run had even more):

[Stratton23]

GFS continues to show development in the western caribbean in 7 days, trough cuts off from the east coast and moves into the gulf, interacts with some energy in the western caribbean and pops off low pressure

[LAF92]

Alot of moisture in the gulf around day 7 on the GFS. I think the odds of seeing something develop should continue to increase.

[Category5Kaiju]

Recent GEFS ensembles seem excited about a possible system in the Gulf and an MDR system by the September 12-14 timeframe. Will this be a legit signal unlike 91L and be the beginning of a switch flip? We shall see.

[Stratton23]

GEFS with a noticeable increase in a signal for development in the NW caribbean or gulf around the 12-14th of september, which perfectly lines up with the MJO moving into the atlantic basin by then, ill admit im growing intrigued in this possibility

[LAF92]

One of the strongest signals from the GEFS in a while for the 7-10 day period.