NATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion (90/90)

[Nimbus]

Part of me is waiting for this one to get past 60/90 (91L's peak).

Looks like it might close off near 13N which means it could lose its moisture feed from the wave form like 91L.
But its later in the season and the Strat clumps aren't moving as fast so should be interesting to watch.

[cycloneye]

AnnularCane Tied with 91L.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure is located about midway between
the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa. This system
is showing signs of organization, and is expected to move through a
favorable environment for further development. A tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the middle to
latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Pasch

[AnnularCane]

Okay, little 92L. Come on, you can do it!

[StormWeather]

Okay, little 92L. Come on, you can do it!

Already looking like it could form as soon as tomorrow afternoon or evening with it’s current appearance.

[WaveBreaking]

Made my own True Color image of 92L from a little earlier today using the Red, Blue, and Veggie GOES bands. I was thinking about posting a tutorial on how to make these images

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2025091600, , BEST, 0, 123N, 410W, 25, 1009, DB

[Hurricane2022]

Wow

[Teban54]

[ElectricStorm]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to show signs of
organization with a broad area of low pressure located about midway
between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or
two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to
15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2025091606, , BEST, 0, 125N, 419W, 30, 1008, DB

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Looking really good this morning. I’d say almost there.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of
west Africa have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day
or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10
to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1967873382071861420

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Oodles of convection this morning. Looks like good rotation in the lower levels too. I think today is the day.

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point, I think it's safe to say that this will not be a repeat of 91L

[cycloneye]

Only a matter of time.

[abajan]

12Z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2025091612, , BEST, 0, 134N, 415W, 30, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

12Z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2025091612, , BEST, 0, 134N, 415W, 30, 1007, DB

MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS, Very good news for Bermuda if this keeps up.

[TallyTracker]

This storm is massive! The circulation covers about 10 degrees of latitude and longitude! That may make development slower, but I’m interested in how the storm evolves as it gains latitude. Typically storms get larger as they enter the subtropics.

[Buck]

This storm is massive! The circulation covers about 10 degrees of latitude and longitude! That may make development slower, but I’m interested in how the storm evolves as it gains latitude. Typically storms get larger as they enter the subtropics.

I was noticing this too… if *she* is already this big, I wonder what she’s going to be like in a week to two with that extratropical transition.