NATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Hammy]

Wild to think about the fact that we won't reach our second hurricane until the third week of September

[cycloneye]

There is shear affecting it as the low is west of the convection.

[Steve H.]

TD 7 looks awful this morning. Looks almost like it’s splitting in half. But as cycloneye pointed out, the weak circulation is west of the center. Not ideal for development. It will be interesting how the models handle it moving forward

[MarioProtVI]

There is shear affecting it as the low is west of the convection.

https://i.imgur.com/oz3EvUE.gif

This does not look like a TC at all. NHC designated way too early IMO because this just looks like a broad trough. Only in 2025

[abajan]

Wild to think about the fact that we won't reach our second hurricane until the third week of September

That's because we've become spoilt by the last few decades of high activity. I'm old enough to clearly recall how dead the 1970s and 1980s were. And the '80s had several years with dense Sahara dust outbreaks too.

[TomballEd]

Looking at the satellite I still see a very stretched center with the partially exposed center at 20N looking more like a TC than anything down around 14N. I'm sure NHC has better satellites than I do, but if I were king of NHC, TD7 would still be an invest. I agree w/ Mario.

[wxman57]

Just received the 12Z guidance and it's 1.5 deg north of that guidance which came out earlier this morning. I don't think there is a well-defined center. Nothing identifiable on visible loops. The environment in its path does NOT appear to be very favorable - not until it makes the north turn on Sunday or Monday. It may struggle for the next 48 hours, not reaching TS strength. A weaker system will track farther west before the northerly turn, but I think that the turn will still be well east of the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

AL, 07, 2025091712, , BEST, 0, 165N, 465W, 30, 1007, TD