NATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Hammy]

Wild to think about the fact that we won't reach our second hurricane until the third week of September

[cycloneye]

There is shear affecting it as the low is west of the convection.

[Steve H.]

TD 7 looks awful this morning. Looks almost like it’s splitting in half. But as cycloneye pointed out, the weak circulation is west of the center. Not ideal for development. It will be interesting how the models handle it moving forward

[MarioProtVI]

There is shear affecting it as the low is west of the convection.

https://i.imgur.com/oz3EvUE.gif

This does not look like a TC at all. NHC designated way too early IMO because this just looks like a broad trough. Only in 2025

[abajan]

Wild to think about the fact that we won't reach our second hurricane until the third week of September

That's because we've become spoilt by the last few decades of high activity. I'm old enough to clearly recall how dead the 1970s and 1980s were. And the '80s had several years with dense Sahara dust outbreaks too.

[TomballEd]

Looking at the satellite I still see a very stretched center with the partially exposed center at 20N looking more like a TC than anything down around 14N. I'm sure NHC has better satellites than I do, but if I were king of NHC, TD7 would still be an invest. I agree w/ Mario.

[wxman57]

Just received the 12Z guidance and it's 1.5 deg north of that guidance which came out earlier this morning. I don't think there is a well-defined center. Nothing identifiable on visible loops. The environment in its path does NOT appear to be very favorable - not until it makes the north turn on Sunday or Monday. It may struggle for the next 48 hours, not reaching TS strength. A weaker system will track farther west before the northerly turn, but I think that the turn will still be well east of the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

AL, 07, 2025091712, , BEST, 0, 165N, 465W, 30, 1007, TD

[wxman57]

The only rotation I see on visible satellite is near 19.9N/47.6W. That's way north of the best track. Models backed way off on strengthening overnight. Hopefully, this is another dud.

[wxman57]

Looking at the satellite I still see a very stretched center with the partially exposed center at 20N looking more like a TC than anything down around 14N. I'm sure NHC has better satellites than I do, but if I were king of NHC, TD7 would still be an invest. I agree w/ Mario.

No, they don't have any better satellite at NHC. I agree with the rotation way north of their position. This doesn't qualify as a TD. Will be interesting to read the NHC's discussion at 15Z.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The only rotation I see on visible satellite is near 19.9N/47.6W. That's way north of the best track. Models backed way off on strengthening overnight. Hopefully, this is another dud.

I mean it's expected to stay away from land and we desparately need something to track, I think this is an ok one to root for, even if it looks like garbage right now.

[StormWeather]

How is this a Tropical Storm?

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

...GABRIELLE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 46.6W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Portion of discussion about why the upgrade.

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the large system is
not well-organized, with an elongated circulation
oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast containing a few
embedded swirls. The advisory center is a mean center of those
swirls, with any associated convection well east of the position due
to southwesterly shear. While it wouldn't appear so from
conventional satellite data, a recent scatterometer pass indicates
upwards of 40-kt winds present, generally northeast and southeast of
the center of circulation. Although the system is at best
marginally well defined, there is enough data to support an initial
intensity of 40 kt, and the depression is named Gabrielle.

[LarryWx]

I bet Bastardi will have a thing or two to say about this upgrade.

[wwizard]

The only rotation I see on visible satellite is near 19.9N/47.6W. That's way north of the best track. Models backed way off on strengthening overnight. Hopefully, this is another dud.

I mean it's expected to stay away from land and we desparately need something to track, I think this is an ok one to root for, even if it looks like garbage right now.

I get what you’re saying but I’d like the NHC to just be a little more consistent. There’s systems just this year that looked much better than TD7 that they held off pulling the trigger on. Didn’t they move Andrea’s formation up a full day in the TCR or something like that? If the system meets the criteria for TC then pull the trigger, if it doesn’t then don’t. And I don’t care about wasting names or whatever.

This system may eventually get there so I guess it won’t matter in the end but what’s going on with the live as it’s happening team in Miami?

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, I already seen plenty of NHC bashing in social media. Let's have good discussions without heated exchanges as I have seen already. Thank you.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I bet Bastardi will have a thing or two to say about this upgrade.

LOL without a doubt

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The only rotation I see on visible satellite is near 19.9N/47.6W. That's way north of the best track. Models backed way off on strengthening overnight. Hopefully, this is another dud.

I mean it's expected to stay away from land and we desparately need something to track, I think this is an ok one to root for, even if it looks like garbage right now.

I get what you’re saying but I’d like the NHC to just be a little more consistent. There’s systems just this year that looked much better than TD7 that they held off pulling the trigger on. Didn’t they move Andrea’s formation up a full day in the TCR or something like that? If the system meets the criteria for TC then pull the trigger, if it doesn’t then don’t. And I don’t care about wasting names or whatever.

This system may eventually get there so I guess it won’t matter in the end but what’s going on with the live as it’s happening team in Miami?

I'm more referring to the "hopefully this is another dud" part in that it's a storm that could fulfill our tracking desires without any assured death and destruction (hence why I bolded that part). I 100% agree it's probably something they normally wouldn't classify in its current state.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I only see one center at 20N barrelling west. I don't see any other ones

[chaser1]

Up late last night & slept in. Checked Tidbits for the full Atlantic visible satellite. My immediate thought.... looks like an occluded front dropping south of a healthy gale. If the Atlantic could talk, I think it would be saying "you been punked "