WPAC: RAGASA - Typhoon

[mrbagyo]

I hope this AWS stays up if 90W makes a trip over the Calayan Island.

AWS
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bTBSO.png


vs


SYNOPTIC
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bTBSB.png

Do you have the link?

Panahon.gov link

[Hayabusa]

24W TWENTYFOUR 250918 1200 15.9N 133.0E WPAC 30 1005

[Hayabusa]

Jma named it as Ragasa

[mrbagyo]

Jma named it as Ragasa

Derived from the root word ‘ragasa,’ the Tagalog verb ‘rumaragasa’ means ‘raging’ or ‘surging,’ and is often used to describe the intense, fast movement of flowing water.

[mrbagyo]

EURO simulated visible loop

[cycloneye]

IMO, that 115kt peak is a bit conservative based on the guidance.

[ElectricStorm]

Well we had to wait all the way to mid September but we finally have a legit candidate for the first super typhoon of the year, and just the second storm to even hit Cat 3. We'll see if it can live up to the model hype unlike a couple previous systems.

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 24W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TRACK SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SLOW DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY BUILDS. AFTER TAU 72,
THE RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF KYUSHU WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE
MOTION OF THE VORTEX, CAUSING TRACK SPEEDS TO PICK UP AND THE TRACK
TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM TAU 96 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 24W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 TO AROUND 60 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY
INCREASE, ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72 TO
AROUND 105 KTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, ALLOWING FOR PRIME CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT, 24W
IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 115 KTS. NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KTS, CAUSING THE INTENSIFICATION TREND TO
HALT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH A 128 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
AT TAU 72 AND A 182 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. THERE ARE
ALSO NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS, ALLOWING FOR THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
TO BE PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, ON
THE OTHER HAND, HAS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY. THOUGH ALL MODELS
DEPICT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 96, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
VARIES. MANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS ARE TRIGGERING, SUGGESTING
AS HIGH AS 100 KTS IN 48 HOURS. HAFS-A HAS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140
KTS AT TAU 84 AND IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN TERMS OF THE PEAK.
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN ABOUT 10-15 KTS HIGHER AFTERWARD
WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE.

[cycloneye]

I begin to fear for those people who live in those small islands between Luzón and Taiwan, not only about the very strong winds but the big storm surge.

12z HAFS-A:

[Hayabusa]

Euro (and its AI) 12z striking Hong Kong, could be a new record holder for Hong Kong.

[cycloneye]

JTWC up to TS Ragasa.

24W RAGASA 250918 1800 16.2N 132.3E WPAC 35 1004

[cycloneye]

21z.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 24W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE POSITIONED IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AROUND TAU 24, THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SLIGHT ACCELERATION AS WELL AS
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR A PERIOD OF ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND EXTEND EASTWARD,
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TS 24W IS EXPECTED TO UTILIZE THE
OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND INTENSIFY CONTINUOUSLY
THROUGH AROUND TAU 96, WITH POTENTIAL PERIODS OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 115-125
KTS BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96. THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT IS
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTH, BUT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THOSE
IMPACTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, TS
RAGASA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING, AS ITS WIND FIELD STARTS
INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LUZON, SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND
EVENTUALLY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
PREDICTING A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WHICH REFLECTS THE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIALLY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS
EVIDENT THROUGH A 40 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 12, OPENING TO
140 NM BY TAU 48 AND EVENTUALLY NEARLY 300 NM AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES LANDFALL. ALL CURRENTLY AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HOWEVER
INDICATES TRACK WITHIN THE LUZON STRAIT, WITH MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS POINTING TOWARDS CENTERED PLACEMENT. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS ASSESSED ON THE HIGHER END OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72. ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MULTIPLE RI AIDS TRIGGERED (RICN, RIPA, FRIA, RIDE). AFTER TAU
72 THE GUIDANCE IS MORE SPREAD, WITH MOST CONSERVATIVE
NAVGEM-DRIVEN COAMPS-TC (SHOWING PEAK OF 90-95 KTS) AND MOST
AGGRESSIVE HAFS-A (INDICATING 130-135 KTS MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND TAU
84. OVERALL INTENSITY SPREAD AT PEAK IS CURRENTLY 55 KTS,
REFLECTIVE THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 72.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

A. 24W (RAGASA)

B. 18/2330Z

C. 16.4N

D. 131.1E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH
A LLCC <1.25 DEG FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE
MET EQUALS 1.5 AND THE PT EQUALS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
PULSING/IRREGULAR CONVECTION AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LINER

[cycloneye]

New peak intensity at 120kt. Hong Kong may be in crosshairs.

[Hayabusa]

18Z eps has 180 kts max wind peak ensemble

[cycloneye]

[kevin]

00z hurricane models peak intensity:

HWRF = 922 mb / 134 kt
HAFS-A = 904 mb / 156 kt

[cycloneye]

A. 24W (RAGASA)

B. 19/1130Z

C. 16.2N

D. 130.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY

H. REMARKS...LLCC LOCATED >1/3 DEGREE INTO DG RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5
USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 24
HOUR TREND. THE PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MONAGHAN

[cycloneye]

24W RAGASA 250919 1200 16.3N 130.1E WPAC 45 996