NATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[TomballEd]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5165/Tfp0gz.gif

At least it has convection now. NHC seems pretty confident is will survive then thrive.

[Sciencerocks]

Only after moving into the subtropics. This is typical of a very unfavorable season.

[Jr0d]

The wave models and surf forecast has backed off considerably. However Gabriel is still forecasted to send a significant swell to the US east coast and will likely be a rip current threat.

I am not certain as its current condition will barely produce anything at all significant and if it continues to "under perform" those surf forecast will continue to back off,as will the rip current risk.

That said, Gabrielle sending a smaller swell to the beaches might be more hazardous as beach goers will stay out of the water when the surf is big, however a small swell with long intervals between sets(not wave period) can make the water look inviting but will have still strong rip currents that go unnoticed by most beach goers.

Small surf with infrequent relatively longer period sets are in my opinion, as a former ocean lifeguard, are the kind of conditions where we have the most rescues and unfortunately drownings.

Something to keep an eye on if Gabrielle stengthens as currently forecast.

[mitchell]

The wave models and surf forecast has backed off considerably. However Gabriel is still forecasted to send a significant swell to the US east coast and will likely be a rip current threat.

I am not certain as its current condition will barely produce anything at all significant and if it continues to "under perform" those surf forecast will continue to back off, as will the rip current risk.

Yeah 18 z swell models have backed off all the way down to 4 feet @ 12 seconds ESE swell for the most exposed spots on the Outer Banks on Tuesday the 23rd with peak significant wave heights (nearshore) of around 5 feet. Smaller size in Florida and New England, so pretty minor swell event, if verifies.