NATL: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

750mb FL 119kt.

[Teban54]

[Kazmit]

750mb FL 119kt.

Looks like it may be a cat 4 already since this wasn’t even in the NE quad.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/KacperWx/status/1970160607933366735

[Teban54]

Latest extrap is 951.5 mb. The previous pass, a little under 1.5 hours ago, was 955.2 mb. (Tropical Tidbits seems to suggest that an eye drop showed 957 mb, but I can't find it.)

Obviously extrap pressures may not be super reliable, but using these alone suggests a deepening rate of 2.6 mb/hr.

[aspen]

I thought the NHC forecasting a major in yesterday’s cone was a little optimistic, but wow Gabrielle has sure overachieved today. Especially since we weren’t sure it was even a TC for the first day lol.

Bermuda is lucky this is getting picked up by a trough right about now.

[cycloneye]

Getting stronger:

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 127kt at 16:56z

[Travorum]

Getting stronger:

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 127kt at 16:56z

NOAA3 saw that and made a U-turn right back to that area

[kevin]

Getting stronger:

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 127kt at 16:56z

Sufficient for an upgrade to a 115 kt cat 4. Extremely impressive considering where Gabrielle came from.

[cycloneye]

Latest extrap is 951.5 mb. The previous pass, a little under 1.5 hours ago, was 955.2 mb. (Tropical Tidbits seems to suggest that an eye drop showed 957 mb, but I can't find it.)

Obviously extrap pressures may not be super reliable, but using these alone suggests a deepening rate of 2.6 mb/hr.

https://i.postimg.cc/bwWscYf9/recon-NOAA3-WH07-A-GABRIELLE-zoom.png

NOAA 3 has only dropped one dropsonde and was out of eye.

[zzzh]

700mb FL 129kt is enough for an upgrade to Cat 4.

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

Peak Flight-Level Wind: 129kt at 17:04z

By the way, kudos to a well known person who is part of the crew of NOAA 3, Andy Hazelton.

[tolakram]

[Travorum]

Looking at tail doppler radar data I'm thinking Gabrielle went through/is in the late stages of an eyewall meld rather than a traditional EWRC.

[kevin]

This season is going for quality instead of quantity. Looks like a very healthy cat 4.

[Teban54]

Note that there's a satellite data outage now: Most sources that I know only have GOES imagery as of 16:30z (12:30 pm EDT, almost 2 hours ago), not later.

[Sciencerocks]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

There is a commonly held belief in Bermuda that the waters here could not support a category 5, and perhaps not even a category 4. Seeing this swirl just offshore has been eye opening.

[cycloneye]

New lowest pressure from NOAA3.

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 949.6mb at 18:18z