NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

ASCAT is needed to see if it is already a TD or not.

[aspen]

ASCAT is needed to see if it is already a TD or not.

https://i.imgur.com/Ji4Kzlf.gif

Much further along that 94L, it seems. If this keeps up then it’ll probably become the dominant system like in today’s 6z GFS, which’ll be great for everyone on the East Coast.

[cycloneye]

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form later today or Thursday
while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2025092412, , BEST, 0, 191N, 537W, 30, 1010, DB

[Teban54]

Still disheveled, but will easily meet the criteria for a TC soon.

[BobHarlem]

hy2b scat, no development for either wave today. no closed LLC on here anyway. It's not out of the question neither wave winds up developing. But I'd suspect maybe late Thursday or Friday for this one and late sat/sunday for 94.

[zzzh]

That's not the ASCAT. That's the HY-2B scatterometer and is not very accurate in general.

[BobHarlem]

:uarrow: That's not the ASCAT. That's the HY-2B scatterometer and is not very accurate in general.

True, but no closed llc is still the callout.

[Teban54]

hy2b scat, no development for either wave today. no closed LLC on here anyway. It's not out of the question neither wave winds up developing. But I'd suspect maybe late Thursday or Friday for this one and late sat/sunday for 94.

https://i.imgur.com/5911478.png

Here's a swirl around 19.5N 54.3W, which would contradict the "no closed LLC".

[kevin]

While unfortunately not complete enough to say anything about a closed circulation, an ASCAT pass from about 16 hours ago already had one 35 kt barb.

[chaser1]

hy2b scat, no development for either wave today. no closed LLC on here anyway. It's not out of the question neither wave winds up developing. But I'd suspect maybe late Thursday or Friday for this one and late sat/sunday for 94.

https://i.imgur.com/5911478.png

Here's a swirl around 19.5N 54.3W, which would contradict the "no closed LLC".

https://i.postimg.cc/QC6QZvYw/goes19-vis-93-L-202509241405.gif

Can't deny what the eyes see! 12 hr's from now we'll could well have building convection over and near that center. Or, that tiny circulation could have spit out while running ahead of the convection due to the UL shear. That would be my primary contention with an upgrade at this time.

[kevin]

Very interested what recon will find. Some of the models indicate 93L should already be around TS intensity right now:
12z GFS = 1012 mb, 35 kt
12z HWRF = 1013 mb, 36 kt
12z HMON = 1010 mb, 34 kt
12z HAFS-A = 1009 mb, 38 kt
12z HAFS-B = 1009 mb, 36 kt

[chaser1]

Very interested what recon will find. Some of the models indicate 93L should already be around TS intensity right now:
12z GFS = 1012 mb, 35 kt
12z HWRF = 1013 mb, 36 kt
12z HMON = 1010 mb, 34 kt
12z HAFS-A = 1009 mb, 38 kt
12z HAFS-B = 1009 mb, 36 kt

When is recon scheduled for 93L? The initial mission is for 94L (Gulfstream for UL sampling I think).

[desertrat75]

Hey. Sorry for the stupid question, but which one of these is 93 and which one is 94? It's never on the maps until they're named.

[tolakram]

Hey. Sorry for the stupid question, but which one of these is 93 and which one is 94? It's never on the maps until they're named.

At the NHC site hover over the map. I'm over the right hand red area.

[chaser1]

hy2b scat, no development for either wave today. no closed LLC on here anyway. It's not out of the question neither wave winds up developing. But I'd suspect maybe late Thursday or Friday for this one and late sat/sunday for 94.

https://i.imgur.com/5911478.png

Here's a swirl around 19.5N 54.3W, which would contradict the "no closed LLC".

https://i.postimg.cc/QC6QZvYw/goes19-vis-93-L-202509241405.gif

Latest satellite showing the well defined center becoming co-located with the convection atm. I'd guess NHC will pull the T.D. trigger between this evening and tomorrow a.m.

[TomballEd]

It has a *mostly* naked LLC. Its sheared, but it has storms. I'd upgrade at 4 pm if I were King of NHC.

[tolakram]

Here we go, and some doubt but I still think this is a TD.

[cycloneye]

TD or TS this afternoon or evening.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
A low pressure system located several hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands, has become better defined with showers and
thunderstorms becoming better organized this afternoon. If these
trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical
depression or storm later today or tonight. The system is expected
to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]