NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is a huge blow up over the center this morning. This is ready to go

[ronjon]

Looks like the 20-40 kts of westerly shear has shifted north of the storm this morning. Should actually now aid in ventilation.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Still don't see any outflow on the west side - looks like shear still limiting it a little. Won't be enough to stop some strengthening though.

[Teban54]

Does the last frame count as a shrimp?

[tolakram]

saved loop

[sponger]

Icon sets up a nice Fujiwara effect making a ridiculous swell fetch for the East Coast. But its the Icon. Quite a tricky forecast.

[zzzh]

[Teban54]

Starting to see some rotation of the CDO (although the "nascent eye" in the last frame is likely just a dry slot).

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1971245172072878476

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Starting to see some rotation of the CDO (although the "nascent eye" in the last frame is likely just a dry slot).

https://i.postimg.cc/FF3rVVmv/goes19-ir ... 251335.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/GtFb3dzt/goes19-vi ... 251335.gif

I think that’s an eye forming

[cheezyWXguy]

Starting to see some rotation of the CDO (although the "nascent eye" in the last frame is likely just a dry slot).

https://i.postimg.cc/FF3rVVmv/goes19-ir ... 251335.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/GtFb3dzt/goes19-vi ... 251335.gif

I think that’s an eye forming

I think it is too. It’s in the area you’d expect to see coc, and it does look like some towers are starting to revolve around it on the north and east side on IR

[Zonacane]

Humberto looks like a hurricane at this point

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1971245172072878476

The 1935 season finished at 8/5/3. Its third and final MH formed on September 23, a day before Humberto.

At the time of its dissipation (October 5), the season was at 5/3/3. Obviously, some tropical storms or even hurricanes could have been missed in the pre-satellite era. If 2025 happened back then, at least two of the first 4 TSes would likely have gone undetected, making the season 6/3/3 or less (not counting 94L, and assuming Humberto becomes a MH).

The rest of 1935 had a C2, a C1, and a TS.

[cycloneye]

I am somewhat surprised that this thread has little traffic because Humberto will be a strong hurricane and may have implications to the CONUS in terms of a possible interaction with future Imelda. And it may threat Bermuda.

[zzzh]

Why is there no recon scheduled for this? It will take some time for 94L to develop, they should at least fly some missions for Humberto during that time

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks like the center relocated more under the heaviest convection

[Travorum]

Microwave pass from an hour ago, banding is wrapping up well in the lower levels and the very beginnings of a core is forming

[cycloneye]

Up to 50kts.

AL, 08, 2025092518, , BEST, 0, 218N, 569W, 50, 1000, TS

[TheAustinMan]

These sorts of organized structures in developing systems can be a lot more fleeting than established hurricanes, but that was certainly a very impressive mid-level eye on microwave imagery earlier. If Humberto keeps that up, it could reach hurricane status a lot earlier than anticipated with plenty of time to navigate an increasingly favorable environment.

Source: TropicalTidbits and NRL