NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Empty shelves in the liquor store this morning. We are getting ready!

[kevin]

Hurricane Imelda is here.

Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...IMELDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

[cheezyWXguy]

Shocking that they found justification for an upgrade. This is up there with Earl ‘98 as ugliest hurricane ever

[kevin]

The recon pass found 982 mb with 10 kt wind with the dropsonde -> 981 mb. The minimum extrapolated pressure found was 981.1 mb. Maybe the NHC thinks recon just missed the exact center of Imelda, which is why they went with 980 mb. Peak FL winds of 77 kt were found which usually translates to ~70 kt at the surface. Since the winds weren't found directly in the eyewall but a bit farther away I think they used the 0.85 outer vortex conversion instead of the usual 0.90 eyewall conversion. This results in 65 kt at the surface.

[TallyTracker]

I woke up surprised to see Hurricane Imelda. I thought it must have greatly improved in organization after looking terrible last night. There is more deep convection but it continues to look like crap. Very surprised it has continued to deepen with that poor organization. I wonder if the baroclinic forcing is already beginning to occur.

[wxman57]

Strong WSW wind shear is hitting both storms. Relative shear on Imelda should drop tomorrow, which may allow it to look more like a hurricane before it passes right over Bermuda.

[kevin]

Wow, despite the way it looks recon found 87 kt peak FL winds. Even with the 0.85 conversion factor accounting for the measurement being farther away from the eyewall, this is sufficient for an upgrade to 75 kt.

[kevin]

NHC goes with 70 kt at 11am, but they do explicitly mention that this may be conservative. Guess they're also understandibly a bit hesistant to up the wind speed considering how Imelda looks right now.

Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Imelda is gradually becoming better organized, with deep convection
increasing near the center and banding features becoming more
evident. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured
flight-level winds that supported hurricane strength, although the
central pressure has not yet fallen very much. The current
intensity is set, perhaps conservatively, at 70 kt.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1973045167092277346

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

This storm looks very weak and I don't see it making it to
A hurricane anytime soon!

Didn't even take 12 hours to become a hurricane.

[HurricaneBelle]

Strong WSW wind shear is hitting both storms. Relative shear on Imelda should drop tomorrow, which may allow it to look more like a hurricane before it passes right over Bermuda.

One Battle After Another isn't just the #1 hit at the box office, it's Bermuda for the next few days.

[cheezyWXguy]

Imelda’s made some pretty solid improvements from this morning, seems to be building a core from the ground up at the moment

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

All models now have Imelda absorbing Humberto tomorrow evening. Great big ET storm after it passes Bermuda.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Imelda is starting to look like a more conventional hurricane, with rotating hot towers around an eye.

[Kazmit]

An actual eye? Not a dry slot?

[storm_in_a_teacup]

All models now have Imelda absorbing Humberto tomorrow evening. Great big ET storm after it passes Bermuda.

Ah, so we get to see the "hurricane cannibalism" I've seen people make YouTube videos about

[OuterBanker]

Well, it seems the OBX made the national news again tonight. Another condemned five homes washed out to sea today on Hatteras Island.

Wind and waves pounding the shore again. 32 kt winds now at Jennetts pier. Wind advisories gusts to 45 through tomorrow.

Bermuda will have a double strike, yet we probably won’t hear of any real damage.

The reason is simple. Here we build multi-million dollar homes out of sticks.

There they are made of bricks.

The big bad wolf lives just up the street.