2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[MetroMike]

Is everyone asleep at the wheel here? The 18z GFS has the makings of what looks like a possible central American Gyre around mid month. That not saying much for that model but its more than what we have seen for model storms in that basin this season

[SFLcane]

Season not over...most threats to the conus have formed right in our backyard last few yrs. Just something to think about.

[LAF92]

Season not over...most threats to the conus have formed right in our backyard last few yrs. Just something to think about.

https://i.imgur.com/2ZnFm3y.png

Interesting enough the GFS has a similar system in the same area at the same timeframe.

[SFLcane]

CAG coming..

[Teban54]

12z ICON has a TS that stalls near SFL for 2+ days:

[Teban54]

In addition to the 10/60 AOI (the recurving hurricane in this GIF), 12z CMC tries to develop yet another MDR TC at the end of this run. There's also a weak, quick Caribbean spin-up that shoots NE.

[SFLcane]

Oh oh… 12z eps

Curious how this evolves.

[Weathertracker96]

Oh oh… 12z eps

Curious how this evolves.

https://i.postimg.cc/nhs1qgxc/IMG-1601.jpg

What timeframe is that? Just wondering so I can be on the look out

[crownweather]

Oh oh… 12z eps

Curious how this evolves.

https://i.postimg.cc/nhs1qgxc/IMG-1601.jpg

What timeframe is that? Just wondering so I can be on the look out

Right around the 15th of this month.


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[floridasun]

wont happen it round my birthday

[SFLcane]

Oh oh… 12z eps

Curious how this evolves.

https://i.postimg.cc/nhs1qgxc/IMG-1601.jpg

What timeframe is that? Just wondering so I can be on the look out

Right around the 15th of this month.


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Hi yes sorry about 7-10 days out. It’s about the only area left that could bring impacts to the conus.

So we watch!

[Weathertracker96]

Oh oh… 12z eps

Curious how this evolves.

https://i.postimg.cc/nhs1qgxc/IMG-1601.jpg

What timeframe is that? Just wondering so I can be on the look out

Right around the 15th of this month.

Thanks for answering. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. If conditions are favorable couple with water temps/steering, this could be a problem.

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[SFLcane]

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.postimg.cc/RVNbxvsg/IMG-1303.gif

If there's any US threats to be had for the remainder of the year they would almost exclusively be from CAG action that gets pulled into the Eastern Gulf, so it's worth monitoring to see if something does indeed get going down there as the MJO makes its return to this part of the world (especially with -ENSO)

[Jr0d]

https://i.postimg.cc/RVNbxvsg/IMG-1303.gif

If there's any US threats to be had for the remainder of the year they would almost exclusively be from CAG action that gets pulled into the Eastern Gulf, so it's worth monitoring to see if something does indeed get going down there as the MJO makes its return to this part of the world (especially with -ENSO)

My thoughts all season is any threat to GoM or Florida will would come the West Caribbean, not from the MDR or even a "home grown" west Atlantic system given where the Atlantic high set up this year, being more of an Azores high than the traditional Bermuda high.

Unlikely we will see a CONUS impact any other way, but not impossible. Nichole a few years ago as was the Yankee Hurricane of 1935 were exceptions of a late season Florida impact coming off the Atlantic.

Its been a wierd season in my opinion so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a late season surprise thst does something like that.

While the GFS ensemble "heat map" is popping 7 days++ for a possible CAG/ West Caribbean system, keep in mind it has done this many times this season(as usual) and has yet to be right. Granted the Canadian alao is hinting at something but it too has had a few phantom storms this season . Until the Euro ensembles start to show some activity over a few runs(vs one or 2 outlier runs) that confirms the others, I will remain skeptical.

[LarryWx]

https://i.postimg.cc/RVNbxvsg/IMG-1303.gif

If there's any US threats to be had for the remainder of the year they would almost exclusively be from CAG action that gets pulled into the Eastern Gulf, so it's worth monitoring to see if something does indeed get going down there as the MJO makes its return to this part of the world (especially with -ENSO)

My thoughts all season is any threat to GoM or Florida will would come the West Caribbean, not from the MDR or even a "home grown" west Atlantic system given where the Atlantic high set up this year, being more of an Azores high than the traditional Bermuda high.

Unlikely we will see a CONUS impact any other way, but not impossible. Nichole a few years ago as was the Yankee Hurricane of 1935 were exceptions of a late season Florida impact coming off the Atlantic.

Its been a wierd season in my opinion so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a late season surprise thst does something like that.

While the GFS ensemble "heat map" is popping 7 days++ for a possible CAG/ West Caribbean system, keep in mind it has done this many times this season(as usual) and has yet to be right. Granted the Canadian alao is hinting at something but it too has had a few phantom storms this season . Until the Euro ensembles start to show some activity over a few runs(vs one or 2 outlier runs) that confirms the others, I will remain skeptical.

The Euro ensembles have looked quite active in the W Caribbean for most of next week just like the GFS ensembles. The latest Euro Weeklies are showing well above climo TC activity in the W Caribbean the week of 10/13-19 (about highest of any run yet) and still elevated vs climo the week of 10/20-26 (if I were in the FL pen., I’d be a bit concerned for midmonth).

[KeysRedWine]

If there's any US threats to be had for the remainder of the year they would almost exclusively be from CAG action that gets pulled into the Eastern Gulf, so it's worth monitoring to see if something does indeed get going down there as the MJO makes its return to this part of the world (especially with -ENSO)

My thoughts all season is any threat to GoM or Florida will would come the West Caribbean, not from the MDR or even a "home grown" west Atlantic system given where the Atlantic high set up this year, being more of an Azores high than the traditional Bermuda high.

Unlikely we will see a CONUS impact any other way, but not impossible. Nichole a few years ago as was the Yankee Hurricane of 1935 were exceptions of a late season Florida impact coming off the Atlantic.

Its been a wierd season in my opinion so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a late season surprise thst does something like that.

While the GFS ensemble "heat map" is popping 7 days++ for a possible CAG/ West Caribbean system, keep in mind it has done this many times this season(as usual) and has yet to be right. Granted the Canadian alao is hinting at something but it too has had a few phantom storms this season . Until the Euro ensembles start to show some activity over a few runs(vs one or 2 outlier runs) that confirms the others, I will remain skeptical.

The Euro ensembles have looked quite active in the W Caribbean for most of next week just like the GFS ensembles. The latest Euro Weeklies are showing well above climo TC activity in the W Caribbean the week of 10/13-19 (about highest of any run yet) and still elevated vs climo the week of 10/20-26 (if I were in the FL pen., I’d be a bit concerned for midmonth).

Please keep us Florida people posted, and thank you for your regular updates.

[SFLcane]

GFS with a 1999 Irene scenario for Southeast Florida.

[floridasun]

GFS with a 1999 Irene scenario for Southeast Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/g0Jrpmth/IMG-1308.gif

wont happen my birthday time

[blp]

GFS with a 1999 Irene scenario for Southeast Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/g0Jrpmth/IMG-1308.gif

I have more faith in the 1999 AVN/MRF (Precursor GFS) run.