
NATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (70/80) (Getting Better Organized)
AL, 95, 2025100618, , BEST, 0, 92N, 375W, 25, 1010, DB

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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (70/80)
I give this even odds of being another Major
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- cycloneye
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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (80/90)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located
about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to become
better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression or
storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves
quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
This system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue
to monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located
about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to become
better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression or
storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves
quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
This system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue
to monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (80/90)
18z Best Track:
AL, 95, 2025100618, , BEST, 0, 92N, 375W, 25, 1010, DB
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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (80/90)
abajan wrote:18z Best Track:AL, 95, 2025100618, , BEST, 0, 92N, 375W, 25, 1010, DB
That appears to be the same as 12z, seems more like its 9.5N and 39W
EDIT: it is the same as above because both are 18z
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- cycloneye
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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (80/90)
IsabelaWeather wrote:abajan wrote:18z Best Track:AL, 95, 2025100618, , BEST, 0, 92N, 375W, 25, 1010, DB
That appears to be the same as 12z, seems more like its 9.5N and 39W
EDIT: it is the same as above because both are 18z
Here is 00z.
AL, 95, 2025100700, , BEST, 0, 106N, 390W, 30, 1009, LO


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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (80/90)
No real changes:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate an area of low pressure located
about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands is becoming better
defined. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing
signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear favorable
for continued development of this system. A tropical depression or
storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves quickly
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system
is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on
Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue to monitor
its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate an area of low pressure located
about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands is becoming better
defined. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing
signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear favorable
for continued development of this system. A tropical depression or
storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves quickly
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system
is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on
Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue to monitor
its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (80/90)
As far as i'm concerned, this is a T.D.
On another note, anyone awake that wants to see something interesting? Take a look at the "True Color" night-time IR satellite loop, and zoom in to 7.5 N and 46.5 W. I've been tracking this tiny but well developed meso feature also moving west just ahead of 97L. It's maintained a tight spin for about the last 3 days but its about to become part of Jerry's diet
On another note, anyone awake that wants to see something interesting? Take a look at the "True Color" night-time IR satellite loop, and zoom in to 7.5 N and 46.5 W. I've been tracking this tiny but well developed meso feature also moving west just ahead of 97L. It's maintained a tight spin for about the last 3 days but its about to become part of Jerry's diet

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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (80/90)
6z Best Track:
AL, 95, 2025100706, , BEST, 0, 108N, 407W, 30, 1009, LO...
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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (80/90)
Looking fantastic this morning. We likely have TS Jerry out there, primed to become another ACE-making major.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (80/90)
Best looking wave of the year....in early October. Go figure.
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I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (80/90)
Looks great today, should get an upgrade to a TD asap and I expect a TS later today.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (80/90)
Yeah, it’s time. 8 AM update should be out soon but I expect a TD or TS at 11.
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- cycloneye
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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (90/90)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located a little more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical depression later
today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of
the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. Interests
there should continue to monitor its progress. For more information
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located a little more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical depression later
today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of
the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. Interests
there should continue to monitor its progress. For more information
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Re: NATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion (90/90)
I'm curious whether NHC might just skip past "depression", and just go straight to an initial advisory for Gilbert..... umm I mean Jerry? 

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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
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