NATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2025100618, , BEST, 0, 92N, 375W, 25, 1010, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I give this even odds of being another Major

[TomballEd]

Cool colors.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located
about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to become
better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression or
storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves
quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
This system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue
to monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[abajan]

18z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2025100618, , BEST, 0, 92N, 375W, 25, 1010, DB

[Teban54]

[IsabelaWeather]

18z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2025100618, , BEST, 0, 92N, 375W, 25, 1010, DB

That appears to be the same as 12z, seems more like its 9.5N and 39W

EDIT: it is the same as above because both are 18z

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2025100618, , BEST, 0, 92N, 375W, 25, 1010, DB

That appears to be the same as 12z, seems more like its 9.5N and 39W

EDIT: it is the same as above because both are 18z

Here is 00z.

AL, 95, 2025100700, , BEST, 0, 106N, 390W, 30, 1009, LO

[zzzh]

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

No real changes:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate an area of low pressure located
about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands is becoming better
defined. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing
signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear favorable
for continued development of this system. A tropical depression or
storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves quickly
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system
is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on
Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue to monitor
its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[chaser1]

As far as i'm concerned, this is a T.D.
On another note, anyone awake that wants to see something interesting? Take a look at the "True Color" night-time IR satellite loop, and zoom in to 7.5 N and 46.5 W. I've been tracking this tiny but well developed meso feature also moving west just ahead of 97L. It's maintained a tight spin for about the last 3 days but its about to become part of Jerry's diet

[abajan]

6z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2025100706, , BEST, 0, 108N, 407W, 30, 1009, LO...

[aspen]

Looking fantastic this morning. We likely have TS Jerry out there, primed to become another ACE-making major.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Best looking wave of the year....in early October. Go figure.

Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[kevin]

Looks great today, should get an upgrade to a TD asap and I expect a TS later today.

[Buck]

Yeah, it’s time. 8 AM update should be out soon but I expect a TD or TS at 11.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located a little more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical depression later
today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of
the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. Interests
there should continue to monitor its progress. For more information
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[chaser1]

I'm curious whether NHC might just skip past "depression", and just go straight to an initial advisory for Gilbert..... umm I mean Jerry?