2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

Besides the possible subtropical system off the East Coast, the GFS ensembles are not alone on Caribbean development. GFS family has company from Canadian and European.

[BobHarlem]

Where's the subtropical thing coming from?

Satellite, the area east of the Bahamas, or that spinning area off the NE tip of the Caribbean? (or both)

[Teban54]

Caribbean signal on the 12z ensembles, EPS (top) and GEFS (bottom). Both signals are weak, but non-zero. I'd even say that the EPS signal is stronger in average intensity.

[MarioProtVI]

I’m very skeptical anything will come out of the WCarib given this weekend’s East Coast system will be meandering and drifting south off the coast. Models have strong shear from the resultant trough axis basically stringing out anything that attempts to form there from late this weekend until about the 18th so unless I see a marked increase in support this just seems like model shenanigans. By that time IIRC the MJO will be moving out and intraseasonal forcing tails off dramatically afterward with perhaps a small chance in November. If the Atlantic doesn’t produce much at all after Jerry then it’s pretty much a wrap for this season IMO.

[LarryWx]

Where's the subtropical thing coming from?

Satellite, the area east of the Bahamas, or that spinning area off the NE tip of the Caribbean? (or both)

https://i.postimg.cc/VvyFJ0NT/66614589.gif

https://i.imgur.com/iM3yOu0.gif

I’d say energywise neither as it starts out mainly extratropical from shortwaves coming off the coast from the Conus.

[AJC3]

Where's the subtropical thing coming from?

Satellite, the area east of the Bahamas, or that spinning area off the NE tip of the Caribbean? (or both)

https://i.postimg.cc/VvyFJ0NT/66614589.gif

https://i.imgur.com/iM3yOu0.gif

I’d say energywise neither as it starts out mainly extratropical from shortwaves coming off the coast from the Conus.

Yep. It's largely in situ development off the FL/GA/SC coasts generated by those short wave troughs. There's a subtle hint (in the GFS, I didn't check other models) of a weak secondary H85 vortex that gets swept NE from the FL straits into that developing XTC off the SE US coast.

[LarryWx]

4th of last 5 UK runs with this:

0Z UK

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.0N 32.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.10.2025 108 10.0N 32.4W 1009 28
0000UTC 13.10.2025 120 11.2N 35.9W 1009 28
1200UTC 13.10.2025 132 13.0N 39.4W 1010 28
0000UTC 14.10.2025 144 14.5N 42.0W 1010 28
1200UTC 14.10.2025 156 16.1N 44.1W 1010 25
0000UTC 15.10.2025 168 17.8N 44.8W 1011 24

[LarryWx]

4th of last 5 UK runs with this:

0Z UK

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.0N 32.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.10.2025 108 10.0N 32.4W 1009 28
0000UTC 13.10.2025 120 11.2N 35.9W 1009 28
1200UTC 13.10.2025 132 13.0N 39.4W 1010 28
0000UTC 14.10.2025 144 14.5N 42.0W 1010 28
1200UTC 14.10.2025 156 16.1N 44.1W 1010 25
0000UTC 15.10.2025 168 17.8N 44.8W 1011 24

5th of last 6 UK with this MDR TC:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 8.5N 21.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 60 8.5N 21.8W 1009 28
1200UTC 11.10.2025 72 8.9N 26.1W 1008 29
0000UTC 12.10.2025 84 9.8N 30.0W 1008 33
1200UTC 12.10.2025 96 11.0N 33.8W 1009 30
0000UTC 13.10.2025 108 12.5N 37.3W 1009 34
1200UTC 13.10.2025 120 14.4N 40.5W 1010 33
0000UTC 14.10.2025 132 16.1N 42.6W 1010 27
1200UTC 14.10.2025 144 17.7N 43.6W 1010 21
0000UTC 15.10.2025 156 19.2N 43.6W 1010 24
1200UTC 15.10.2025 168 21.3N 42.0W 1010 25

[TomballEd]

ECUSA storm that forms on the tail of vorticity might get sub-tropical enough for a name.

[SFLcane]

[Weathertracker96]

:sick:

https://i.postimg.cc/4dNynv7G/vvvv.png

What are your thoughts on this? Some strange storm tracks. Do you think something could still form in that area?

[SFLcane]

:sick:

https://i.postimg.cc/4dNynv7G/vvvv.png

What are your thoughts on this? Some strange storm tracks. Do you think something could still form in that area?

I would be surprised if something does not try to form it has 2 wks or so before the conus door i.e Cuba, FL door closes. Looks pretty favorable till about mid month mjo is about ready to move in.

[AnnularCane]

:sick:

https://i.postimg.cc/4dNynv7G/vvvv.png

Will this ever get a lemon?

[psyclone]

With the CPC showing below normal precip for the next 2 weeks and dry air about to flood the field along with not much on the models it seems reasonable that the window for CONUS TC impacts is closing fast.

[Stormlover70]

With the CPC showing below normal precip for the next 2 weeks and dry air about to flood the field along with not much on the models it seems reasonable that the window for CONUS TC impacts is closing fast.

Great news. Especially for Florida we had enough last year

[emeraldislenc]

I think it still early to say that!

[Stormlover70]

I think it still early to say that!

I agree it is wishful thinking....still watching the Gulf and western Caribbean

[Steve H.]

Well, never say never in October, but the westerlies are kicking in a bit early here in Central Florida. Believe me, I’m glad if not for just a taste of fall weather, which is expected to be short lived as always here near Melbourne. Going to be a rainy couple of days with a low pressure system developing off the coast. Could be interesting. Strange season

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1976286179742843152

[SFLcane]

Ai models hinting a wave could sneak into the caribbean in about 7-10 days. The clock is ticking quickly now for the conus in terms of threats another 15-20 left before things turn hostile.