Texas Fall 2025

[snownado]

SPC currently has a MCD out for a watch, including all of DFW into SE OK and far NW Arkansas.

80% probability...

[Brent]

Literally like one clap of thunder here

[mmmmsnouts]

Watching TCU-Baylor and it started raining hard out of nowhere. All the students trying to stay dry putting their little purple rally towels over their heads

[Texoz]

20% chance of rain for Austin this evening. We need it, but radar isn't looking friendly.

Rain over the last 58 days at Camp Mabry, since Aug 21st.
0.60 8/21
0.07 8/26
0.04 9/6
0.04 9/7
0.00 in October so far
September and October are supposed to be two of the wettest months in Austin. Seven day forecast looks weak for any relief.

[snownado]

Literally like one clap of thunder here

We seem to be tied thus far, lol...

[HockeyTx82]

GFS has snow in West Texas at the very end of the run(weekend after Halloween timeframe)

Euro has some snow in NW Arkansas in the same timeframe

West Texas? Why does it always snow south of DFW?

West Texas has about 1,000 plus feet of elevation on DFW. That can make all the difference.

Oh yeah I know I was joking I meant the city of West Texas.

[cstrunk]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0624.html

Tornado watch for NE TX.

[rwfromkansas]

Got very little here. But at least it’s something again.

[cstrunk]

0.01" here. Looks like Texarkana got rain...

[Stratton23]

Very impressive upper air pattern at day 10 on the GFS, maybe a chilly halloween? Hmmmm

[Brent]

Several days of 60s for highs showing up finally. I think we made it other than a brief hot spell Monday afternoon

[cstrunk]

0.01" here. Looks like Texarkana got rain...

My reverse psychology worked! More storms formed and moved overhead. Ended up with 0.81".

[Brent]

The cold front is here! 30 mph winds all the sudden

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 44 this morning. Finally some cool air..

[TheAustinMan]

Was nice to see some semblance of "cooler" air today, though we're in dire need of additional rainfall, especially in Central Texas where the rainfall deficit proportions over the past month are worse than anywhere else in the country. Several counties have recorded 0% to 2% of their typical rainfall over the last 30 days. Austin-Bergstrom is on 41 days without measurable rain (10th longest streak going back to 1942) and it'll be tied for top 6 if it makes it through Friday without getting any rain. Getting essentially no precipitation in what is ordinarily the second wet season is not an encouraging sign heading into winter. Hopefully the region can squeeze something out of this upcoming weekend's trough, but the latest model runs don't seem very enthusiastic with regards to getting a good Pacific jet going in the longer term. If this keeps up, will definitely need to monitor for fire weather in the winter/early spring following the heavy rains during the past growing season.

Source: I made these graphics. Data is the daily Stage IV Precipitation Analysis.



Source: Texas A&M Forest Service

[Stratton23]

I like the upper air pattern on the GFS/ Euro if you want a chilly halloween across the state, ensembles are definitely trending in the right direction as well, though i want to see the mean trough axis further west more centered across the central US to maximize cold air drainage into texas, but the teleconnections are also trending in the right direction as well

[rwfromkansas]

Got down to 55 this morning. Almost chilly.

[Ntxw]

Absolutely perfect day! Hope we get more of these before it gets cold. I love cold but these room temperature days are perfect for outdoors.

[rwfromkansas]

Absolutely perfect day! Hope we get more of these before it gets cold. I love cold but these room temperature days are perfect for outdoors.

Exactly. I love winter storms but before that I went plenty of room temp days to enjoy the outdoors.

[Brent]

46 in Tulsa this morning. Long overdue

And yeah I definitely want a stretch like this before it's too cold to do much. Because it will be at some point. I was looking the other day and even our warmest winters still get down to 10-15 degrees

It's been closer to zero since 21 interestingly even despite the fact most of the winters since have been above average