Texas Fall 2025

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snownado
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#401 Postby snownado » Sat Oct 18, 2025 9:47 am

SPC currently has a MCD out for a watch, including all of DFW into SE OK and far NW Arkansas.

80% probability...
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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#402 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 18, 2025 11:21 am

Literally like one clap of thunder here :lol:
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mmmmsnouts
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#403 Postby mmmmsnouts » Sat Oct 18, 2025 12:05 pm

Watching TCU-Baylor and it started raining hard out of nowhere. All the students trying to stay dry putting their little purple rally towels over their heads :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#404 Postby Texoz » Sat Oct 18, 2025 12:49 pm

20% chance of rain for Austin this evening. We need it, but radar isn't looking friendly.

Rain over the last 58 days at Camp Mabry, since Aug 21st.
0.60 8/21
0.07 8/26
0.04 9/6
0.04 9/7
0.00 in October so far
September and October are supposed to be two of the wettest months in Austin. Seven day forecast looks weak for any relief.
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snownado
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#405 Postby snownado » Sat Oct 18, 2025 12:57 pm

Brent wrote:Literally like one clap of thunder here :lol:


We seem to be tied thus far, lol...
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#406 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Oct 18, 2025 1:12 pm

Fifty Rock wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Brent wrote:
GFS has snow in West Texas at the very end of the run(weekend after Halloween timeframe) :double: :froze:

Euro has some snow in NW Arkansas in the same timeframe :lol:


West Texas? Why does it always snow south of DFW? :x

West Texas has about 1,000 plus feet of elevation on DFW. That can make all the difference.


Oh yeah I know I was joking I meant the city of West Texas. :D
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cstrunk
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#407 Postby cstrunk » Sat Oct 18, 2025 1:25 pm

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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#408 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Oct 18, 2025 3:39 pm

Got very little here. But at least it’s something again.
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#409 Postby cstrunk » Sat Oct 18, 2025 4:33 pm

0.01" here. Looks like Texarkana got rain... :spam:
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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#410 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Oct 18, 2025 5:45 pm

Very impressive upper air pattern at day 10 on the GFS, maybe a chilly halloween? Hmmmm
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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#411 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 18, 2025 7:20 pm

Several days of 60s for highs showing up finally. I think we made it other than a brief hot spell Monday afternoon
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#412 Postby cstrunk » Sat Oct 18, 2025 9:07 pm

cstrunk wrote:0.01" here. Looks like Texarkana got rain... :spam:


My reverse psychology worked! More storms formed and moved overhead. Ended up with 0.81".
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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#413 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 18, 2025 10:29 pm

The cold front is here! :cold: 30 mph winds all the sudden
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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#414 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Oct 19, 2025 9:01 am

Made it down to 44 this morning. Finally some cool air..
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#415 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Oct 19, 2025 12:46 pm

Was nice to see some semblance of "cooler" air today, though we're in dire need of additional rainfall, especially in Central Texas where the rainfall deficit proportions over the past month are worse than anywhere else in the country. Several counties have recorded 0% to 2% of their typical rainfall over the last 30 days. Austin-Bergstrom is on 41 days without measurable rain (10th longest streak going back to 1942) and it'll be tied for top 6 if it makes it through Friday without getting any rain. Getting essentially no precipitation in what is ordinarily the second wet season is not an encouraging sign heading into winter. Hopefully the region can squeeze something out of this upcoming weekend's trough, but the latest model runs don't seem very enthusiastic with regards to getting a good Pacific jet going in the longer term. If this keeps up, will definitely need to monitor for fire weather in the winter/early spring following the heavy rains during the past growing season.

Source: I made these graphics. Data is the daily Stage IV Precipitation Analysis.
Image
Image

Source: Texas A&M Forest Service
Image
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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#416 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Oct 19, 2025 2:41 pm

I like the upper air pattern on the GFS/ Euro if you want a chilly halloween across the state, ensembles are definitely trending in the right direction as well, though i want to see the mean trough axis further west more centered across the central US to maximize cold air drainage into texas, but the teleconnections are also trending in the right direction as well
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#417 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Oct 19, 2025 3:47 pm

Got down to 55 this morning. Almost chilly.
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#418 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 19, 2025 4:18 pm

Absolutely perfect day! Hope we get more of these before it gets cold. I love cold but these room temperature days are perfect for outdoors.
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#419 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Oct 19, 2025 6:15 pm

Ntxw wrote:Absolutely perfect day! Hope we get more of these before it gets cold. I love cold but these room temperature days are perfect for outdoors.


Exactly. I love winter storms but before that I went plenty of room temp days to enjoy the outdoors.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2025

#420 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 19, 2025 6:21 pm

46 in Tulsa this morning. Long overdue

And yeah I definitely want a stretch like this before it's too cold to do much. Because it will be at some point. I was looking the other day and even our warmest winters still get down to 10-15 degrees

It's been closer to zero since 21 interestingly even despite the fact most of the winters since have been above average :lol:
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