NATL: MELISSA - Models

[Ubuntwo]

About 30% of EPS members now quickly turn north into Hispaniola, while roughly the same percentage of GEFS members miss that trapdoor. An intriguing case of sharp model bifurcation so close in time. Some credit has to be given to the GFS for its incredible level of persistence. I believe GFS was also largely on its own with Lorena this year in the EPAC? It insisted on a turn NE and landfall that never came. Gotta wonder if the GFS will follow in those footsteps with 98L.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1980391573625139617


 https://x.com/FLStormChasers_/status/1980396575357825183

[Blown Away]

18z hurricane models trending S and W and weaker through 5 days.

[canes92]

Just steer far from Florida lol

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

[ronjon]

18z GENC has 6 members impacting FL or in the GOM compared to 3 members at 12z. So maybe a slight shift west.

[Ubuntwo]

18z EC-AI actually dove south back into the Caribbean after landfall in Haiti, a first for the model. The 18z Euro and ICON both shifted NE a fair bit, though both stopped short of a landfall in Haiti before getting trapped.

[Fancy1002]

18z EC-AI actually dove south back into the Caribbean after landfall in Haiti, a first for the model. The 18z Euro and ICON both shifted NE a fair bit, though both stopped short of a landfall in Haiti before getting trapped.

Pretty sure that diving back into the Caribbean has happened a few times over the last 3 runs.

[Ubuntwo]

18z EC-AI actually dove south back into the Caribbean after landfall in Haiti, a first for the model. The 18z Euro and ICON both shifted NE a fair bit, though both stopped short of a landfall in Haiti before getting trapped.

Pretty sure that diving back into the Caribbean has happened a few times over the last 3 runs.

You're right that the 6z and 12z both showed the envelope getting pushed back south, but with the mid level vort dissipating or getting strung out. These runs left behind a diffuse low. The 18z is the first where it remains a coherent tropical cyclone.

[Fancy1002]

Big shift to the icon, let’s see if this is a trend.

[Fancy1002]

GFS is still being very consistent.

[LarryWx]

More 0Z global ops

1. Like the GFS the UKMET remains quite consistent with the track and this time the text has it as a TC through hour 156, after which it weakens on approach to the NE Nicaraguan coast. The direction of movement starts off mainly WNW (with the furthest N being at 15.3N, which is actually the furthest N of recent runs) followed by W and then WSW; strongest it gets is a minimal TS and lowest SLP 1004. At hour 156, the 0Z UKMET is a whopping 1,500 miles WSW of the 0Z GFS!

TROPICAL STORM 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 69.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.10.2025 0 11.1N 69.0W 1009 30
1200UTC 21.10.2025 12 14.0N 71.5W 1008 35
0000UTC 22.10.2025 24 14.0N 73.6W 1006 31
1200UTC 22.10.2025 36 14.2N 74.3W 1005 34
0000UTC 23.10.2025 48 15.3N 75.2W 1004 31
1200UTC 23.10.2025 60 15.3N 75.8W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.10.2025 72 15.3N 76.8W 1005 28
1200UTC 24.10.2025 84 15.3N 77.3W 1005 27
0000UTC 25.10.2025 96 14.7N 78.0W 1005 25
1200UTC 25.10.2025 108 14.6N 79.1W 1006 26
0000UTC 26.10.2025 120 14.2N 80.6W 1004 23
1200UTC 26.10.2025 132 14.4N 81.8W 1005 25
0000UTC 27.10.2025 144 13.9N 82.5W 1004 20
1200UTC 27.10.2025 156 14.1N 82.8W 1005 18
0000UTC 28.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING

——————
2. CMC first moves W and then WNW/NW to Jamaica as a TS followed by SW and then abrupt turn to N and then NNE/NE over C Cuba/NC Bahamas as a cat 3 H followed by a turn back to the N with it ending on a heading toward Cape Cod as it gets caught on the E side of a strong trough/upper low
————

Edit 3. Euro just W of Jamaica, EC Cuba to C Bahamas (MH)

[kevin]

00z Google Deepmind (GDM) ensemble. While 06z ICON is trending north towards GFS, GDM is still more heavily leaning towards the western route. The average of all members peaks at a cat 3. But there are some extreme cases, one even peaks at 889mb/177kt. 73% of members have a hurricane, 44% have a MH and 20% a cat 5.

[kevin]

06z GFS landfalls within 3 days at 969 mb.

[Kazmit]

Excited to see an epic fail from either the GFS or the Euro. Remember, the GFS showed Jerry becoming a major hurricane as it was actively dissipating.

[LarryWx]

6Z Euro 144: significant shift NE vs 0Z 150 and 12Z 162 (which were both 150-200 miles SSW to SW of Jamaica) with the 6Z 40 miles E of Jamaica. That’s a 200-250 mile NE shift from the 0Z/12Z!

[SFLcane]

6Z Euro 144: significant shift NE vs 0Z 150 and 12Z 162 (which were both 150-200 miles SSW to SW of Jamaica) with the 6Z 40 miles E of Jamaica. That’s a 200-250 mile NE shift from the 0Z/12Z!

Fyi..

[LarryWx]

6Z Euro 144: significant shift NE vs 0Z 150 and 12Z 162 (which were both 150-200 miles SSW to SW of Jamaica) with the 6Z 40 miles E of Jamaica. That’s a 200-250 mile NE shift from the 0Z/12Z!

Fyi..

https://i.postimg.cc/43rqMc8M/IMG-1407.jpg

Thanks. Yes, the 6Z Euro op is near the most NE 6Z EPS members. The large majority are 300-500 miles WSW to SW of the Euro op!

[wzrgirl1]

6Z Euro 144: significant shift NE vs 0Z 150 and 12Z 162 (which were both 150-200 miles SSW to SW of Jamaica) with the 6Z 40 miles E of Jamaica. That’s a 200-250 mile NE shift from the 0Z/12Z!

Fyi..

https://i.postimg.cc/43rqMc8M/IMG-1407.jpg

Thanks. Yes, the 6Z Euro op is near the most NE 6Z EPS members. The large majority are 300-500 miles WSW to SW of the Euro op!

So in terms of these models, the operational versus the others which is the one we’re supposed to rely on?