NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
Looks like NHC with their TWO is really slowing down future Melissa with the 7 day graphic only extending to JAM. It also isn't really showing the fast right hand hook into DR from the GFS so perhaps NHC is discounting that solution at the moment.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
I thought the graphic was were the future storm might form but not where it might go. To me that makes more sense!
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (70/90)
cycloneye wrote:There could be a possibbility that NHC issue advisories as PTC. What do the members think about that?
https://i.imgur.com/C3gP6dl.gif
Well...I think this storm is a bit tricky given how quite a few models seem to think that this isn't going to make landfall immediately but rather lumber around and stall offshore for a few days at least. Are PTCs given to systems that have a high chance of making landfall at a certain point in the upcoming days, or can that also encompass non-direct land impacts (like rainfall from outer bands)?
I'm also starting to see some rotation in that gif too, so it does look like this system is going to be named fairly soon.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
ronjon wrote:Looks like NHC with their TWO is really slowing down future Melissa with the 7 day graphic only extending to JAM. It also isn't really showing the fast right hand hook into DR from the GFS so perhaps NHC is discounting that solution at the moment.
The TWO is intended to indicate areas of formation alone, not the forecast track after formation. So even if, as a hypothetical, NHC's beliefs are "70% chance that Melissa forms and moves towards Hispaniola quickly without stalling, within 7 days", the TWO still won't (or shouldn't) show a Hispaniola landfall.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
ronjon wrote:Looks like NHC with their TWO is really slowing down future Melissa with the 7 day graphic only extending to JAM. It also isn't really showing the fast right hand hook into DR from the GFS so perhaps NHC is discounting that solution at the moment.
The ONLY reason the development area is contracting is that development is imminent (90/90)...so we have a real good idea where genesis will be. that tells us nothing of what happens after genesis. It feels like we have been tracking this one for a couple months already...and we have a long way to go...oh my..
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
00z Best Track: More slow now at 13 mph.

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11
AL, 98, 2025102100, , BEST, 0, 141N, 688W, 35, 1007, DB

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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
Sunset


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NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
The chaotic late October upper atmosphere sure adds uncertainty. It seems that two troughs will come through - one late this week, and another around the middle of next week. This looks like a blend between Michelle, Wilma and Sandy. It all depends on timing of this storm's development, intensification and the upper level features.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
CrazyC83 wrote:The chaotic late October upper atmosphere sure adds uncertainty. It seems that two troughs will come through - one late this week, and another around the middle of next week. This looks like a blend between Michelle, Wilma and Sandy. It all depends on timing of this storm's development, intensification and the upper level features.
Do you agree that South Florida shouldn’t let their guard down just yet. I keep trying to tell some friends in the Miami area, not to dismiss the storm, but they keep saying, no I was told it would go over either Cuba or Haiti.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
CrazyC83 wrote:The chaotic late October upper atmosphere sure adds uncertainty. It seems that two troughs will come through - one late this week, and another around the middle of next week. This looks like a blend between Michelle, Wilma and Sandy. It all depends on timing of this storm's development, intensification and the upper level features.
Fun fact: Melissa, the next name on this year's list, replaced Michelle after 2001.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/V5yI7OE.png
Looking at that, the NHC isn't going to do anything with this until recon gets out there.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
Lookin' good now, probably a soon-to-be TS if this keeps up for several more hours


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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
1. Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that the broad
area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
become better defined, with winds near 45 mph, though it still lacks
a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical storm is
expected to form later today while the system moves slowly over the
central Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible
over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days.
Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should
monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk of heavy rain
and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week. For
additional information on this system, including Gale Warnings,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
1. Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that the broad
area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
become better defined, with winds near 45 mph, though it still lacks
a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical storm is
expected to form later today while the system moves slowly over the
central Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible
over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days.
Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should
monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk of heavy rain
and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week. For
additional information on this system, including Gale Warnings,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
REDHurricane wrote:Lookin' good now, probably a soon-to-be TS if this keeps up for several more hours
https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExamNoYWVjaW1sdHZsd2kwNWVjNjRrazVlMzltcmFub3hkdTRtYXh2dCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/MezMN1WOViymKWJcwX/giphy.gif
Just looking at night-time IR, I'd bet a peanut butter and pickled herring sandwich

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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/612/tO8VTs.gif
It appears Bonaire got slammed with thunderstorms galore for a brief period. Quite unusual for that island, whose climate has often been compared to that of a desert—ditto for the nearby isles of Aruba and Curaçao.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)
6z Best Track:
AL, 98, 2025102106, , BEST, 0, 140N, 698W, 40, 1004, DB
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