NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

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ronjon
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NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#81 Postby ronjon » Mon Oct 20, 2025 6:36 pm

Looks like NHC with their TWO is really slowing down future Melissa with the 7 day graphic only extending to JAM. It also isn't really showing the fast right hand hook into DR from the GFS so perhaps NHC is discounting that solution at the moment.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#82 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Oct 20, 2025 6:50 pm

I thought the graphic was were the future storm might form but not where it might go. To me that makes more sense!
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (70/90)

#83 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Oct 20, 2025 7:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:There could be a possibbility that NHC issue advisories as PTC. What do the members think about that?

https://i.imgur.com/C3gP6dl.gif


Well...I think this storm is a bit tricky given how quite a few models seem to think that this isn't going to make landfall immediately but rather lumber around and stall offshore for a few days at least. Are PTCs given to systems that have a high chance of making landfall at a certain point in the upcoming days, or can that also encompass non-direct land impacts (like rainfall from outer bands)?

I'm also starting to see some rotation in that gif too, so it does look like this system is going to be named fairly soon.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#84 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 20, 2025 7:27 pm

ronjon wrote:Looks like NHC with their TWO is really slowing down future Melissa with the 7 day graphic only extending to JAM. It also isn't really showing the fast right hand hook into DR from the GFS so perhaps NHC is discounting that solution at the moment.

The TWO is intended to indicate areas of formation alone, not the forecast track after formation. So even if, as a hypothetical, NHC's beliefs are "70% chance that Melissa forms and moves towards Hispaniola quickly without stalling, within 7 days", the TWO still won't (or shouldn't) show a Hispaniola landfall.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#85 Postby psyclone » Mon Oct 20, 2025 7:32 pm

ronjon wrote:Looks like NHC with their TWO is really slowing down future Melissa with the 7 day graphic only extending to JAM. It also isn't really showing the fast right hand hook into DR from the GFS so perhaps NHC is discounting that solution at the moment.


The ONLY reason the development area is contracting is that development is imminent (90/90)...so we have a real good idea where genesis will be. that tells us nothing of what happens after genesis. It feels like we have been tracking this one for a couple months already...and we have a long way to go...oh my..
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#86 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2025 8:06 pm

00z Best Track: More slow now at 13 mph.

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11


AL, 98, 2025102100, , BEST, 0, 141N, 688W, 35, 1007, DB


Image
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#87 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 20, 2025 8:20 pm

Image
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#88 Postby WaveBreaking » Mon Oct 20, 2025 8:55 pm

Sunset


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NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#89 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 20, 2025 8:57 pm

The chaotic late October upper atmosphere sure adds uncertainty. It seems that two troughs will come through - one late this week, and another around the middle of next week. This looks like a blend between Michelle, Wilma and Sandy. It all depends on timing of this storm's development, intensification and the upper level features.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#90 Postby Fancy1002 » Mon Oct 20, 2025 9:12 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The chaotic late October upper atmosphere sure adds uncertainty. It seems that two troughs will come through - one late this week, and another around the middle of next week. This looks like a blend between Michelle, Wilma and Sandy. It all depends on timing of this storm's development, intensification and the upper level features.

Do you agree that South Florida shouldn’t let their guard down just yet. I keep trying to tell some friends in the Miami area, not to dismiss the storm, but they keep saying, no I was told it would go over either Cuba or Haiti.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#91 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 20, 2025 9:29 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The chaotic late October upper atmosphere sure adds uncertainty. It seems that two troughs will come through - one late this week, and another around the middle of next week. This looks like a blend between Michelle, Wilma and Sandy. It all depends on timing of this storm's development, intensification and the upper level features.

Fun fact: Melissa, the next name on this year's list, replaced Michelle after 2001.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#92 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2025 9:56 pm

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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#93 Postby zzzh » Mon Oct 20, 2025 10:32 pm

Image
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#94 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Oct 20, 2025 10:43 pm



Looking at that, the NHC isn't going to do anything with this until recon gets out there.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#95 Postby REDHurricane » Mon Oct 20, 2025 11:23 pm

Lookin' good now, probably a soon-to-be TS if this keeps up for several more hours

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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#96 Postby REDHurricane » Mon Oct 20, 2025 11:24 pm

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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#97 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 21, 2025 12:46 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025


1. Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that the broad
area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
become better defined, with winds near 45 mph, though it still lacks
a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical storm is
expected to form later today while the system moves slowly over the
central Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible
over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days.
Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should
monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk of heavy rain
and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week. For
additional information on this system, including Gale Warnings,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#98 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 21, 2025 1:22 am



Just looking at night-time IR, I'd bet a peanut butter and pickled herring sandwich :18: that there now are west winds at the surface
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#99 Postby abajan » Tue Oct 21, 2025 1:23 am


It appears Bonaire got slammed with thunderstorms galore for a brief period. Quite unusual for that island, whose climate has often been compared to that of a desert—ditto for the nearby isles of Aruba and Curaçao.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#100 Postby abajan » Tue Oct 21, 2025 1:46 am

6z Best Track:
AL, 98, 2025102106, , BEST, 0, 140N, 698W, 40, 1004, DB
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