NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Sanibel]

We'll see how the tried and true "Graveyard Of The Caribbean" plays out...

[Hurricane Mike]

Noon Video Update on Melissa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqThhWAbolg

[chaser1]

How would a cut off low affect the track of future Melissa?

Fujiwhara effect

I’m wondering if the low is deep enough and Melissa takes a more western track, could the low force Melissa just barely into South Florida making a direct impact on Miami.

That'll have everything to do with the timing of both Melissa as well as the low itself. Perhaps more important though, this will largely depend on how positively tilted that trough might be (as illustrated in the Euro 210 hr. 500mb graphic), verses perhaps cutting off altogether. A progressively negative tilt to a sharp trough would far more quickly enhance a poleward turn. It always comes down to timing though.

[Kazmit]

I’m not sure who took it upon themselves to edit the 2025 season Wikipedia to their liking, but this is rather ominous.

[chaser1]

I’m not sure who took it upon themselves to edit the 2025 season Wikipedia to their liking, but this is rather ominous.

https://i.ibb.co/6RddJpvp/IMG-5447.png

That's funny - The new "Wiki forecast". Hey, props to reaching "Olga" though. I just love that name for a tropical cyclone.

[aspen]

Melissa could be the big one this year, folks. In terms of impact at least. Would be remarkable if she challenged Erin or Humberto strength wise but she won’t need to even come close to wreak havoc.

It would be unprecedented if Melissa were to become a Cat 5. No other year would have that high of a proportion of storms make it to Cat 5 intensity.

Right now I’m a little skeptical of the further west track model runs and think we may see something similar to the GFS/HWRF, where it stalls south of Hispaniola for a few days before running over The Shredder.

[BobHarlem]

Center outrunning the convection. It's still 2025.

[Teban54]

Center outrunning the convection. It's still 2025.

https://i.postimg.cc/y6GgdNwq/58251320.gif

Reminds me of Jerry, when GFS and HWRF repeatedly insisted that its exposed LLC will magically stack in 24 hours. It never did.

The big difference, though... A disorganized Jerry kills its future potential, but a disorganized Melissa increases its chance to enter Western Caribbean and bomb out there.

[cycloneye]

Looks like plane avoids a MLC? Maybe it reforms?

[chaser1]

Wow, am I seeing this right? LLC appears to be at 14.4N and 72.6W. Recon is gonna have to turn on the afterburners and head further west if they're going to find an LLC. Models will continue to struggle with this until a better vertically aligned column is established. I'm not sure I see that happening until early tomorrow morning at the earliest (but more likely not until late tomorrow).

[AutoPenalti]

Unless that LLC dissipates and a new one forms under the MLC, this may go further west than what models have it now… it’s still under low level flow.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

This may be the worst humanitarian disaster of the year. Not a huge wind event but some of these rainfall totals will devastate Haiti.

[SouthFLTropics]

This thing is hauling butt to the west. If the naked swirl doesn't die out, I can see it getting much further west than what the models are showing. Seems unlikely to slow down anytime soon.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I’m not sure who took it upon themselves to edit the 2025 season Wikipedia to their liking, but this is rather ominous.

https://i.ibb.co/6RddJpvp/IMG-5447.png

That's funny - The new "Wiki forecast". Hey, props to reaching "Olga" though. I just love that name for a tropical cyclone.

For me, Melissa is ironic because the main human character of my hurricane stories and comics is called Melissa, and she has two hurricanes that follow her around and drive her nuts. So this means at some point, Melissa needs to meet Melissa

(AnnularCane was of course the one who pointed out this otherwise obvious thing to me )

[Blown Away]

INIT 21/1500Z 14.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.8N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.3N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.7N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 16.1N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 16.9N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

If the exposed LLC racing W continues to be Melissa and doesn't reform, then it will reach the predicted 24 hour longitude of 73.5 very soon, per the 11am NHC update.

[Iceresistance]

I seriously do not like where Melissa is at and where it's going, Melissa has the potential to be an extremely powerful hurricane if it can manage to get the inner core going with the shear relaxing. Melissa is heading for the very high Ocean Heat Content


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b39KN.png

[ThomasW]

New center forming under convection if trends persist. If so, GFS takes a win,Haiti a loss. Sloppy C1-C2 there still could be devastating.

[AnnularCane]

I’m not sure who took it upon themselves to edit the 2025 season Wikipedia to their liking, but this is rather ominous.

https://i.ibb.co/6RddJpvp/IMG-5447.png

That's funny - The new "Wiki forecast". Hey, props to reaching "Olga" though. I just love that name for a tropical cyclone.

I wouldn't mind an end-of-season Olga.

[zhukm29]

I’m not sure who took it upon themselves to edit the 2025 season Wikipedia to their liking, but this is rather ominous.

https://i.ibb.co/6RddJpvp/IMG-5447.png

That's funny - The new "Wiki forecast". Hey, props to reaching "Olga" though. I just love that name for a tropical cyclone.

I wouldn't mind an end-of-season Olga.

This naming list has ended at Olga quite a few times so it would be fitting.

[LarryWx]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/NMSjBB4p/goes19-vis-13-L-202510211615-1.gif [/url]

INIT 21/1500Z 14.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.8N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.3N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.7N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 16.1N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 16.9N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

If the exposed LLC racing W continues to be Melissa and doesn't reform, then it will reach the predicted 24 hour longitude of 73.5 very soon, per the 11am NHC update.

That means it would be tracking closely to the Euro, UKMET, CMC, and JMA vs the further east GFS/Icon.