NATL: MELISSA - Models

[LarryWx]

The 12z CMC is surely interesting.

Hi, you can’t make a statement like that and not post the graphic lol

My apologizes lol. I still get stuck on how to post pictures on here. But the CMC has the system going more west and NE through central Cuba. But looking at the 12z GEFS, the ensembles seem more spread out than before. Hopefully recon will clear all this up.

The last 4 CMC runs have been pretty similar.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: initialization of 14.7N, 70.8W is a bit NE of the actual NHC 12Z location. For the most part it’s sticking to its guns although its most N point is over a degree further N (16.6N vs 15.3N on 0Z). It loses TC status once approaching the Nicaragua/Honduras border:

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 70.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2025 0 14.7N 70.8W 1007 36
0000UTC 22.10.2025 12 14.7N 73.1W 1005 33
1200UTC 22.10.2025 24 15.0N 74.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 23.10.2025 36 15.5N 75.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 23.10.2025 48 16.1N 76.4W 1005 35
0000UTC 24.10.2025 60 16.4N 76.4W 1005 27
1200UTC 24.10.2025 72 16.6N 76.7W 1005 30
0000UTC 25.10.2025 84 16.4N 78.0W 1005 27
1200UTC 25.10.2025 96 15.7N 79.7W 1006 25
0000UTC 26.10.2025 108 15.1N 81.5W 1005 23
1200UTC 26.10.2025 120 15.0N 82.8W 1005 24
0000UTC 27.10.2025 132 15.5N 84.0W 1006 22
1200UTC 27.10.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

[ronjon]

12z GFS has Melissa down to 999 mb by 8 pm tonight and 989 mb by 2 pm tomorrow. Seems unlikely.

[chaser1]

12z GFS has Melissa down to 999 mb by 8 pm tonight and 989 mb by 2 pm tomorrow. Seems unlikely.

Agreed; Furthermore, I tend to agree with GCANE (perhaps from the Discussion thread) that we may well see Melissa's LLC further detached and tilted from it's MLC during the day. This appears quite evident on present visible satellite as the day has progressed thus far. The LLC seems to be advancing more quickly westward, likely a result of the continued strong UL wind shear. Recon will verify whether Melissa is already near 1000 mb or not but I think that the GFS short term intensity forecast is suspect which would seem to favor subsequent ensemble forecasts later today/tonight to trend further west and northwest. I'm guessing we'll see tonight's GFS 0Z forecast to significantly change and at minimum shift westward.

[Woofde]

12z GFS has Melissa down to 999 mb by 8 pm tonight and 989 mb by 2 pm tomorrow. Seems unlikely.

Agreed; Furthermore, I tend to agree with GCANE (perhaps from the Discussion thread) that we may well see Melissa's LLC further detached and tilted from it's MLC during the day. This appears quite evident on present visible satellite as the day has progressed thus far. The LLC seems to be advancing more quickly westward, likely a result of the continued strong UL wind shear. Recon will verify whether Melissa is already near 1000 mb or not but I think that the GFS short term intensity forecast is suspect which would seem to favor subsequent ensemble forecasts later today/tonight to trend further west and northwest. I'm guessing we'll see tonight's GFS 0Z forecast to significantly change and at minimum shift westward.

Yeah I agree. That LLC is moving right out from underneath the system. We see this quite often with sheared systems. When the convection significantly slows down that'll be the sign it's left the area of high shear and it can begin to actually build a structure.

The GFS is overdoing short term intensification as usual. Odds of missing the weakness it shows are high.

[chaser1]

12z GFS has Melissa down to 999 mb by 8 pm tonight and 989 mb by 2 pm tomorrow. Seems unlikely.

Agreed; Furthermore, I tend to agree with GCANE (perhaps from the Discussion thread) that we may well see Melissa's LLC further detached and tilted from it's MLC during the day. This appears quite evident on present visible satellite as the day has progressed thus far. The LLC seems to be advancing more quickly westward, likely a result of the continued strong UL wind shear. Recon will verify whether Melissa is already near 1000 mb or not but I think that the GFS short term intensity forecast is suspect which would seem to favor subsequent ensemble forecasts later today/tonight to trend further west and northwest. I'm guessing we'll see tonight's GFS 0Z forecast to significantly change and at minimum shift westward.

Yeah I agree. That LLC is moving right out from underneath the system. We see this quite often with sheared systems. When the convection significantly slows down that'll be the sign it's left the area of high shear and it can begin to actually build a structure.

The GFS is overdoing short term intensification as usual. Odds of missing the weakness it shows are high.

I'm still torn on whether Melissa will miss this first weakness but I totally agree with you that its present motion and vertical structure would suggest a higher chance of missing it. If/when that occurs roughly around Thursday night (by the time a 2nd impulse drops into this first trough), then I have to think Melissa's future track will become far clearer from that point forward.

[Pelicane]

Euro takes this right over Jamaica as a very powerful hurricane, then shoots it NE.

[Iceresistance]

I'm not sure if anyone has posted this, but this is insanity
29 members go for Category 5 intensity, and one of them peaks at 174 knots

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b39Ku.png

[Stormlover70]

I'm not sure if anyone has posted this, but this is insanity
29 members go for Category 5 intensity, and one of them peaks at 174 knots
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b39Ku.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b39Ku.png

conus seems safe at this point

[sasha_B]

I'm not sure if anyone has posted this, but this is insanity
29 members go for Category 5 intensity, and one of them peaks at 174 knots
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b39Ku.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b39Ku.png

Do you know what the pressure minimum is for that 174-kt member? The deepest low that I could spot was 890 hPa, but I might've missed one. 174/890 isn't quite the 182/878 member that the FNV ensemble gave us a couple days ago but is still impressively extreme. The more striking thing about today's 12z is the sheer proportion of member lows that reach MH/Cat 5/sub-900. When the mean wind maximum is near Category 4 & only one member shows anything less than a solid hurricane, that's about as aggressive an ensemble spread as you'll find for a system this early in its lifecycle.
Thankfully this particular ensemble remains an outlier with regard to its bullishness on Melissa's potential intensity....and it's hard to put any stock in hypothetical Wilma/Patricia-type solutions when the storm - at least for the moment - seems to be struggling to organise much at all.

[Iceresistance]

I'm not sure if anyone has posted this, but this is insanity
29 members go for Category 5 intensity, and one of them peaks at 174 knots
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b39Ku.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b39Ku.png

Do you know what the pressure minimum is for that 174-kt member? The deepest low that I could spot was 890 hPa, but I might've missed one. 174/890 isn't quite the 182/878 member that the FNV ensemble gave us a couple days ago but is still impressively extreme. The more striking thing about today's 12z is the sheer proportion of member lows that reach MH/Cat 5/sub-900. When the mean wind maximum is near Category 4 & only one member shows anything less than a solid hurricane, that's about as aggressive an ensemble spread as you'll find for a system this early in its lifecycle.
Thankfully this particular ensemble remains an outlier with regard to its bullishness on Melissa's potential intensity....and it's hard to put any stock in hypothetical Wilma/Patricia-type solutions when the storm - at least for the moment - seems to be struggling to organise much at all.

Do you have an image of the 182/878 member run?

[Cachondo23]

Euro takes this right over Jamaica as a very powerful hurricane, then shoots it NE.

That could be catastrophic for Jamaica.

[Hayabusa]

I'm not sure if anyone has posted this, but this is insanity
29 members go for Category 5 intensity, and one of them peaks at 174 knots
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b39Ku.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b39Ku.png

What I noticed from the FNV3 over the Western Pacific, it tends to overhype the intensity but it's much weaker what happened in reality.

[sasha_B]

Do you have an image of the 182/878 member run?

I don't want to upload a redundant/outdated image but it's post #39 in this thread - member 40 from the 19 October 6z FNV3 run at +198h.

[GCANE]

Chances going down quickly for a hit on Haiti.
Majority has a path to the West Carib

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 211800.png

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 210600.png

[Kazmit]

Chances going down quickly for a hit on Haiti.
Majority has a path to the West Carib

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 211800.png

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 210600.png

And yet, the 18z GFS has a DR landfall.

[TomballEd]

Euro takes this right over Jamaica as a very powerful hurricane, then shoots it NE.

That could be catastrophic for Jamaica.

Beyond catastrophic.

[aspen]

18z GFS has an even sharper turn to the NE this run, despite an initially weaker vortex. It really wants to kick this out of the Caribbean as fast as possible.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Euro takes this right over Jamaica as a very powerful hurricane, then shoots it NE.

That could be catastrophic for Jamaica.

Beyond catastrophic. https://i.imgur.com/xUlMs4M.png

Isolated totals over 58 inches. That’s almost five feet of rain.

[blp]

Outside of a center reformation chances of GFS verifying going down fast.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980759054013059188