NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Teban54]

Significant improvement over the time of this loop. Assuming no more hiccups, a hurricane at the 11am EDT advisory seems like a given.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Should be a hurricane later this morning.

[cycloneye]

Big improvement this morning at TDR from last nights mission.

[eastcoastFL]

A very rough couple of days and weeks ahead for our friends in the Caribbean. There haven't been any major track changes so it appears the CONUS will be spared.

[cycloneye]

The meso floater.

[abajan]

12z Best Track:

AL, 13, 2025102512, , BEST, 0, 163N, 750W, 60, 982, TS...

[hipshot]

12z Best Track:

AL, 13, 2025102512, , BEST, 0, 163N, 750W, 60, 982, TS...

Isn't that a more westerly track?

[LarryWx]

12z Best Track:

AL, 13, 2025102512, , BEST, 0, 163N, 750W, 60, 982, TS...

Isn't that a more westerly track?

She’s hardly been moving as she was at 16.3N, 75.0W at 5AM EDT.

[Teban54]

Looks to me like dual hot towers are now firing around 16.5N 75.0W, roughly where the center is.

[Hurricane2022]

Of course Melissa stopped from intensifying just when recon gets there
 https://x.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1982077885809914227

[cheezyWXguy]

The pressure gradient looks a lot tighter on the recon data this morning. Windfield still a little loose but much closer to being axisymmetric. Seems like a good bet that faster intensification will begin in the next few hours.

[BobHarlem]

Whole "eye" visible on jamaica radar now

[Sanibel]

Outflow feathering NW quadrant...

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at Jamaican radar right now there's some pretty clear wobbles due west.

[ThomasW]

Seems odd that the pressure's barely dropping per recon. Maybe early EWRC onset based on that radar data?

[cycloneye]

Breaking: Looks like the AF plane has issues as it returns to Curacao and will not make a pass before the 11 AM advisory.

[GCANE]

ARCHER is calling Hurricane

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... ndex.shtml

[cheezyWXguy]

Seems odd that the pressure's barely dropping per recon. Maybe early EWRC onset based on that radar data?

Since we haven’t really had an eyewall until recently, it’s probably more apt to call it continued core consolidation, but yeah this is probably the hold up at the moment. Maybe some dry air entrainment or remnant effects from the shear last night slowing the rate of strengthening. I think this will work itself out over the next few hours.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ARCHER is calling Hurricane

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... ndex.shtml

Even if it's borderline I'd imagine the NHC will upgrade at this point for messaging... because it's clear within an hour or two of becoming one regardless.

[cycloneye]

There will be a gap of a few hours without recon data until the next two missions get going late this afternoon and evening.